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What chances does Trump have to win the 2020 election?

 
 
coa999
 
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 01:42 am
I'm not American, but are any of these Democrat nominees any good?
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Type: Question • Score: 15 • Views: 1,400 • Replies: 111

 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 02:16 am
coa999 wrote:
What chances does Trump have to win the 2020 election?

100%
coa999
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 02:30 am
@oralloy,
why?
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 04:24 am
@coa999,
Americans want our system reformed, but they don't like the delusional leftist nuttery that is being promoted by the candidates who are running for the Democratic nomination.

Trump is the man for the job.
0 Replies
 
revelette1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 08:30 am
@coa999,
This is just my opinion, but, I think there are too many in the field and the ones who stick out are too old (I know Trump is just as old but..) and seem like it. Also, we have just under half the country who either just go along with Trump because they are riding high in getting a conservative austere country like their dreams and/or people who are actually fooled by Trump lies and rhetoric. So, he has an excellent chance IMO.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 08:42 am
@coa999,
Trump is very unpopular outside of a fanatic base. No more than 35% of Americans like him, and an greater number hate him.

The question isn't whether Trump will win, it is whether the Democrats will lose. Most Americans didn't like either Trump or Clinton in 2016... Trump won because Clinton turned too many people off with her entitled attitude and her characterization of White working class voters as "deplorables".

The Democrats need to find a good candidate who can reach out to both White working class voters and the Democratic core base. Obama was able to do just that.

The extremists in the Democratic party (the people you see shouting slogans in pink hats) are going to make nominating a reasonable candidate difficult.

I would say the Democrats chances sit at 60%.

- Trump is unpopular and controversial (favors Democrats)
- The economy is great (favors Trump)

If the Democrats can push back against their Angy white women in pink hats wing, their chances will be much better
revelette1
 
  2  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 11:14 am
@maxdancona,
Have you looked at Trump's rising approval numbers lately? It is just a false belief that Trump's is so disliked. I think his approval numbers might be growing because of the investigations in congress, nonetheless, it was never as bad as people have always thought. I sure don't understand it, but then again, it made no sense he was ever elected in the first place. Moreover, it is a false assertion to say most didn't like Clinton in 2016, if they didn't like her, her popular vote wouldn't have been so high. She just lost the swing states which were all important.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 12:37 pm
@revelette1,
Quote:
Moreover, it is a false assertion to say most didn't like Clinton in 2016, if they didn't like her, her popular vote wouldn't have been so high.


What the heck are you talking about? Clinton's popular vote was 48 percent. She got less than 50% of the popular vote running against Donald Trump! The popular vote that Clinton got included people like me who despised her but voted for her anyway because of Trump.

The polling data says that just prior to the 2016 election Clinton's approval rating was about 40% (with an unfavorable rating of 57%).
neptuneblue
 
  3  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 12:41 pm
@maxdancona,
In any case, she's not running, so you can give it a rest.
maxdancona
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 12:45 pm
@neptuneblue,
neptuneblue wrote:

In any case, she's not running, so you can give it a rest.


It is relevant... because if the Democratic party doesn't learn its lesson from 2016, then they will lose again.

The danger is that the Angry White women in pink hats wing will make it impossible for the Democrats to reach out to the middle working class voters that Obama courted and Hillary insulted.

The Democrats need to build a coalition that includes middle-class White voters along with women and minorities. They need to appeal to the good in people and to show where the interests of men and women and working class White people and minorities are all aligned. Once the Democrats start pitting one group of Americans against another, they lose.

In order to do this, the Democrats need to keep the angry, entitled, self-righteous impulses of their base in check.
.
livinglava
 
  -2  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 12:55 pm
Until the stock market crashes due to the tariffs, Trump won't lose. When and if it does, that's still no guarantee that Trump will lose, because there will be a military aftermath to the crash and military situations tend to favor Republicans, and Trump would be seen as a strong commander-in-chief.

Only after a period of economic recession and war do Americans tend to vote for Democrats, i.e. because they are desperate enough for recovery to submit to socialist interventions. If they are somehow able to manage without it, they will do that.

The problem is Democrats and socialists of the world don't want Americans to get along fine without socialism and government control; i.e. they want them to be dependent in various ways so they can be controlled and exploited in various ways. So efforts to achieve various forms of independence from government and the corporate economy will probably be obstructed and thwarted in subtle ways to bring them into submission, at which point they will elect a Democrat president.

0 Replies
 
neptuneblue
 
  2  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 12:58 pm
@maxdancona,
Lol!

There are now 21 people in the ring to run again the sitting President. Possibly one of them may make you happy enough to stop bitching so much.
MyParentsAreProud
 
  -2  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 01:15 pm
@coa999,
I'm convinced that Trump will win again. Trump has done so many great things for America in the short time that he has been President. I can't Imagine America wanting to screw that up by putting a Democrat in the White House.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 01:18 pm
@neptuneblue,
There are several who could earn my support. Yes, I do believe that candidates should earn the support of voters. The Democratic party seems to have this backwards; they seem to think the voters owe them their vote.

So far Gillebrand has lost any chance my vote. Harris and Warren have my attention as people I could happily support (although I worry about electability).

The Democrats should stop insisting that people have to vote for them, and instead work on building a coalition of voters who want to vote for their candidate.
livinglava
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 01:23 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
Harris and Warren have my attention as people I could happily support (although I worry about electability).

What do you think about Warren's recent headline about people not needing cliche' financial advice but they just need more money?

Do you think voters will rally around the idea that getting more money is more important than wisdom and prudence in managing money?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 01:29 pm
@livinglava,
You are talking about some silly gotcha quote you read off of some political propaganda website.

Taken as a whole, I agree with most of Warren's economic policy.
livinglava
 
  -2  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 03:28 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

You are talking about some silly gotcha quote you read off of some political propaganda website.

Taken as a whole, I agree with most of Warren's economic policy.

What? Forgive student loans so people have more money for car payments and insurance?
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 03:57 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
Taken as a whole, I agree with most of Warren's economic policy.

That should put her over the top. Laughing
0 Replies
 
RABEL222
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 07:54 pm
Another sensationally intelligent post from j t!
0 Replies
 
revelette1
 
  3  
Reply Sat 11 May, 2019 07:55 pm
@neptuneblue,
Doubt it.
0 Replies
 
 

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