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How (and when) will the Government Shutdown end?

 
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 09:45 am
@engineer,
In 2013 the judgement was awarded after the fact. More importantly it was not contested by the government. From the analysis I read, legal action isn't very important as far as ending the shutdown.

It may lead to compensation after the shutdown is over, but a possible compensation in the future probably doesn't mean much to people not being paid now.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 09:47 am
@georgeob1,
Interesting take on things.

There are some at the lower end of the pay scales who are already looking at losing their homes. Others are at food banks.

Pay later is not good enough for them. They need paycheques now.

They can't quit - as the HR people are furloughed. This has come up in some RL discussions. Folks like FailuresArt are required to report to work, but can't work because the people they support/are supported by are furloughed. Can't do other work because of what they signed when they got the jobs and their security clearance levels. At their desks, unpaid, not allowed to work. Their partners in some cases, furloughed so at home and not being paid - unable to take on other work - and no promise of any payment post-furlough.

Some folks have started gofundme campaigns to help government employees with medical/food costs.

There's been a fair bit of coverage of some coast guard couples. They have jobs with the coast guard in part because there's not much else on offer in the coastal communities they live in. Not their first furlough so they know those are not safe/feathered nest jobs. Will the US be better with a much smaller coast guard? perhaps, but given how many drugs come in by way of boats (and apparently it's an increasing proportion), it seems an odd time to fold up those coast guard jobs.

Right now, about the only politicians I respect in this situation is this batch

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/heres-are-lawmakers-diverting-pay-solidarity-federal-employees

Quote:
Here are some of the members of the 116th Congress forgoing their pay as the shutdown drags on:

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut: Blumenthal pledged to donate the salary he earns during the shutdown to Homes For The Brave, which provides housing for the homeless with an emphasis on veterans. “Least I can do,” Blumenthal said.

Sen. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii: “More than 2,500 federal workers in Hawaii are either furloughed or working without pay during the holidays because Donald Trump shut down the government.” Hirono said in a statement. “As long as Donald Trump refuses to re-open the government, I will be donating my salary to Hawaii’s food banks — who serve nearly one in eight Hawaii residents in need.” Hirono committed her salary to three food banks in Oahu and Kauai, Maui and Hawaii island.

Sen. John Hoeven, R-North Dakota, said in a statement to Forum News Service that he plans on donating his salary to the North Dakota National Guard Foundation.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nevada: “Sadly, President Trump has brought our country into yet another crisis right before the holidays,” the senator said in a statement hours before the shutdown was triggered. “The President can end the Trump shutdown today. Until then, I cannot take a salary knowing that so many federal workers in Nevada and across the country will go without pay.” Cortez Masto said she would allocate her salary to Nevada charities, but did not name them.

Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nevada: Rosen pledged her salary to state organizations “aimed at helping survivors of sexual and domestic violence.” Rosen called attention to lapsed authorization for the Violence Against Women Act, which funds social service agencies including rape crisis centers, women’s shelters and legal-assistance programs.

Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minnesota: Smith has pledged to donate her salary to The Advocates for Human Rights, a spokesman said.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts: “Over 7,000 people in Massachusetts have been sent home or are working without pay during the #TrumpShutdown,” Warren wrote on Twitter this week. Warren said she would donate her salary to HIAS, a nonprofit that helps refugees.

Rep. Don Bacon, R- Nebraska: “Fairness and decency dictates that my pay also be withheld,” Bacon wrote in his letter to the House administrator.

Rep. Susan Brooks, R-Indiana: “I submitted a letter this morning requesting my pay be withheld for the duration of the shutdown,” Brooks tweeted the day after the shutdown began.

Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Florida: “I will not be accepting any pay for as long as the federal government remains shut down. This is yet another sad example of Washington’s dysfunction and inability to compromise,” Buchanan wrote in a tweet. A spokesman added that Buchanan will donate the sum of his deferred salary to charity.

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming: Cheney asked her salary be withheld in a letter to the House administrator. “I do not believe it is appropriate for Members of Congress to continue to be paid while we remain in a partial government shutdown,” the House Republican Conference chair wrote.

Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minnesota: "As I’ve previously committed to, I believe in No Government, No Pay — I would not be accepting pay during this or any future shutdown," Craig said in a tweet on Dec. 22. "This reckless shutdown is an attack on the hard work federal employees do everyday to provide critical services to millions of Americans."

Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-New York: Espaillat pledged to forgo his salary in solidarity with New York’s 14,000 federal employees, he said in a tweet.
Rep. Dwight Evans, D-Pennsylvania: Evans spoke with an air traffic control worker and a mother affected by the shutdown. “[Because] of workers like her, I’m asking the House to withhold my salary until federal workers receive their hard-earned [money]!” he tweeted Wednesday.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pennsylvania: Not only did Fitzpatrick commit to delaying his pay, he also promised to send his paycheck back to the U.S. Treasury. “I will be leading by example,” he said in a statement. “I am not only encouraging, but I am urging, all my colleagues, both Republican and Democrat, to do the same.” The congressman also reintroduced a constitutional amendment on Thursday aimed at preventing members of Congress from being paid if it fails to pass a budget. The effort would “dock pay for time without a budget as opposed to simply putting member salaries in escrow until end of term,” a spokesman said.

Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-Montana: “I strongly believe it is inappropriate for members of Congress to be paid while portions of the federal government remain shut down,” Gianforte wrote in a letter requesting that his pay be withheld.

Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Oklahoma: “I do not believe that Members of Congress should be paid during period of shutdown,” Hern wrote on Facebook. He is donating his salary to veterans’ groups.

Rep. French Hill, R-Arkansas: “I cannot in good conscience accept pay while federal employees are not receiving theirs,” Hill wrote on Facebook. Hill wrote a letter to the House administrator asking his pay be withheld.

Rep. George Holding, R-North Carolina: "I will not be accepting any pay for the duration of the government shutdown," Holding tweeted hours before the shutdown went into effect.

Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas: “There’s no good reason why Members of #Congress should continue to receive pay during a needless government #shutdown while other federal employees suffer,” Hurd wrote on Facebook. “That’s why I also plan to ask that my salary be withheld while we work to restore government funding.”

Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-North Carolina: Foxx submitted a letter on Dec. 22 asking that her pay be suspended until an appropriations agreement takes effect.

Rep. David Joyce, R-Ohio: “If Congress can’t keep the government fully operational, we shouldn’t get paid. It’s that simple,” Joyce said in a tweet.

Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nevada: “It is wrong that hundreds of thousands of Americans — including many in Nevada’s 3rd congressional district — don’t know when their next paycheck will come,” Lee said in a statement. “So, as this shutdown continues, I will not take a paycheck, and will continue to refuse my pay until the hardworking men and women across the country get theirs.”

Rep. Bob Latta, R-Ohio: "Since Congress already passed a number of appropriations bill this year, 75% of our government, including our military, will be unaffected by the shutdown," Latta wrote on Facebook. "That being said, Members of Congress shouldn’t be receiving their paycheck while others, including our border patrol agents, are not receiving theirs. I have asked the Chief Administrative Officer to withhold my pay during this partial shutdown."

Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Virginia:“Congress should not be rewarded for poor performance,” Luria said in a statement. Luria expressed concern in particular for the U.S. Coast Guard service members in her district, who could see a delay in the paycheck they are due on Jan. 15.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-New York: “If federal workers don’t get paid, neither should Congress,” Maloney wrote in a tweet Wednesday. Maloney is a cosponsor of the No Budget, No Pay Act, which withholds the salaries of members of Congress if it fails to pass a budget.

Rep. Mark Meadows, R-North Carolina: Many civilian workers expressed outrage when Meadows said stretches without pay are “actually part of what you do when you sign up for any public service position.” The next day the Freedom Caucus chair sent a letter to the House administrator declaring that “as long as our border security agents, air traffic controllers and TSA agents are not paid and their families not supported, I will not accept any salary.”

Rep. Paul Mitchell, R-Michigan: Mitchell posted his letter requesting the House administrator withhold his pay on Facebook as the shutdown began.
Rep. Tom O’Halleran, D-Arizona: “It is troubling that the White House and Congressional leaders are allowing partisan gridlock to get in the way of funding our government and preventing a shutdown yet again,” the Blue Dog Coalition chair said in a statement in which he promised to forgo his salary.

Rep. Pete Olson, R-Texas: “Federal employees should not be held hostage to dysfunction & inability to solve the problem,” Olson tweeted. The congressman supports a constitutional amendment to make furloughed Congressional salaries standard during shutdowns.

Rep. Chris Pappas, D-New Hampshire: Pappas asked the House administrator to withhold his pay. The freshman member said simply, “Congress doesn’t deserve to get paid.”

Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Illinois: In addition to pledging his salary to charity during the shutdown, Schneider cosponsored the Hold Congress Accountable Act. The bill would prevent members of Congress from accepting a paycheck during a government shutdown.

Rep. Max Rose, D-New York: “This shutdown is an insult to Americans who work their heart out every day because unlike Congress, they can’t afford to act like children,” Rose said in a statement announcing he would forgo his paycheck. “Other members will have to make their own decisions, but until the shutdown ends, hundreds of thousands of families don’t have that choice,” a spokesman added.

Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, D-Maryland: "I've asked [the government] to withhold my pay until this senseless #trumpshutdown ends," Ruppersberger tweeted. Maryland is home to about 23,000 civil servants who are furloughed or working without pay, Ruppersberger said in an op-ed. "This is about fundamental fairness, and so much more. It’s about finally showing our civil servants the respect they deserve," he wrote.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-New Jersey: “This morning I requested that my pay be withheld until the shutdown is over. 800,000 federal workers are not receiving their paychecks, including 1,000s in New Jersey,” Sherrill said in a tweet. “I came here to govern, not engage in partisan politics at the expense of hardworking Americans.”

Rep. Ross Spano, R-Florida: “I would support legislation forcing members of Congress to forfeit pay during any government shutdown, and I pledge not to take a paycheck until this impasse is resolved,” Spano said in a statement on Thursday.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-New York: Stefanik posted her letter to the House administrator on Twitter requesting her pay be withheld.

Rep. Van Taylor, R-Texas: "Members of Congress should not be paid when critical federal employees, including our border patrol agents, are denied their paychecks," Taylor tweeted Thursday.

Rep. Mark Walker, R-North Carolina: "As liberals refuse to secure our border and drag on this partial shutdown, they’re hurting the very people open border policies pressure the most: our Border Patrol agents," Walker said in a tweet. "As long as these brave men and women are forced to work without a paycheck, I will be refusing mine as well." The congressman included a picture of him signing a letter to the House administrator requesting a suspension in his pay.

Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Florida: “It is my goal to end the shutdown while providing adequate border security as possible. Until then, I do not believe it appropriate for Members of Congress to be paid while federal employees critical to our national security are not,” Waltz wrote in a letter to the chief administrative officer.

Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Virginia: Wexton, whose Northern Virginia district is home to a number of federal employees, said she asked the administrative office to hold her pay until the shutdown is resolved. “Because members of Congress continue to receive their pay during these shutdowns even though our constituents do not, please withhold my pay until an appropriations agreement has been reached and other federal employees begin receiving their pay,” she wrote.

Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Kentucky: Yarmuth has donated his entire salary to various charities in his district since first being elected to office in 2007— a sum surpassing $1 million, according to a spokesman. "Charity will never be able to replace the vital role of government, but these organizations each have a profound and positive impact on people's lives and greatly enrich our community," the congressman told WDRB last year. Yarmuth has a net worth of $6.1 million, making him the 57th richest member of the 115th Congress, according to Roll Call's Wealth of Congress report.

Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-New York: “It’s crazy to me that Members of Congress get paid while military service members do not,” Zeldin said in a statement. “I just told the House Chief Administrative Officer to withhold my pay until the government reopens.”
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:02 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
people are going to look for jobs that actually pay.


they can't quit as there is no one to accept their resignations/process them - and they can be sued for doing other work while still employed by the government (that is aside from clauses in some of their hiring agreements)

it's more than a bit of a mess

__

another awful twist - some states will not provide unemployment benefits to employees who are working but unpaid
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:06 am
@ehBeth,
https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2019/01/a-furloughed-federal-employees-guide-to-filing-for-unemployment-during-the-shutdown/

Quote:
Each state has different requirements that federal employees must meet first to unemployment eligibility.

Most states pay a maximum of 26 weeks of regular benefits, according to OPM, but the benefits themselves vary depending on location.

For employees who work in the District of Columbia, D.C. will pay up to 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Benefits will range from $50-to-$425 a week, according to this reference table of state unemployment insurance laws and information.

The situation is different in Virginia, which will pay unemployment benefits for 12-to-26 weeks. Benefits will range from $60-to-$378 a week.

In Maryland, benefits will be paid for up to 26 weeks and will range from $50-to-$430 a week.

Of course, more than 80 percent of the federal workforce works and lives outside of the Washington metropolitan area. California, which is home to the highest number of federal employees in the country, will pay benefits for 14-to-26 weeks. Weekly payments will range from $40-to-$450.


that kind of money doesn't cover much in the way of meds/food/housing costs

__

and

Quote:
These state insurance agencies will notify federal agencies when an employee has filed an unemployment claim. Federal agencies have up to 12 days to respond, according to OPM.


who is going to prepare those responses when no one's at those HR desks?

smells like more lawsuits - happy days for US employment/labour lawyers
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  0  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:10 am
@ehBeth,
In theory.

In practice, I doubt someone unpaid for a couple of months will get sued for trying to feed his/her family, and I doubt even more that a judge will condemn them.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:32 am
@Olivier5,
I am not nearly that optimistic. There are too many contracts/hiring agreements with clauses in them indicating where people can't work after leaving government - it is taken extremely seriously at some levels of security.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:37 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

Quote:
when funding is restored.

You can play this game for a couple of months but beyond that, people are going to look for jobs that actually pay.


Perhaps, but history suggests otherwise.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:39 am
@georgeob1,
What history are you referring to? Has there been a multi-month government shutdown before?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 10:43 am
The longest shutdown to date has been 3 weeks. At some point morale completely breaks down.

