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Impeachment: The Process Begins

 
 
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 08:13 pm
Here we go....

Impeachment is at its core a political process. There will be lot's of talk about law and principle and Constitution, but all that really counts are the votes.

The Democrats are going to make their case to the American public. If the public turns dramatically, especially in red states, then Trump will lose. The Republicans are going to try to emphasize that this is a political stunt. Of course, impeachment is always a political stunt, sometimes it is a useful and warranted political stunt.

A big part of this will be what Trump said in his phone call with the Georgian. I believe this will have to be made public (the American people will punish anything that looks like a cover up). And the whistle blower report will also come up.

The prediction markets set the odds at 52% that he will be impeached in his first term, and 31% that he will be impeached this year. The odds of conviction are at 13% with a 26% chance that he will not finish his first term (I assume people think he may resign).

In this thread, I will be focusing on the politics.



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Type: Question • Score: 16 • Views: 2,968 • Replies: 266

 
maxdancona
 
  3  
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 08:16 pm
@maxdancona,
The Senate passed a non-binding resolution to release the whistleblower report. This passed 100-0 (every Republican voted yes).
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -4  
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 09:18 pm
It's time to start laying the groundwork for impeaching the next Democratic president (whenever that may be).

It would be good to hit them with impeachment proceedings as soon as they take the oath of office.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 09:32 pm
@oralloy,
Oralloy, you don't seem to realize that somethings are worse than other things. Let me put this in terms you might find easier to understand.

- If someone shoots their wife, that is wrong.
- If someone fires their gun in self defense, it is not wrong.

The argument you are making is that if shooting in self-defense is allowed, than shooting your wife should be allowed too.

In truth, these are two completely different circumstances. Only one is a crime.
Sturgis
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 09:35 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
...A big part of this will be what Trump said in his phone call with the Georgian.


Wait! Are you saying he also discussed the U.S.A. elections and the Bidens with Salome Zourabichvili? I am aware (as likely you are too), that Mr.Trump had allegedly talked these things through with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky; however, I didn't know about the Georgian President.

As I seem to be unable to locate a news link for the Georgian conversation, would you be so kind as to provide it?
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 09:38 pm
@Sturgis,
Oops My mistake. I was thinking about Georgia for some reason. You are correct of course.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 24 Sep, 2019 10:50 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
Oralloy, you don't seem to realize that somethings are worse than other things.

It is just as wrong for Democrats to break the law as it is for Republicans to break the law.

It is just as wrong for Democrats to abuse their power as it is for Republicans to abuse their power.

Now, it may be awhile before we see a Democratic president again, but we should lay the groundwork for impeaching that Democratic president right now so we can hit him or her with an endless witch hunt from their first day in office.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 12:51 am
Quite a big difference between the two, Ukraine very much part of Europe while Georgia is about as far East as Iran.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2014/09/Russiaempire1.jpg&w=1484
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 02:46 am
I can't help thinking that this is a trap. Trump loves this, and so do his supporters. Look how terribly I'm being treated," he'll whine. "You're just trying to overturn the '16 election!" they'll scream. The Republicans will never support vote to convict Trump; the Democrats will look divided, desperate, and in disarray. This is the last thing the country needs...and Trump knows this. That's why he's forced their hand.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 04:24 am
@hightor,
I don't think it's a trap. There two criteria to make impeachment successful,

1) A smoking gun.
2) A simple narrative that describes why what Trump did is unacceptable.

We need to know what is on the tape and in the report. But I think this time is different.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 04:26 am
@izzythepush,
Thank you Izzy. That was very helpful.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 04:59 am
@maxdancona,
Quote:
1) A smoking gun.


Will his base see it that way? We see, on this site, that his supporters have woven a complete counter-narrative which posits that all Trump's transgressions are actually part of a plot by Hillary, the MSM, and the "deep state" to destroy his presidency. They'll see it as the prophesy being fulfilled!

Quote:
2) A simple narrative that describes why what Trump did is unacceptable.


