19
   

What chances does Trump have to win the 2020 election?

 
 
maporsche
 
  3  
Reply Thu 16 May, 2019 01:41 pm
@Baldimo,
Baldimo wrote:

"Scandals" that would ruin a GOP candidate are down played and softened by the left and MSM if it is a DNC candidate.


Scandals like cheating on your wife who just gave birth to your child with a porn star who you later paid hush money too right before an election causing your personal lawyer for over a decade to go to prison?

I'd wager that there are no scandals that Republicans won't forgive when it's their candidate anymore. Moral-authority is gone forever (if you think it ever existed).
Baldimo
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 16 May, 2019 01:49 pm
@maporsche,
It wasn't the first time Trump had been caught in a scandal such as that. The problem was the transparent way the DNC and MSM tried to use it against him, voters have been paying attention the last few elections, they know the game and they are adjusting their beliefs. Herman Cain ring a bell?
0 Replies
 
Baldimo
 
  0  
Reply Thu 16 May, 2019 01:56 pm
@maporsche,
Thank you for also proving my point. The MSM did everything they could to make sure this was a lead story for several months before and after the election, and the crooked lawyer who they all featured is now going to court for being a scam artist. The MSM pulled out all stops to report on Trumps negatives, and he was still elected. I think the MSM has a credibility problem, look how much BS they spread for the last 2 years on Trump being a Russian agent. Have you seen CNN and MSNBC's rating #'s since the report was released?

livinglava
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 16 May, 2019 03:09 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

I'd wager that there are no scandals that Republicans won't forgive when it's their candidate anymore. Moral-authority is gone forever (if you think it ever existed).

I think they could forgive abortion, even, if the person takes a pro-life stance. If you've never committed abortion, but you advocate for it, they're not going to vote for you just because you are morally pure of abortion on your personal record.
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Thu 16 May, 2019 03:43 pm
@maporsche,
Quote:
Moral-authority is gone forever

Talk to Ted Kennedy about that. Morals left politics awhile ago.
0 Replies
 
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Thu 16 May, 2019 03:45 pm
Quote:
Trump’s Rising Approval Won’t Surprise Those Who Paid Attention


Quote:
Earlier this month, Gallup recorded a 46 percent approval rating for the president, which at the time was a personal best. Just two weeks later, according to the latest Zogby Poll, 51 percent of Americans now approve of President Trump’s job performance — another all-time high for Trump, and a significant benchmark heading into the 2020 presidential election campaign.

The chances are getting better.
https://townhall.com/columnists/charliekirk/2019/05/16/trumps-rising-approval-wont-surprise-those-who-paid-attention-n2546450
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 02:47 am
@Baldimo,
Quote:
Thank you for also proving my point.

He didn't "prove your point". Trump paid off the woman; the fact that she had a sleazy lawyer doesn't absolve Trump of guilt.
Quote:
I think the MSM has a credibility problem, look how much BS they spread for the last 2 years on Trump being a Russian agent.

I never saw that charge being made by anyone with any credibility. There was speculation because of the unprecedented contact between Trump officials and Russian operatives. The speculation ranged from Trump being an agent to Trump being a harmless dupe — those sort of hypotheticals are normal when we only have pieces of a puzzle and are trying to see how they might fit together while we wait for the investigators to announce their conclusions.
Quote:
Have you seen CNN and MSNBC's rating #'s since the report was released?

Which is totally irrelevant to the quality of their reporting. Same thing happens on Fox news when negative news about Trump can't be ignored; viewers turn off the news. The way the Mueller Report was released (or not released) didn't give the media much to actually report — "A.G. Barr sez..." — so people turned off the news.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 04:32 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
If you've never committed abortion, but you advocate for it, they're not going to vote for you just because you are morally pure of abortion on your personal record.

Who "advocates for abortion"? The issue is a woman's right to an abortion.
livinglava
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 06:03 am
@hightor,
hightor wrote:

Quote:
If you've never committed abortion, but you advocate for it, they're not going to vote for you just because you are morally pure of abortion on your personal record.

Who "advocates for abortion"? The issue is a woman's right to an abortion.

You are talking semantics. The fact is that many people are upset about abortion as a form a killing. If liberals were arguing they are not for killing but only for a killer's right to kill, that would be unacceptable to people who believe in legislating killing with laws against murder in various degrees, manslaughter, etc.

