Here are the key points for me:
Favoring the Democrats
- I think the Dems have a electoral college advantage. There are 251 votes pretty much in the Dem column. These are basically the states that Kerry won in 2004. The Republicans can count of 178, basically what McCain won in 2008. The Republicans pretty much have to win all the swing states except one to pull out a win and that one can't be Ohio or Florida.
- The Republicans aren't trying to win the middle so it makes it hard to get those swing states.
- Demographics are working for the Democrats and the Republicans aren't yet trying to play for minorities or young voters. Trump is playing to his nationalist wing and dragging the rest of the candidates with him.
- Both Sanders and Clinton are solid debaters. Rubio and Cruz may be their match but the rest of the Republicans don't have a chance IMO.
Favoring the Republicans
- The Democratic candidates are old. Neither Clinton or Sanders projects the energy and vitality of Cruz or Rubio.
- Both Cruz and Rubio can distance themselves from the Republican party on immigration if they get the nod and I think it is going to be one of those two.
- The US typically changes Presidential parties frequently. GW Bush was the first time the incumbent party won an open election. Clinton was about as popular as a President gets these days and he couldn't get Gore in.
- Both Clinton and Sanders are open to vile, political attacks. The anti-Clinton machine is well oiled and has been in operation for a while. Painting Sanders with the "socialist" card will be very straightforward since he calls himself that.
I think it is going to be Clinton vs Rubio with Clinton pulling out an electoral squeaker.