1
   

Bush's plan to turn America into an ownership society

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 06:30 am
Craven,

I agree with the majority of your assessment of the situation. I don't think I was being unfair - I faulted both parties for failing to explicitly address the problem. If the Democrats were to openly advocate the tax, "input" issues with specific proposals for the payroll tax, I would fault them less. Instead they hide behind their opposition to "tax cuts for the rich".

We would have the same Social Security collapse looming before us with or without the Bush tax cuts. Our current public Debt is not out of normal bounds, and continued economic growth could well wipe it out in relative terms as has happened before. Linear projections are always wrong. The real long term issue here is big government or small.

The output side adjustments being discussed - delayed retirement age with ownership options would (1) return the social insurance system to its original intended state; (2) restore its financial health; and (3) provide interesting new options, are, as a minimum, not a bad starting point for serious discussions about a specific solution.
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 06:57 am
george
you make it sound so easy, but let me ask you if these changes you propose will effect you any? Will your generation have to wait until they're 70 freaking years old to retire? I didn't think so! The changes you're talking about will have no impact on your life, so why should you be upset? Since you think it's so easy to say that the retirement age should be extended to 70, then what about those many many people out there who have done physical work all their lives and simply can't do it anymore? The work that they've done all their lives is all they know, so what are they suppose to do? Also, if the retirement age is extended then it makes retirement a thing of the past. I can't even imagine working until I'm 70 years old unless I'm just working a few hours a week just for something to do, if I'm physically able by then. How are people expected to enjoy their retired years if they don't have any or are too old to enjoy them.
Of course your generation doesn't have to worry about that, so no worries there, eh ;-)
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 07:34 am
The New Yorker wrote:
The ownership society promises freedom, but at the price of a huge shift in risk, away from government and society and onto individual citizens.

It strikes me that this is a 180 degree turnaround from the position Social Democrats held 30 years ago-- which was that capitalists should let workers co-own their companies so they don't feel alienated and do have a bigger stake in their company. And it is interesting that the same people now chastise George Bush for making essentially the same arguments.

plainoldme wrote:
How can a people without a habit of thrift save for their own retirement?

By developing a habit of thrift. It is human nature to respond to incentives, and privatizing Social Security creates a huge incentive to save.

plainoldme wrote:
Furthermore, one of the reasons why social security was created in the 1930s as part of the second new deal is that too few companies offered pension plans . . . and people in the early part of the 20th C had a tradition of thrift. Rolling Eyes

Then again, there are other people than employers to get a pension plan from, so I don't see how that justified the invention of Social Security.

D'artagnan wrote:
It occurs to me that there was a stock market Americans could invest in when Social Security was invented. Has the market become such a safe place to invest that we can change the rules for SS?

Actually, a dollar spent on stocks when Social Security was invented was a much better investment than a dollar spent on Social Security. This is even truer in my own country than it is in Germany, where the national government repeatedly plundered the people's retirement funds to finance some world wars it had started. I see no reason why a pyramid scheme like Social Security would be a safer place for my money than a broadly hedged stock index. It is certainly less safe than investing in a broadly hedged bond index.

georgeob1 wrote:
France and Germany face much more immediate and catasthrophic collapses of their social systems due to even older populations, a much lower birth rate, and higher benefits in their current systems. They will fall over the cliff before we will, but that is a poor consolation.

Don't forget America's traditional openness to immigration. After listening in to the American immigration debate for three years, I find the German immigration debate all the more frustrating.

All that said, I think the main reason to be afraid of George Bush's "ownership society" is that his administration has a history of botching up good principles with horrible execution. I believe America would be better off with Social Security competently privatized. I'm not so sure America would be better off with Social Security privatized with the practical incompetence I have come to expect from the Bush team.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:16 am
Montana,

It is understandable that your preference would be for the U.S. to raise taxes to maintain the current benefit levels and the age at which one becomes eligible. You live in Canada and presumably don't any longer pay any taxes, either to the social security program or to the government general fund. However, the majority of people who do live here, and who do pay taxes, may see the situation differently. They attach some value to the tax question and are more willing to deal with the cost-benefit tradeoffs.

