49
   

Who do you think will be the next president of the United States?

 
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Mar, 2016 06:57 pm
@Setanta,
Because I want him to win. You're more conservative than I am.
ossobuco
 
  2  
Reply Tue 22 Mar, 2016 07:15 pm
@maporsche,
Yes, that is the going way, but I have felt slammed by many generalizing, me with a gravel mask. Not always, I can generally deal with it.

Things are more complicated, and the complications are often dismissed. I get the routine way, but in some situations I think group slams are bad news, from varied sides.



0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  7  
Reply Tue 22 Mar, 2016 07:39 pm
@Lash,
Polls showed 80% of Nader's supporters had Gore as a second choice. Nader said that the country could survive a term of GW Bush if it woke up and caused progressives to get together. So the Naderites voted for their man, 97,000 of them in Florida, and Bush won Florida and the general election by less than 550 votes.

If Sanders supporters stay home because they figure that a GOP victory is something that they can survive as long as the establishment Democrats are replaced by more liberal elements, they will be acting exactly like the Nader supporters who gave the election to GW Bush. And gave the country The Lost Decade.
cicerone imposter
 
  3  
Reply Tue 22 Mar, 2016 07:41 pm
@Blickers,
Actually, it's about surviving Trump.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  5  
Reply Tue 22 Mar, 2016 07:42 pm
@Blickers,
Far too reasoned and supported by fact to have sway here. What are you thinking?
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 02:28 am
@Blickers,
That's what a lot of Sanders "supporters" want.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 02:38 am
@Lash,
Lash wrote:
Because I want him to win. You're more conservative than I am.


Ah-hahahahahahahaha . . .

Unintentional comedy is the best kind.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 02:44 am
@Blickers,
I agree with your analysis, but i don't get your 550 votes line. Do you mean by 550 votes in Florida? Because no matter how you slice it, Gore won the popular vote, and Bush won in the electoral college. Gore won the popular vote, the "general election," by 543,895 votes.
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 06:15 am
@Blickers,
You assume its over for Bernie. And its not. Hillary just played her strong states, lets give the rest of the country a voice, too. If the primary system is flawed, why trust the polls???
snood
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 07:08 am
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:

You assume its over for Bernie. And its not. Hillary just played her strong states, lets give the rest of the country a voice, too. If the primary system is flawed, why trust the polls???

Short of Bernie announcing its over, what kind of sign or metric would you see as an acceptable indication that his bid for the nomination is effectively over?
parados
 
  4  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 08:33 am
@bobsal u1553115,
It's not mathematically over for Bernie but it effectively is. He needs to win almost 67% of the remaining delegates. That isn't going to happen.

The last poll in NY showed Hillary with 71% support. The last California poll, which was a couple of months ago, showed Hillary up by 11 points over Sanders. Those are the two of the biggest states left. Bernie isn't going to turn those states into 70% support for him.
Blickers
 
  4  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 08:50 am
@Setanta,
Quote Setanta:
Quote:
i don't get your 550 votes line. Do you mean by 550 votes in Florida?

Yes. Gore won the popular vote overall by over half a million, but the less-than-550 votes that the Supreme Court decided that Bush won Florida by, (actually 537 votes to be exact), put Bush on top in the Electoral College.

Incidentally, using the same 80/20 ratio favoring Gore as a second choice for Nader voters, even if Gore lost Florida he still would have won New Hampshire, and the Electoral College, if Nader had not run.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  4  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 09:06 am
@parados,
I had to explain this to my younger brother and sister (who live in Washington state). They were so excited about Bernie and were convinced that he was going to win. Then after walking them through how the system works, and showing mathematically that a Sanders victory is all but impossible...well, they're less excited.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 09:16 am
@bobsal u1553115,
The primary system is fine. The flaw is with people who are going to go all #bernieorbust and run the risk of a Trump or Cruz presidency.

No real way that Bernie can win though, I know you can see that if you think about it.
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 11:09 am
@snood,
How about we make it half way through the primaries first???????
snood
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 11:15 am
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:

How about we make it half way through the primaries first???????

That's an answer. So, if Bernie's percentage of the delegates is unchanged when we're 3/4 of the way through, will that count as an indication? Are you sure you'll recognize it's over without Bernie announcing it?

I know you guys take admonitions to be realistic as insulting, so please forgive me.
ehBeth
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 11:19 am
@snood,
I wonder if halfway by time, or halfway by pledged delegate will be found acceptable - or if the target will shift again.
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 11:22 am
@maporsche,
The primary season is not fine and its not even transparent, especially in caucus states. The rules are wildly all over the map and "super delegates" whether they're needed or not anymore, are not being used for their original purpose: to guarantee a voice for black voters and other groups whose interests were being ignored by politicians at the Convention.

The real question is: how many of the independent voters who back Bernie effectively have no voice in the sausage factory of a primary and Convention and with an "anointed" one who speaks for them about as much as Trump or Cruz will?

This may be how the DNC fobbles a softball pitch way to the White House.

It could also be the way to a revamping of the election system to allow for a true third party challenger in future elections.
ehBeth
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 11:25 am
@bobsal u1553115,
Why should independents have any voice in the selection of a leader of a group they are not members of?

In any other group, I wouldn't want non-members to have a say in group leadership.
bobsal u1553115
 
  3  
Reply Wed 23 Mar, 2016 11:30 am
@ehBeth,
Its not a target. I want viable candidates to run to the Convention. There's more determined at the Convention than just the candidates, there's a platform, too. Don't you feel that Bernie's raised more interest than a marginal candidate?

I want Hillary to "evolve" a little more by the time I have to vote for her (and I will have no problem whatsoever voting for her if she gets the nod). She'll need Bernie's supporters, too and its way too early to tell them their concerns mean nothing, their voice is wasted. Remember: there are super critical Congressional seats in the air and Hillary will need to lead Bernie's followers to the voting booths to get the work of straightening out Congress started.
 

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