If abortion becomes legislatable again, we will probably see different degrees of severity in the criminalization of abortion, depending on circumstances, the age and condition of the fetus, etc. I doubt that late-term abortions will carry the same penalty when there is proof that the baby wouldn't survive birth or long after anyway, or when the mother's life was in danger. It will be similar to instances in which people are killed due to circumstances that made it difficult for the killer to avoid killing.

The main purpose of legislating abortion, imo, is to stop its abuse as a form of birth control. Personally, I think full abstinence and celibacy are the best policy unless there is an intent to get pregnant, but probably most people will fall into a continuum at a less conservative point.

The main problem with half a century of Roe v. Wade is that abortion has gotten more prevalent instead of less, and sex has grown less and less sacred as having the natural function of reproduction. People should generally honor the connection between sex and the germination of human life, which is not only a religious belief but a biological reality.
0 Replies
 
neptuneblue
 
  4  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 06:21 am
@livinglava,
livinglava wrote:
I think they could forgive abortion,


I don't need your forgiveness, your sympathy, your moral outrage or even your approval.

My body, MY decision.
revelette1
 
  2  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 06:52 am
I hate that the whole abortion issue is being rehashed as though it has never been debated before. I find those who advocate the loudest the sins of abortion (or not depending on how one looks at it) never seem to bring the same passion to other forms of murder which happen with acceptance. Such as civilians being killed in wars of which we have sanctioned over the years longer than I have been alive (Vietnam) the atomic bombing of Japan long ago which was terrible,) and counting with the 16 years of Iraq and Afghanistan. The murder of those who are murdered by capitol punishment but were in actual fact innocent.

What also upsets me about those loudly go on and on about abortion also seem to be unaccepting of prevention in forms of paid birth control and help with those in poverty who can't afford to raise their babies with the necessities of life without government help.

Not the least of which most republican politicians in Washington DC are just that, politicians and not nearly as pro-life as they proclaim. Which is why they are worried about the extreme abortion bill passed in Alabama.

Senate Republicans running away from Alabama abortion law
maxdancona
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 07:08 am
@revelette1,
I think the abortion issue works in favor of the Democrats if they don't overplay it. Obama acknowledged that this is a difficult issue, he didn't attack people who disagreed with him, yet he worked for sound sane policy. That is what the Democrats should do (if they can control their own outraged base).

If the Democrats say that men who question abortion are evil rapists and women who question abortion are stupid and controlled... we are back to the bucket of deplorables. The most important question of this election is whether the Democrats can control their outraged, extreme base of White women in pink hats. The abortion issue is at the core of this.

Opinions about abortion are a spectrum, there is a lot of room between extreme feminist and fundamentalist pro-lifer. To win this election Democrats are going to need to reach out to people who are uncomfortable with abortion being legal. This doesn't mean changing their own position.

It does mean not insulting voters.

0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 07:28 am
@revelette1,
revelette1 wrote:
other forms of murder which happen with acceptance. Such as civilians being killed in wars of which we have sanctioned over the years longer than I have been alive (Vietnam) the atomic bombing of Japan long ago which was terrible,) and counting with the 16 years of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Collateral damage is unfortunate, but it is not murder in any way. We have to defend ourselves from the bad guys if we do not wish to be destroyed.

The A-bombs were dropped on military targets at the height of the most brutal war in human history.
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 07:45 am
Fivethirtyeight.com did an analysis on a state by state basis of how Trump polls compared to the lean of each state. After all, it doesn't matter if Trump is really, really unpopular in California since he's not going to win that state anyway and it really doesn't matter if he is 15 points below normal in Utah since he's going to win there regardless. Their takeaway paragraph:
Quote:
But what I’m most interested in is where potential 2020 swing states2 rank in the table above. Among those, Trump’s PARP is the lowest in New Hampshire. The state is slightly Republican-leaning (R+2), but Trump was way underwater there last month, with a net approval rating of -19 points. That could mean the Granite State, which voted narrowly for Hillary Clinton in 2016, may be slipping out of Trump’s reach for 2020. In Arizona, which has backed every Republican presidential candidate since 2000, Trump’s net approval rating is also much lower (-7) than you would expect given its R+9 partisan lean. That might explain why many election analysts think it will be in play in 2020. Trump also appears to be in worse position than a typical Republican president would be in Wisconsin, Texas and Iowa, all of which have PARP scores of -14.