I happen to believe the added years in the average person's expected life span alone is sufficient reason to adjust the benefit inception age, for this and several other reasons as well. You don't have to agree with me on that, but I do believe the argument I - and many others -have made in this area is likely to prevail among the majority of those involved.
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:20 am
Montana wrote:
george
you make it sound so easy, but let me ask you if these changes you propose will effect you any? Will your generation have to wait until they're 70 freaking years old to retire? I didn't think so! The changes you're talking about will have no impact on your life, so why should you be upset? Since you think it's so easy to say that the retirement age should be extended to 70, then what about those many many people out there who have done physical work all their lives and simply can't do it anymore? The work that they've done all their lives is all they know, so what are they suppose to do? Also, if the retirement age is extended then it makes retirement a thing of the past. I can't even imagine working until I'm 70 years old unless I'm just working a few hours a week just for something to do, if I'm physically able by then. How are people expected to enjoy their retired years if they don't have any or are too old to enjoy them.
Of course your generation doesn't have to worry about that, so no worries there, eh ;-)


I did not realize that the purpose of Social Security taxes is so that the AARP crowd can lay back and enjoy retirement.

Social Security is meant to be a safety net, not a free ride on the shoulders of (young) workers.
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 08:48 am
george
The fact that I now live in Canada is besides the point. I'm still effected by what is being proposed and where I reside today doesn't change the fact that I paid my taxes in the US for 24 years. If I was still in the US I would feel exactly the same as I do now.

MerlinsGodson
I won't even respond to that nonsense!
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 09:38 am
But if you lived in the U.S. you would still be paying both payroll and general income taxes - you might then see things differently.

The Social Security system is not a funded pension scheme. Beneficiaries do not own or have a right to any specific level of benefits. It is, instead a financial transfer scheme in which the government takes money from working people in the form of payroll taxes, and gives it to others who are retired. The terms of pay in and pay out can be changed at any time. There are no vested rights in anything. What Bush is proposing would give participants a degree of vested ownership, but the present system does not provide for it. You may believe you have a vested right to the current level of benefits, but it is a legal fact that you don't.

The fact is that many taxpayers here do see things differently. It remains to be seen what will come out of the debate. Something must be done within the decade and that some significant change in the benefit structure will eventually occur is generally considered inevitable.

You could always move back to the States, get a job, pay taxes, and vote.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 09:56 am
georgeob1 wrote:
The Social Security system is not a funded pension scheme. Beneficiaries do not own or have a right to any specific level of benefits. It is, instead a financial transfer scheme in which the government takes money from working people in the form of payroll taxes, and gives it to others who are retired. The terms of pay in and pay out can be changed at any time.

And just to support George's point, compare that to the definition of a pyramid scheme, as given by wordreference.com:

Quote:
pyramid_scheme

A fraudulent scheme in which people are recruited to make payments to the person who recruited them while expecting to receive payments from the persons they recruit; when the number of new recruits fails to sustain the hierarchical payment structure the scheme collapses with most of the participants losing the money they put in.

Granted, one could argue with the word "fraudulent". After all, FDR's strong side was the theatrical and rhetorical side of politics, not its systematic side. He may honestly have believed he was giving the nation a Good Thing (TM). But can you see how precisely this definition of "pyramid scheme" fits not only the nature but even the history of Social Security?
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 01:38 pm
Delayed retirement? Try to get a job when you are more than 50 . . . especially one that pays a living wage.
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 02:26 pm
Montana wrote:
How are people expected to enjoy their retired years if they don't have any or are too old to enjoy them.


MerlinsGodson wrote:
I did not realize that the purpose of Social Security taxes is so that the AARP crowd can lay back and enjoy retirement.

Social Security is meant to be a safety net, not a free ride on the shoulders of (young) workers.


Montana wrote:
MerlinsGodson
I won't even respond to that nonsense!


Montana,

What of my response is nonsense?
a) My interpretation that you advocated Social Security as a way for Americans to "enjoy their reitred years."
b) Social Security is meant to be a safety net.
c) Social Security depends on the payroll contributions of American workers?
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 07:43 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
But if you lived in the U.S. you would still be paying both payroll and general income taxes - you might then see things differently.