If people can't quit (and presumably this means they can't be fired, or not quitting is moot), I don't expect people to do their jobs very well.

At some point the lines at TSA get impossibly long. What is to stop them from napping at work, or just not showing up?
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 11:01 am
Quote:
While I appreciate the media reporting on how the shutdown hurts public employees, I would additionally like more time spent describing the actual fallout of us not being able to work; that our jobs are important.

I review export license applications for technology which is controlled for potential national security reasons. What that means is that I review a potential export of a commodity from the USA to another country. I verify that the item is what is says it is, can be used for what the export claims the end use is, and that the ultimate consignee is who they say they are—that it’s all legit. There’s more, and it’s primarily a learned knowledge of what types of items can and cannot be exported without a license to various countries and county groups.

While it’s not terrible exciting to describe the bureaucracy of export controls, it’s really important work. The USA has a lot of cutting edge technology that it sells to other countries. But we aren’t the only show in town.

In a given week, I might sign off on 30 - 40 license applications. Each one has a dollar value attached in the value of the export. In total, these application may represent anywhere up to $500M in revenue towards the US’s trade balance. Again, this is a single week in a single licensing officer’s queue.

A not insignificant portion of these applications are time sensitive. The buyers on the other end take note when the US is closed for business. Can’t buy this $6M machine from the USA? Okay, they’ll buy it from a competitor in Germany. That company that loses the sale probably will probably let go of workers. When we reopen, I’m sure many of the applications I have will have to be cancelled, and that will represent a lot of pain for working class people doing honest labor.

The work is important. It’s not just about us not being paid. Society takes a lot of work, so let us work.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 12:25 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
The longest shutdown to date has been 3 weeks.

Okay, thanks. Keeping it under a month makes it manageable i would think.

Beyond one month, there ought to be some serious mayhem along the lines pointed by eBeth (service degradation) and beyond two months, people will just look for other jobs — litigation threats be damned — or when they can they will turn to corruption ie sell government services to the highest bidder.

Quote:
At some point the lines at TSA get impossibly long.

Now that’s an idea: the zeal strike. If these TSA agents decide to do their unpaid work really really well and inspect each and every piece of luggage for 5 or 10 mn, all the planes are grounded.
0 Replies
 
coldjoint
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 12:39 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
At some point morale completely breaks down.

Unless Trump's morale breaks down the government will remain closed. I do not see him breaking anytime soon.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 12:40 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

What history are you referring to? Has there been a multi-month government shutdown before?


This one has lasted only a couple of weeks now. I doubt that it will last more than two months, or that the patterns for Federal Employees will change.
coldjoint
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 12:58 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
it is taken extremely seriously at some levels of security.

Those levels of security should not be affected. Remember they are non-essential personal that are sitting a home. Try again.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  0  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 12:58 pm
@georgeob1,
In short, history has nothing to suggest about a US govt shutdown that would last several months, except that it never happened so far.
0 Replies
 
coldjoint
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 01:08 pm
https://c4.legalinsurrection.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/SW-RedLin-600-LI.jpg
https://legalinsurrection.com/2019/01/branco-cartoon-line-in-the-sand/
tsarstepan
 
  3  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 01:08 pm
@coldjoint,
coldjoint wrote:

Quote:
At some point morale completely breaks down.

Unless Trump's morale breaks down the government will remain closed. I do not see him breaking anytime soon.

His administration already broke in terms of the proclaimed immediate troop withdrawal from Syria.
Contradicting Trump, Bolton says no withdrawal from Syria until ISIS destroyed, Kurds’ safety guaranteed

Trump Adviser Bolton Says U.S. Withdrawal From Syria Is Conditional On Defeat Of ISIS

And keeping on topic of the Trump/Trump admin losing it's will to keep up the gov. shutdown/stalemate?
Trump Literally Did Not Understand What a Shutdown Would Do

Trump Is Making an Ass of Himself Over the Shutdown

Sen. Mitch McConnell has a problem – And it’s Donald Trump
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 01:34 pm
@coldjoint,
coldjoint wrote:

Quote:
At some point morale completely breaks down.

Unless Trump's morale breaks down the government will remain closed. I do not see him breaking anytime soon.


My prediction is that the Republicans in the Senate call an end to this. We will see if I am correct in the next few weeks.

I don't believe this will last past the State of the Union address.
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 01:39 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

My prediction is that the Republicans in the Senate call an end to this. We will see if I am correct in the next few weeks.

Would there be enough votes in the Senate to override a hypothetical veto? Because I don't think they have either the willpower or the skill to maneuver Trump into signing any budget bill with a border wall compromise not to Trump's liking.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2019 01:44 pm
@tsarstepan,
I suspect it's like a hold your breath contest, and both players will avoid any hint of giving in until, at last they find a compromise.
0 Replies
 
 

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