On the other hand, the swing states where Trump has the highest PARP scores are New Mexico (-5), Virginia (-6), North Carolina (-7) and Florida (-7). Given the conventional wisdom that New Mexico and Virginia are now blue states, this may be a surprise — and it’s a sign that they may still be competitive (though they certainly tilt away from Trump to start). In North Carolina and Florida, meanwhile, the share of voters who approve of Trump is almost the same as the share who disapprove of him, so these states will probably be in play in 2020. But it also could be an auspicious sign for Trump that he isn’t more unpopular in these states, given his unpopularity nationwide.
0 Replies
 
revelette1
 
  2  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 07:47 am
@oralloy,
Quote:
At 8:15 a.m. on August 6, 1945, an atomic bomb—codenamed Little Boy—detonated 1,900 feet above Hiroshima, Japan. Though accurate estimates are impossible, it's believed the immediate blast killed about 70,000 people and injured another 70,000. The vast majority of casualties were civilians. After effects, such as complications from radiation exposure, have since taken the lives of unknown thousands more. This event marked the first time a nuclear weapon was used against people in earnest.


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/photography/proof/2017/08/fire-fury-hiroshima-nagasaki-anniversary-nuclear-atomic-bomb-pictures/

Quote:
Seventy years ago this Sunday, on August 9, 1945, an American B-29 dropped an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Nagasaki, obliterating much of it and killing 74,000 people, mostly civilians. It was only the second time in history an atomic bomb had been used as a weapon. (Read about Hiroshima, the first target of an atomic bomb, 50 years later.)


https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/08/150809-atomic-bomb-hiroshima-nagasaki-radiation-world-war-II-ngbooktalk/

More reading:

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/08/150806-hiroshima-nagasaki-archive-anniversary-wwII-atomic-bomb/

The above is why it is so scary for nuclear weapons to even exist let alone encouraged by folks such as you and Trump.
oralloy
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 07:54 am
@revelette1,
Hiroshima was a huge military center filled with tens of thousands of Japanese soldiers. It also held the military headquarters in charge of repelling our coming invasion of Kyushu.

Nagasaki was an industrial center with massive weapons factories. The specialized torpedoes that were designed to overcome Pearl Harbor's defenses were designed and built in Nagasaki.

You'd find the world a much scarier place if we did not have hundreds of ICBMs and SLBMs poised to incinerate our enemies.
0 Replies
 
Baldimo
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 08:23 am
@revelette1,
Is this a poor Japan post? Before you start feeling bad about what took place in Japan, take a look at what Japan was doing to all the other countries in their sphere of influence, including the massive amounts of war crimes and death they caused to the people of China. Japan wasn't some innocent country that was just trying to defend itself, they were an expansionist power who saw other Asian nations as inferior and did horrible things to them.
revelette1
 
  3  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 08:34 am
@Baldimo,
I don't doubt it. Nevertheless, dropping atomic bombs which had the effect of killing thousands of innocent civilians was a terrible, terrible event which took place. My point is that the same people who lightly dismiss those horrible events, will go and on about abortion. Death by killing, is death. The world would be better off with all nuclear states adhering to Nuclear weapons peace and getting rid of nuclear weapons.



I happen to believe abortion except in the case of medical reasons is a sin too. Just saying. However I accept others do not. I think it should be left at that.
georgeob1
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 08:53 am
@revelette1,
revelette1 wrote:

I don't doubt it. Nevertheless, dropping atomic bombs which had the effect of killing thousands of innocent civilians was a terrible, terrible event which took place. My point is that the same people who lightly dismiss those horrible events, will go and on about abortion. Death by killing, is death. The world would be better off with all nuclear states adhering to Nuclear weapons peace and getting rid of nuclear weapons.


Wars have been a feature of human behavior since the dawn of history. Mass killings have been part of that too. Nuclear weapons are merely one way of doing it: the fire bombings of Tokyo Hamburg and Dresden all killed more people than did nuclear weapon in Hiroshima or Nagasaki. The Japanese themselves killed more people in Nanking China with pistols rifles, artillery and forced starvation than were killed in either Hiroshima or Nagasaki.

In short getting rid of nuclear weapons (though now infeasible) wouldn't really change anything. It would however deprive many superficial thinkers of something to wring their hands about.

revelette1
 
  3  
Reply Fri 17 May, 2019 11:45 am
@georgeob1,
Likewise, women have always had abortions in one form or another and if they outlawed it completely, they will continue to do so; in hazardous ways. Which is tragic all the way around.
0 Replies
 
 

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