The Social Security system is not a funded pension scheme. Beneficiaries do not own or have a right to any specific level of benefits. It is, instead a financial transfer scheme in which the government takes money from working people in the form of payroll taxes, and gives it to others who are retired. The terms of pay in and pay out can be changed at any time. There are no vested rights in anything. What Bush is proposing would give participants a degree of vested ownership, but the present system does not provide for it. You may believe you have a vested right to the current level of benefits, but it is a legal fact that you don't.

The fact is that many taxpayers here do see things differently. It remains to be seen what will come out of the debate. Something must be done within the decade and that some significant change in the benefit structure will eventually occur is generally considered inevitable.

You could always move back to the States, get a job, pay taxes, and vote.


Ok, well all this tells me is that the government have covered their asses legally, but it doesn't change the fact that past generations recieved social security benefits when they turned 65 (60 if widowed), but this generation most likely will have to work for the rest of their living days just to survive because we had absolutely no warnings from the government until now that the funds are almost gone and we don't have time to do anything about it. Surely you must see how devistating this is to the generation who takes the hit. So many of the elderly today barely get enough to survive as it is. How do you think it's going to effect the people who don't have time to make a plan for themselves? This may not effect people who are well to do, but it sure as hell is going to cripple the every day hard working Joe who just makes enough money every week to pay the bills and put food on the table for his family. Maybe todays Business Executives can't see how devistating this will be to the regular factory workers and such, but I see it very clearly and it scares the hell out of me.

You tell me that I could move back to the states, get a job, pay taxes and vote. Thanks, but no thanks george, lol. Why on earth would I want to go back there and cut my own throat when I can stay here and retire when I'm 65? I'm 41 years old and I don't have the time to start all over again and cover my butt so I can retire at a reasonable age. If I were to go back to the states, I would never be able to retire until I'm on my death bed. Atleast here, I can retire at 65 just like it's been since before I was born and I have far more options at my reach where I still have time to retire comfortably, so you must surely understand why even the thought of moving back to the states makes my skin crawl.
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 07:57 pm
MerlinsGodson wrote:
Montana wrote:
How are people expected to enjoy their retired years if they don't have any or are too old to enjoy them.


MerlinsGodson wrote:
I did not realize that the purpose of Social Security taxes is so that the AARP crowd can lay back and enjoy retirement.

Social Security is meant to be a safety net, not a free ride on the shoulders of (young) workers.


Montana wrote:
MerlinsGodson
I won't even respond to that nonsense!


Montana,

What of my response is nonsense?
a) My interpretation that you advocated Social Security as a way for Americans to "enjoy their reitred years."
b) Social Security is meant to be a safety net.
c) Social Security depends on the payroll contributions of American workers?


Oh sigh. If you read all my responses here, you obviously know where I'm coming from in this issue and that I really don't want to repeat myself, but I'll try to explain this without repeating anything I've already said.

You said "Social Security is meant to be a safety net, not a free ride on the shoulders of young workers".

Now the reason why I think that statement wasn't worth responding to, is because you fail to recognize the burden that has been on all our shoulders. You talk as if I want to go and rip off the young people of today, when my generation spent our entire lives supporting the people of yesterday. What you're proposing will cripple an entire generation of retirees, so that's why I think your reasoning is absurd!
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Nov, 2004 11:40 pm
I have no retirement but my wee social security. True, I was married a bunch of time, but I paid his way for years, and he mine for fewer but when money was more recent.
So we just split the difference, which wasn't all that much.
No alimony coming my way, and though that is harsh, it is also just.

He has since married someone with some money and I live in dwindleville. I am not a sluggo, I have worked since I turned sixteen, including through my university years.

Apparently my failing is that I didn't marry well, or that I didin't invest early in some assured way.

In any case, I have no foreseeable monies whirling into my future after a lot of years of work. How could this happen?

I worked at a university - no social security from them, they didn't do that, but I had $1500. retirement at the end, put it into the house downpayment.
The lack of social security there turned out not to matter for me, in that I had more than enough quarters re my life.

