17
   

Impeachment: The Process Begins

 
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 01:24 pm
@maxdancona,
The general view I'm getting over here was that Pelosi was railroaded into doing it. It wasn't a considered judgement at all, but something that had to be acted upon in extremis.

It may make the Republicans look bad, but how many of them will seriously move against Trump? Mitt Romney is the only name that's been mentioned, some vague talk of 'others,' but nothing specific.

0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 02:29 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
We need to know what is on the tape and in the report.

Is there a tape? I admit that I'm not following this issue very closely, but I didn't notice anything about a tape on the evening news last night.

I haven't listened to any news since then however, so if there is any new information since last night's evening news, I am currently unaware of it.

I'm spending way too much time on a2k today. I need to head over to Azeroth.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 02:30 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
If i dont respond to this directly by October 25, please ping me so i can admit how wrong I was.

October 25 of what year?

What's so significant about that date? What do you expect to happen on or before that date?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 02:54 pm
@oralloy,
October 25th is one month from today. I am suggesting that looking back in a month, we will see quite a bit of progress made towards impeachment.

I predicted that the tape would be released... that came true in a matter of hours! There is another tape that Trump has already said can be released. The Congress is getting the whistleblower report (but it hasn't been made public).

I predict that within a month, you will see more Republican members of Congress decline to defend the president.

There will be hearings of course and battling narratives (that's an easy prediction to make.)

There will be votes on moving articles of inpeachment out od committee. I don't suspect these will happen by October, but when they do, I predict there will be at least two "yes" votes from Republicans.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 07:24 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

October 25th is one month from today. I am suggesting that looking back in a month, we will see quite a bit of progress made towards impeachment.


Just what will be the measure of that progress? More comical hearings by the House Judicial Committee under fatty Nadler? Articles of impeachment voted by the House of representatives? Conviction in the Senate.

Please be specific.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Sep, 2019 07:58 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Just what will be the measure of that progress?


In the first phase, the Democrats will be gathering evidence to make their case. Your impression of the hearings will have a lot to to with your political ideology. Trump's approval rating will be somewhat interesting during this time (but I don't propose this as a very good "measure of progress" either way).

The second phase is the key. Here the Democrats have to win over Republican votes. So I propose this as an objective measure of progress: the number of elected Republicans who are on record as supporting impeachment.

Right now the magic number is 1 (Romney). Ben Sasse is moving toward being number 2. When this number gets to 10-12 (and I think it will go higher than that), you might consider the possibility that I might be right.

Does this sound like a good objective measure to you?
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -3  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 01:48 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
I predicted that the tape would be released... that came true in a matter of hours! There is another tape that Trump has already said can be released.

I've not heard anything on the news about any tapes (whether released or not).
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  2  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 03:46 am
@maxdancona,
I wish politicians would stop trying to get re-elected and start trying to do the right thing, whatever they believe that is. Then maybe they would get re-elected for the right reasons. I think there is too much political calculation going on for anyone’s benefit.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 04:10 am
@rosborne979,
you can't do anything if you don't get elected. That's why there's such a focus on it.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 04:50 am
I have been thinking this for a while, but now it will be more relevant. Trump doesn't have any true friends. He is very good at riling up the base, but he doesn't treat the people around him very well.

My impression is that most of the people in Trump's circle are there because of the populist bubble. Trump's near complete hold over a portion of the electorate and the way he has taken over the Republican party means that he is now a center of power. But people are there for the power rather than any sense of loyalty to the man or to what he stands for.

People rallied around Bill Clinton. This included feminists... people who should have opposed him on principle. Bill Clinton inspired lasting loyalty even when it wasn't deserved. I don't think we will see this with Trump.

Once Trump starts slipping, I suspect he won't find too many people who are willing to stick out their necks for him. As this scandal unfolds, he will quickly run out of "favors" to hand out.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 06:06 am
@maxdancona,
I still question what Republicans have to gain by deserting Trump. As long as they preserve their preferred narrative, that the real example of corruption is Biden, they can keep selling that to the electorate and as long as none (maybe two or three) of them break ranks the impeachment process will just look like a partisan exercise by "sore losers". Trump's ham-fisted attempt at extortion will be characterized as a mere lapse in judgment by someone whose experience comes from the business world. At some point Obama's role in authorizing the Steele dossier will be brought up. Then we'll hear how he and Hillary sold all our uranium to Russia. And soon the Judiciary Committee is going to look like a bunch of amateurs desperately trying to shift people's attention away from the real scandal — how Hillary Clinton and George Soros set up the Trump Tower meeting and are funding nationwide antifa protests.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 06:26 am
@hightor,
I think you are confusing Trumpists with Republicans. Remember that a significant part of Republican party went with Trump reluctantly... they still don't really want to be the party of Trump.

