7
   

Texas the new swing state

 
 
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 10:33 am
George Will has an alarmist column this morning in the WaPo in which he fears that Texas will soon become "another brick in the Democrat's Blue Wall." He cites the fact that in 2000 Texas Republicans averaged 60 percent of the vote in state level elections, but that by 2008 the average fell to less than 53 percent. He points out that Republicans are doing worst in the big cities citing Dallas as "soldly Democratic" (they've elected a Democratic mayor).

Will goes on to focus on minorities, saying that Houston "is 69 percent minority, with a majority of them identifying as Democrats," the San Antonio metropolitan areas is about three-quarters minority, which while not explicit, seems to be implying that their majority also identify as Democrats. He reaches further, citing Asian Americans as being Texas' fastest growing minority by percentage, pointing out that they are projected to be more than eight percent of the population by 2040. He doesn't mention their general party affiliation, however.

In regard to Hispanics he points out that while they made up about 25 percent of Texas' registered voters in 2014, only 19 percent voted in the gubernatorial election. They now make up around 29 percent of registered voters in Texas and Will goes on to speculate about the ramifications of a Republican national ticket giving Hispanic voters the motivation (read: Trump) to make up about 25 percent of the turnout. Will tones it down at the end of his column--no blue brick references--and goes on to state that the trends may see Texas become a purple state.

Alas, if only...
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Type: Discussion • Score: 7 • Views: 6,094 • Replies: 66

 
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 10:35 am
They have some serious gerrymandering to overcome, plus the state's Democratic party is a shambles. Plus the id law has been dealt a blow but is not gone.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 10:42 am
@InfraBlue,
interesting stuff

so Texas is becoming a state where I'd vote one of the major parties in a national election

not something I'd expected to consider
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 10:54 am
@edgarblythe,
Ill bet your maps of congressional districts have taken on some interesting shapes. In the Pennsylvania seventh Congressional district, gerrymandering has created a map shaped like Bullwinkle shaking hqnds with Goofy. All because the GOP wants to "maintain voter equality" riiiight.

The Pa voter id was struck down in the uprememcourt but, like Texas, it gets revived just before a nationl election to hide some evil plot to keep minorities from attqining more thn their rightful 3/5 status

BEHOLD, THE SEVENTH DISTRICT:


      http://media.philly.com/images/Pa-7th-congressional-district-Artboard_1.png
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 11:36 am
@InfraBlue,
This may be for the future, but it sure won't be the case in the 2016 election.

Not even the most optimistic Democrat strategists think HRC can win Texas.

However, it does show how the Democrat's "open borders" strategy is working.

You need to ask yourself, Why do immigrants in Texas vote Democrat?

Because they are philosophically liberal?

No.

Because as immigrants they are most likely to benefit from generous social programs?

Yes

Because as Mexican immigrants they are more inclined towards policies that treat illegal alien relatives rather softly?

Yes.

In the short term (and this is a relative term) Mexican immigrants in Texas are likely to vote for Democrats (People almost always vote for their self-interest which is a good thing), but contrary to what many bigots might think, Mexicans are a hardworking people who value family, religion and the rule of law (unless it has to do with immigration). In time, as they prosper, their interests will be more aligned with the conservative policies that were a part of their ideology when they came here.

So in the (long) short term, Mexican immigrants may indeed change Texas to purple or blue, but eventually they will revert back to red.

The blue supremacy is highly dependent upon a permanent underclass looking for the State to provide them with an easy if not prosperous life. For all sorts of reasons, (not all or even most that they are responsible for) the African-American community has had a terrible problem with breaking free from this dependency status. Asian-Americans haven't and I don't think Mexican-Americans will either.

revelette2
 
  7  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 12:23 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
However, it does show how the Democrat's "open borders" strategy is

You need to ask yourself, Why do immigrants in Texas vote Democrat?

Because they are philosophically liberal?

No.