Worked for a clinical lab, again, got about $1400, when I left, same house down payment.

Worked for a landscape architect as part of my way to a license, never as an official employee, as an individual contractor, which was true, I did other jobs, none of all of it amounting to much, including working for the firm.

And so on, I was never on anyone's payroll after that.
None of the people at the low end of the arch professions can afford to have employees, or only some. And possible employees need work in the field.

I have been self employed all this time and always precariously. I'd say, easily, that it isn't all my fault, I had a begining job in a to-be-and-now-is national firm and they liked me, just before they canned 80% of the office, in '82, I think. 'Twas a purge in recession times, routine in architecture, and I was then only a helper type.

So, what is my point? I have worked hard and long and have little financial wherewithal - yes a house, but with a mortgage, and advancing age and med conditions.

I really recoil at intimations of various negative points of view on anyone having trouble making it, perhaps from moral grounds.

I've worked now, full time, or more, for 47 years.

Trust me, I look with recalcitrant delight on the re-envisioning of social security, and seeing the monies put forth to other uses.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 12:36 am
georgeob1 wrote:
The Social Security system is not a funded pension scheme. Beneficiaries do not own or have a right to any specific level of benefits. It is, instead a financial transfer scheme in which the government takes money from working people in the form of payroll taxes, and gives it to others who are retired.


Well, this is the idea since such a system was introduced:

we (=those, who pay taxes and are employed) pay for those of us, who are retired.

And that's what people seem to have forgotten since this system was introduced. (Btw: Bismarck was motivated to introduce social insurance in Germany both in order to promote the well-being of workers in order to keep the German economy operating at maximum efficiency, and, even more, to stave-off calls for more radical socialist alternatives.)
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 03:48 am
I believe the Social Insurance schemes in use in the U.S. and most developed countries have been, all things considered, a good thing - so far. As long as there was a built in balance between the input of funds from a tolerable level of taxes imposed on an ever growing workforce, and the output to retirees who, as a class, could expect their benefits to be paid by an always larger number of workers, the situation operated well.

The problem is that this situation is not permanently sustainable. Commercial financial schemes structured in this way are illegal - one could be sent to prison for operating one, because it is doomed by the inexorable arithmetic to ultimately fail, leaving both contributors and beneficiaries stranded after the collapse.

About a page back Thomas offered the dictionary definition of a Pyramid scheme, noting that, both in its structure and the manner in which the Social Security Program was presented to the American public by FDR during the Depression, it was in its essence such a pyramid scheme.

Thomas wrote:


pyramid_scheme

" A fraudulent scheme in which people are recruited to make payments to the person who recruited them while expecting to receive payments from the persons they recruit; when the number of new recruits fails to sustain the hierarchical payment structure the scheme collapses with most of the participants losing the money they put in. "

Granted, one could argue with the word "fraudulent". After all, FDR's strong side was the theatrical and rhetorical side of politics, not its systematic side. He may honestly have believed he was giving the nation a Good Thing (TM). But can you see how precisely this definition of "pyramid scheme" fits not only the nature but even the history of Social Security?


The situation today is that the inevitable collapse is now before us. Montana up in Canada, and all of us need and feel entitled to our promised benefits. However the supply of workers willing to be taxed at levels sufficient to pay these benefits for our retirements, now extended for more than a decade is, no longer equal to the demand.

The fact is that most developed countries face this problem - only the details and the time remaining before the collapse vary - and not by very much at that. Difficult as this may be for us to accept, consider how much worse was the fate of the generation of people in the former Soviet Empire, who found their promised social welfare protections almost worthless at the collapse of the hateful and hopelessly dysfunctional political and centrally planned economic system, which had taken their freedom in exchange for promises of security and equality which it could not fulfill.

Socialism itself is a giant pyramid scheme. Worse, by its nature and the nature of human beings, it destroys the incentives for the production of the wealth is so blithely promises to redistribute. It can appear to work for a period - while it consumes what has been built up by generations past, but an eventual collapse is generally inevitable. Attempts to extend its life generally involve even greater authoritarianism and loss of freedom, but even they fail. The facts of life and human nature are such that we must produce what we consume and either save for our retirements or continue to work.

