@maxdancona,
Quote:It's official (almost).
And you appear, at the moment, to be right. However, before I throw in the towel completely, there is just one thing. I alluded before to the chance that Flake might pull a switch and vote NO, allowing Collins to vote yes and avoid the party's reprisals but still stopping Kavanaugh
if all Democrats vote NO.
West Virginia Democratic Senator Manchin has announced he's voting yes, but it has been widely reported that his greatest desire is not to be the deciding vote. Manchin's state voted for Trump in 2016 by over 40%. Manchin is running for the Senate again, he doesn't want to buck that. Normally the party wouldn't mind if Manchin went along with Kavanaugh to help to get himself elected this year, but if Manchin is the
deciding vote, the party might well hammer him.
Flake has said he would vote yes unless something new doesn't come out. There does not appear to be anything new coming out today.
If, however, Flake pulls a switch and votes NO anyway, then Manchin goes right back on the hot seat. Now Manchin's vote actually does decide. Under these circumstances only, Manchin very likely will vote yes. He won't say that's the reason he's switching, of course, he'll say something like Murkowski said, that Kavanaugh was not the right man for the court at this time etc etc.
Why would the pro-life Flake switch?
A. Flake is leaving the Senate because the partisan divide has become absolutely toxic, and while it was bad before, Trump has worsened it immeasurably. Flake comes from the same state as John McCain. Flake also has bipartisan tendencies, he was one of the people closest to Gabby Giffords after she got shot. The Senate used to be a friendly club. Now Trump has turned it into a kindergarten playground with the monitor assassinated.
B. Trump has made it clear he hates Flake, Trump made it clear it he hates Flake's friend John McCain, and this would be an immensely satisfying goodbye gift from Flake to Trump before Flake leaves.
So I will hold off on giving you your congratulations until after the final vote. So far everything you said has accurately worked out, but I'm waiting for the end. These days, you never know.