@layman,
layman wrote:One of the principal arguments used to condemn the nukings (advanced by Eisenhower himself, as I recall) was that Japan was basically defenseless and was on the verge of collapse anyway.
Except they weren't defenseless. The casualties that we were expecting to come from an invasion were equal to everything that we had suffered in WWII up to that point.
In other words, had Japan not surrendered, Hiroshima and Nagasaki would have marked the half-way point of the war instead of marking the end of the war.
We still have purple heart medals that were made in anticipation of the invasion of Japan because the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined caused fewer casualties than what we were expecting to come from the invasion of Japan.
layman wrote:As if continued fire-bombings by "Bombs away" Lemay would have somehow been preferable, eh? Many more civilians died from previous indiscriminate fire-bombing than from the A-bombs.
Actually after early disasters like Tokyo, Japanese civilians had learned to take us at our word when we first dropped warning leaflets and then sent a large group of bombers towards their city at night. They got good at fleeing their cities when our bombers approached.
layman wrote:And of course a main feature of our strategy was to convince the Japs that we had hundreds of A-bombs that we could just drop seriatim indefinitely.
That was actually the case. We were quickly ramping up production and would have been producing ten A-bombs a month by the end of 1945, had the war continued.
We would have shifted to storing up bombs though, and using them en masse to clear away resistance before our invasions. About a dozen would have been used to soften up Japanese resistance to Olympic.
layman wrote:A long siege, would have, as noted in a prior post, presumably resulted in about 200,000 dead civilians per month in the far east. Dropping the nukes was the best course, even if that entailed the mass slaughter of civilians.
There wasn't going to be a long siege. If Japan had kept refusing to surrender, we were going to invade.