Germany, after the reunification, faced a unique challenge in absorbing the formerly socialist East (GDR) into a vibrant capitalist society and economy in the West (FRG). There were enormous transfers of weath from the West to the East, but the largely successful adjustment was still difficult and took a good deal of time. This was an experience almost unique in the world, and I would be very interested to read the impressions of it from any of our German friends here -- Walter and Thomas, that's you.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 04:47 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
we (=those, who pay taxes and are employed) pay for those of us, who are retired.

And that's what people seem to have forgotten since this system was introduced.

I haven't forgotten it. I just think it's a very badly designed system, and I want it replaced by something that is not designed as a pyramid scheme.
0 Replies
 
Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 07:05 am
I agree with Thomas that it is a poorly designed system. and in many cases, quite unfair. When I went out on my first job, in 1959, the money that we paid into Social Security was miniscule as a percentage of salary.

I married, raised a child, and then returned to the work force in the late 1970's, I was astounded at how much money was taken out of my pay for SS.

So what we have here, are younger people, who are paying into SS at a high rate, paying for retirees who paid relatively little into it. To give an example, my mom, who is 95, has been collecting social security for 30 years. Without doing the math, I could reasonably conclude that she has received far more in benefits than she ever put in, even if one factored in interest.

OK, so she is an anomaly, in terms of her longevity. But now plenty of people live into their middle to late eighties, and opposed to people who mostly died in their seventies, when I was a kid.

So now you have a situation where a smaller number of young people will be paying for a much larger number of baby boomers, who will live longer than their parents and grandparents. If that is not a recipe for disaster, I don't know what is. The system need to be fixed, and soon!
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 07:26 am
Phoenix32890 wrote:
So now you have a situation where a smaller number of young people will be paying for a much larger number of baby boomers, who will live longer than their parents and grandparents. If that is not a recipe for disaster, I don't know what is. The system need to be fixed, and soon!

I agree, of course. And, just to get back to a point Walter made, this wasn't the idea since such a system was introduced. Bismarck's original system was fully funded. It paid you out after you had paid into it. In Germany, the switch from the funded to the unfunded system didn't happen until 1957. It won chancellor Konrad Adenauer the 1957 election, but it was nevertheless a fraud. (It really was a fraud in Adenauer's case because he, unlike Roosevelt, had an extremely competent minister of economics, Rudolf Erhard. Erhard did warn Adenauer about the unsoundness of the "pay as you go" model of old age insurance, and Adenauer implemented it anyway, knowing what he was doing.)
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 12:00 pm
Phoenix32890 wrote:
I agree with Thomas that it is a poorly designed system. and in many cases, quite unfair.


Well, that's what you think.

It was - at least in my opinion - a really excellent system when it was designed now 120 years ago.
And when I consider that the USA waited more than 50 years, until they adopted it (at least, in the significant deatils) ...
----------

I didn't spent a second on the thought, Thomas, that you couls forget this.

What I meant is that people are complaining, they don't get what they spent. This happened in such a system - but only years ago (George pointed out the reasons already).
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Nov, 2004 02:56 pm
Are we all forgetting that the main reason this is happening so suddenly is because of the massive amounts of money that the government has been taking from the pot?
Also, the ones who say that people are living longer may be right, but what about the people who are dying younger and never see a dime in SS after working all their lives. There is more cancer killing people now than there ever was and how about the lives that Aids takes avery single year? Even if people living longer were the problem here, then there is no way in hell this would have been a sudden issue. People should have been warned and given a chance to cover their backs and the reason why people were not warned is because the government didn't want us knowing that they drained the pot. Go figure! I remember the SS issue coming up often over my lifetime and we knew that something needed to be done because eventually, it was going to be a problem, but not once in all these years were we told that it was an immediate problem, so they had plenty of time to slowly change things so that they wouldn't have to devistate an entire generation. we were not told because the government doesn't want us to know that they are a bunch of lying thieves This is a disaster as it stands and I'm not looking forward to seeing what's ahead.
0 Replies
 
 

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