Again, his supporters have an alternative narrative, use alternative facts, and live in a nation ruled by alternative law.

Quote:

We need to know what is on the tape and in the report


It'll be interesting if it's not the slam dunk everyone seems to think it is. I can't imagine Trump releasing it if it doesn't back up his version of events.



maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 06:22 am
@hightor,
The fanatic base isn't in play. They need to turn a clear majority of Americans against Trump. They don't need to turn the core.

In the Nixon case, it all fell apart when Republican Senators indicated they could no longer defend the president. In the Clinton case Democratic senators held firm.

If there is a clear narrative wrongdoing and a smoking gun, there will be a great deal of public pressure put on Republican Senators to stop defending Trump. That is the whole game I think.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 06:31 am
@hightor,
You are wrong about releasing the tape.

He pretty much has to release the tape no matter what is on it. Once the press starts talking "cover up" Trump loses any control over the narrative.

Even of the tape is damning, they will release it, try to control the spin, and hope for the best.

We will see soon enough.
0 Replies
 
tsarstepan
 
  3  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 08:16 am
Trump Asked Ukrainian President For 'A Favor' On Biden; DOJ Says No Charges
Quote:
President Trump told Ukraine's president that "a lot of people want to find out" about former Vice President Joe Biden family's activities in Ukraine — and asked him to be in touch with his attorney, Rudy Giuliani, and Attorney General Bill Barr.

That's according to a briefing for correspondents about the contents of the phone call on Wednesday at the Justice Department.

The conversation raised concerns by a whistleblower that Trump may have broken the law by asking for foreign help against a potential election rival. But the Justice Department concluded that, based on the evidence that's available, prosecutors "did not and could not make out a criminal campaign finance violation."

0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 11:45 am
@hightor,
There was a Republican Congressman and diehard Trump loyalist being interviewed on the Today programme this morning. He said he couldn't think of one Republican member who would support impeachment regardless of what came out, and that in his opinion the one independent would probably shy away from it to.

If Congress won't play ball impeachment won't happen.

I don't know if it has done him any damage, his base are psychotic, when Trump joked about shooting someone he was making a serious point. His base will forgive anything.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 12:08 pm
@izzythepush,
I am pretty sure there will be Republican house members who vote for impeachment. We will see if I am right, maybe over the next few weeks.

The real battle is in the Senate. In the Nixon impeachment, when Republican senators told Nixon that they could no longer support him, he had no choice but to resign.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 12:56 pm
@maxdancona,
You don't mind me commenting on your thread then. It's not interference in your electoral process any more?

I've never been one to blow my own trumpet so I was shocked to discover I had had as much influence on your presidential election as the FSB and all associated agencies combined.

I'll try really hard not to swing any more elections. If you think I'm in danger of overthrowing any more democratically elected governments please let me know.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 01:05 pm
@maxdancona,
It turns out nothing has changed since Speaker Pelosi's announcement yesterday, No new select House Committee to consider the impeachment issue has been commissioned. Instead the Nadler & Schiff comedies in the House Judiciary & Intelligence committees will continue as ineffectively as they have done so far. More than anything else it appears that Speaker Pelosi may have lost control of the Democrat delegation in the House to the left wing zealots who are doing all they can to secure a Democrat defeat in the next election.

The stock market is up, as are Trump's favorability ratings.

Trump is certainly an egoist and a vulgarian of the first rank, however the policy initiatives he has made, both in internal and international matters have so far benefitted the country and the welfare of most Americans, and has done so to much greater effect than those of his predecessor. I believe that fact will not be lost on most voters. Indeed as a partly related fact, people are becoming increasingly aware of the fact that the "wealth gap" among Americans is for the most part far greater in Blue states governed by liberals than in states with conservative governance.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 01:17 pm
@georgeob1,
If i dont respond to this directly by October 25, please ping me so i can admit how wrong I was.

Ar this time I will point put that people who underestimate Nancy Pelosi generally regret it.
 

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