Because as immigrants they are most likely to benefit from generous social programs?



No, it is because republicans are anti immigrants and they are in your face about it. Duh.

Low-income Latino Families Are More Financially Stable and Less Likely to Participate in Government Assistance Programs



edgarblythe
 
  4  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 12:25 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Your reasoning is twisted, but you are right that Texas will be red for at least a couple more elections. We barely even have a Democratic party, here, anymore.
roger
 
  2  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 12:57 pm
@InfraBlue,
I appreciate the real commentary - as opposed to just pasting the column.
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  6  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 01:47 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
George Will is hardly a Democrat strategist.

Immigrants do not constitute all or even most of the minorities that George Will is referring to, unless you're going back generations to make your bigoted point. Also, Texas has some of the most niggard social programs in the country, enacted by like minded bigots. Your claims of generosity are rather generous themselves.

Either you're using the word "Mexican" interchangeably with "illegal alien" the way Trump does, or more generally, conflating the word "Mexican" with "alien."
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  4  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 02:52 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Mexican immigrants in Texas


This phrase is a little strange (given the history of Texas).

What we would call White American immigrants first immigrated to Texas in the 1830's. The ancestors of some of what Finn refers to as "Mexican Immigrants" beat the White Americans there by a couple of thousand years.


Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 03:53 pm
@revelette2,
Is that your opinion or a definitive statement?
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 03:55 pm
@edgarblythe,
How is it twisted?

All fine and dandy to make such a claim but let's see something that supports it.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 04:07 pm
@maxdancona,
Oh please.

Are you really trying to promote the nonsense that over a hundred years ago Mexico owned Texas and so now in 2016 all Mexicans have a right to move to Texas?

And why do the ancestors of the indigenous people of that region all speak Spanish? A referendum?

Do you really believe that Mexicans are all an indigenous group?

Do you think Spaniards aren't "white?"

What utter crap.
maxdancona
 
  5  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 04:21 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
No Finn.

I am pointing out the ridiculousness of you referring to American citizens of Mexican descent as "Mexican Immigrants". You are clearly talking about American citizens since you are talking about their voting patterns. The Spanish arrived in Texas in 1520, long before the Slave owners immigrated to Texas in the 1830s.

Many Texans of Mexican descent would rightly tell you that you are full of crap.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 04:29 pm
@maxdancona,
So if you came to this country as a Serbian Immigrant you shouldn't be referred to as such no matter how much you want to be?
maxdancona
 
  6  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 04:35 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Yes Finn. Now you have it. Texas was part of Mexico when the White Protestant immigrants came there in the 1830s. So, the White Protestants who crossed the border into Texas should be referred to as immigrants.

The people who were living there at the time.... not so much.


0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  3  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 07:05 pm
Texas, Arizona, and Georgia are currently still solid red states. I can see these three red states becoming purple in the not too distant future due to the growing changes in demographics. Let's not forget that Virginia and North Carolina both were solid red states for decades. Virginia and North Carolina just started trending purple after Obama had won both of those states in his first term. Also in Obama's second term he again won Virginia while losing North Carolina in a super close contest.
edgarblythe
 
  5  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 07:08 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
You are spouting teabagger ****. Teabaggers have been cussed and discussed on a2k for years. What could I say that you haven't been told fifty plus times?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2016 08:05 pm
@Real Music,
I am predicting that Georgia is going blue this election. You heard it from me first.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 22 Jul, 2016 09:36 am
Hardworking people with great family values (as most Mexicans are) are not immune to the allure of social program "handouts."

These people work very hard but are not making a lot of money so I don't blame them for taking what is offered. If there is any blame to be assessed it is against Democrats who make the offers so as to maintain a permanent underclass of reliable Dem voters.

I have every faith that Mexican Immigrants (my definition not yours) will thrive in this state and that eventually they will find their self-interests aligned with conservative principles just as their basic values do right now.

 

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