Scrat wrote:For argument's sake, let's say it lags by 1 day. Why a day? BECAUSE IT DOESN'T MATTER TO THE POINT I MADE. All that matters is that it lags changes in the economy, which lag economic policies. Those who want to credit Clinton policies with the improving employment picture are at odds with the fact that it began improving before Clinton took office.
Of course it matters to the point you made.
Say unemployment rates lag, indirectly, economic policies by 2 years. That means that Bush I gets the credit for the fall in unemployment until 1994. But the thing is, unemployment
kept falling. For almost six more years. One reduction followed another followed another. At some point in time, some number of years after the end of Bush I's term, that would refer back to Clinton-era policies instead, right? Unemployment fell in 1999; that would lag economic policies from 1998, or 1996, or even 1994 - but can it all still reasonably be credited to the policies of
eight years earlier?
Moreover, if Clinton's economic policies were bad enough to have caused the surge in unemployment at the very end and immediately following his term, why didnt they once disturb the continuing fall and fall of unemployment in the previous seven years?
Change the definition of the lag to 1 year or 3 years, it doesn't make any difference. After some number of years, the "lagging" argument loses its force. The equivalent of saying that even the further fall in unemployment in, say, 1996 or 1998 was still all thanks to the policies of 1992 under Bush I would be that the current fall in unemployment is still thanks to Clinton.
Oh and could you stop shouting? I'm glad you're back and stuff, but there's no need to get
that loud about it ;-)