There are true believers who will defend Trump no matter what. The key will be when Republicans start bucking.

tsarstepan
 
  2  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 06:44 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

I think you are confusing Trumpists with Republicans. Remember that a significant part of Republican party went with Trump reluctantly... they still don't really want to be the party of Trump.

That definitely is true BUT at this point, many alleged moderates are now so slavish to defending Trump's every wrong turn (of phrase and action)... that you can basically call them defacto Trumpists. All those Never Trump Republicans who claimed (preTrump nomination in 2016) have welded their souls to the Trump shiteshow... I doubt they'll try to save their souls from political damnation and finally turn on him if and when Trump has been revealed to have done/is doing some of the nastiest of crimes a US President has done in the history of this country. Republicans are far to deliriously happy over every Trumpian deregulation and not failing to mention the $billions of tax cuts that was passed (their biggest political wet dream despite the danger to the economy and the fiscal health of the country).

Quote:
There are true believers who will defend Trump no matter what. The key will be when Republicans start bucking.

I don't see this happening while Trump is president. Those Republicans who (in theory) may have bucked their party and Trump? They basically quit altogether from politics. And with the remaining moderates and so-called principled Republicans? At least in terms of number wise and those Republicans who have called themselves moderates? I don't see enough of them trying to save party or country from the likes of Trump. I REALLY hope I'm wrong here.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 06:55 am
@tsarstepan,
Quote:
I REALLY hope I'm wrong here.

I find myself thinking this all the time now.
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  2  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 07:24 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:
you can't do anything if you don't get elected. That's why there's such a focus on it.

I know. And I understand the reality of why it happens, but I'm not sure it's really the best way to get elected.

For example, the Democrats are currently involved in political election strategic maneuvering rather than simply doing the honorable thing (given the evidence) and proceeding with impeachment. But nobody can really predict the future, or how the electorate will react, so it's entirely possible that they are hampering their election chances rather than enhancing them, and there's no way to measure and compare results so it's all just guesswork.

The easiest thing to do is just to do what they believe is right, and let the cards fall where they may. They can't predict a failure of that path, and I'm not convinced they can even estimate it's potential failure. And I for one, am sick of all their double-think and wish someone would just stand up and do what thing think is right. And I'm a voter, and I'm watching, and I can't be completely alone in this view. At least I hope not.

georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 08:42 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

I think you are confusing Trumpists with Republicans. Remember that a significant part of Republican party went with Trump reluctantly... they still don't really want to be the party of Trump.

There are true believers who will defend Trump no matter what. The key will be when Republicans start bucking.


I think there's very little chance of formerly anti Trump Republicans migrating to any of the announced Democrat candidates, or to anyone who might emerge ( during Biden's ongoing twilight). This, I believe, is largely the result of the "oppose Trump at all costs on all issues" behavior of the current Democrat Congressional leadership, coupled with the evolving Democrat Party platform for 2020, led, as it is, by a very left wing DNC and the emerging new left in the Party itself.

Basically two significant things have changed since the last Republican Primary in 2015: firstly, Trump's policies have proved to markedly improved our overall economic performance: the stock market has boomed; work force participation and employment are much improved; wages are rising and consumer confidence is up. Secondly, the Democrat Party has moved very far to the left since the 2016 election. It is no longer the party of 2016, and increasingly the new elements of the Democrat platform are driving away even long term Democrat loyalists. The reactions of most labor Unions to Medicare for all is a telling example.

During the early 2016 Primary I was much put off by Trump's egoism, vulgarity and then novel use of public media and other direct public communications. Indeed I started out as a Romney supporter, but was finally frustrated with his feckless indecision and, at the same time, amazed by the effectiveness of Trump's new approaches. What has followed since then has amplified both my initial concerns, and my ongoing desire for effectiveness in implementing policy. Meanwhile the Democrat alternative has become far more unappealing to me. I believe this characterizes the experience of most of the "moderate Republicans" to whom you referred.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 09:06 am
@rosborne979,
I'm not really the person to be talking to about broken politics right now.

Trump may be lots of things but he's never made the Queen break the law.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 09:16 am
@izzythepush,
In other circumstances he (Trump) just might have done that. Politics is increasingly polarized in the US, the UK, Italy and many other western nations right now. In the UK the evolving Labor party platform just might be Johnson's greatest asset.

Interesting times.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 09:17 am
@georgeob1,
The Chinese curse is well remembered.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2019 10:23 am
@rosborne979,
rosborne979 wrote:
For example, the Democrats are currently involved in political election strategic maneuvering rather than simply doing the honorable thing (given the evidence) and proceeding with impeachment.

There is nothing honorable about witch-hunts against people who don't agree with the progressives' demented ideology.
 

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