Biden seems to be a decent guy, and there are a number of reasons to believe he actually is, but he's still a major league politician.
I don't for a second doubt the sincerity of his grief over the death of his son, and I'm sure it's playing a role in his decision making, but for major league politicians the line between the "real world" and the feelings it produces in them, and the world of their political ambitions is very blurred. Major league ballplayers have to have extraordinary reflexes and politicians who play in the Bigs have to have an extraordinary capacity for rationalizing.
A great many of them enter politics because they believe in certain noble causes and/or with the certainty that they are not going accept the devil's deal of trading their principles for achievement, or selling their influence for the money needed to remain in office. Any politician who makes it to the majors (and certainly Biden is one of them) eventually has to do all the things their young idealistic self swore they would not. There may be a few who are in a perpetual state of self-loathing for having succumbed, but I wouldn't bet on it. There may be some who rather easily threw away their principles and embraced the the dark side, and, of course, there are some who didn't have any principles to compromise when they first got in the game.
However, I feel pretty certain that the majority of the idealistic rookies who eventually make it to the political big leagues and it's equivalents of the play-offs have, perhaps quite unconsciously, developed an extraordinary ability to rationalize. They believe their website bios and their campaign flyers that tell of their long and tireless struggles for one cause or another; some constituency; some core principle; some lofty goal. More importantly, they believe that they are unique in terms of their ability to achieve these things and therefore it crucial that they obtain and/or maintain the power that will enable them to do so.
Once one gets past the first struggle with rationalizing bad behavior, it becomes pretty easy and if one does it for decades, it becomes second nature.
So, of course, Biden was devastated by his son's death and yes, he is still beset by grief, but I don't, at all, believe that it is beyond him to talk about it in public and express how it might keep him from entering the race, while at the same time not only working diligently behind the scenes to prepare for an entry, but having already made up his mind that he will run. Nothing he said to Colbert would constitute lying if I'm correct. I'm sure he does feel that he shouldn't run if he can't give it his all, but that doesn't mean he feels he can't, and it certainly doesn't preclude an eventual speech during which he announces to the country that he's all in.
Some may declare me a cynic (or worse
) and others may agree with me, but also believe that Biden is the cynic, an unprincipled dirtball,however I think it's a bit more complicated than that.
Biden has played in the big leagues for a long time and so we can safely assume, without specific evidence, that he has on more than one occasion compromised his principles. His difficulties with plagiarism alone are evidence of a character that, to some extent, is flawed. Overall he's a decent guy and perhaps far less flawed than many of his fellow players, but there really is no reason to believe what he says about anything.
There are numerous signs that he intends to run and too many coincidences to think otherwise. Sure, even if he's not made up his mind he would have had to start the process rolling or never have been in a position to jump in once he did decide. Yes, he may not run, but if he doesn't I think it will be far more to do with a calculus of his chances of winning rather than lack of committed ambition (Although that is precisely the reason we will hear if he announces he's not running)
I think he's getting in, because I think Clinton is on a downward spiral and the further she drops the more the current obstacles to his entering are cleared away. At that point he comes to the mound as the Saver, savior of the Democrats chances to keep the White House, and honoring his deceased son's wishes that he lead the nation...and he'll believe it all.
