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Iran - What Nuclear Weapons Program?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 12:41 am
@oralloy,
Okay, say that the US secret service findings are nonsense.

So, what's your solution?
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 12:42 am
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
They need nuclear power because it was estimated five or six years ago that domestic Iranian consumption of petroleum was growing so fast that within ten years there would be no oil left over for export, and oil constitutes the vast majority of their foreign trade. , and that ten year period only has a couple of years to run. So yes, ironically, yoiu're right, Roger.


If Iran was merely after nuclear power, they would not be trying to build all the necessary infrastructure for creating nuclear weapons, and they would not be illegally keeping the IAEA from inspecting their sites.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 12:45 am
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:
It was fine for them to seek nuclear power when the Shah was fab.


The Shah was not causing trouble in the region.

The Shah was actually after nuclear power, and was not trying to create the infrastructure necessary to build nuclear weapons.

The Shah did not prevent the IAEA from inspecting his sites.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 12:48 am
@JTT,
JTT wrote:
The Iranians have as much right as anyone on the planet to pursue all the science they please.


International law says otherwise.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 12:50 am
@High Seas,
High Seas wrote:
Furthermore none of their neighbors worries about them getting a few nukes


Balderdash. Most of their neighbors are overwhelmingly concerned about the possibility, and would do anything to stop it.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 01:05 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
High Seas wrote:
Furthermore none of their neighbors worries about them getting a few nukes - what are they going to do with them?


That's the bottom line; why worry when their neighbors aren't worried?


Setting aside the fact that Iran's neighbors are extremely worried, if someone else is foolishly unworried about a clear threat, that is no reason to share their folly.




cicerone imposter wrote:
Developing missiles that can travel half way around the world is probably a bigger challenge then making a nuclear bomb.


Iran has already put a satellite in orbit.




cicerone imposter wrote:
If you want to talk about a "suitcase" size bomb, I'd like to know how that's possible?


Create a hollow mass of plutonium shaped like a squashed ball. Put a mix of deuterium and tritium in the center. Surround it with explosives shaped so that the explosion will compress the plutonium into a solid sphere. Slip the entire unit into an office briefcase. Should be good enough for 10 to 20 kilotons.




cicerone imposter wrote:
I have worked with nuclear weapons, and the necessary hardware wouldn't fit in any suitcase.


Sure it would. Pretty much any miniaturized thermonuclear warhead has the same volume as a typical suitcase. It'd weigh about a thousand pounds, but the volume would be about right.

If you want something that a human could lift and carry, you'd need to step down to an ordinary A-bomb similar to the device I described above.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 01:14 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
Oralloy wrote:
Odds are they are hiding an illegal nuclear weapons program however.


That's also foolish. Who are they going to use it against?


When Iran starts causing so much trouble that the west feels there is no choice but to intervene militarily against them, Iran will threaten to nuke London and Paris if the west does not back down.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 01:17 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
Okay, say that the US secret service findings are nonsense.

So, what's your solution?


There are three possibilities really.

a) bomb Iran's nuclear program into powder, and keep bombing them as they try to rebuild

b) crush them with brutal world-wide sanctions (similar to North Korea) when they successfully build nukes

c) scrap the NPT, resume development/testing/advancement of our own nuclear weapon designs, build our arsenal back up to Cold War levels, and share all of our nuclear weapons technology with Israel and other allies
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 02:41 am
There is, of course, a fourth possibility, which actually would bring peace to the region. The Israelis could actually start negotiations in good faith, without their usual precondition that the Palestinians in essence accept entirely all that Israel demands before they will even deign to talk about anything the Palestinians might want (which means essentially agreeing to give up in advance anything the Palestinians want), and settling IN THOSE TALKS everything Israel has refused to even consider until some indefinite time down the road, things like a right of return for Palestinians as well as Jews, a settlement of land questions, reparations or a return of Palestinian refugees' land, as mandated by international law, and a settlement of land, water, and defense control that gives Palestinians back their control of their own land. Israel has been jerking the Palestinians around on the big questions for 60 years now. It's time to settle them. That, of course, is something Israel has spent a lifetime refusing to consider, and that's why, sometime, it's inevitable that they will lose a war. Everybody does. And when that happens,THEY will be the ones dispossessed, because they refused to come to an accomodation with the people they dispossessed. Karma comes back to haunt you.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 10:37 am
@oralloy,
You wrote,
Quote:
There are three possibilities really.

a) bomb Iran's nuclear program into powder, and keep bombing them as they try to rebuild


What makes you think any country will approve such an attack?

Quote:
b) crush them with brutal world-wide sanctions (similar to North Korea) when they successfully build nukes


Ain't gonna happen; China and Russia are against such sanctions.

Quote:
c) scrap the NPT, resume development/testing/advancement of our own nuclear weapon designs, build our arsenal back up to Cold War levels, and share all of our nuclear weapons technology with Israel and other allies


Our country continues its R&D on nuclear weapons.
They don't need our "technology." Most of those countries already have nuke weapons.
Increasing nuclear weapons is dumb; there's enough to blow up this planet tens times over today.

oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 02:53 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
There is, of course, a fourth possibility, which actually would bring peace to the region. The Israelis could actually start negotiations in good faith,


If you want to restart negotiations, I'd recommend not accompanying the request with an outrageously untrue suggestion that Israel was not negotiating in good faith before. That outrageous suggestion alone is enough to doom the new negotiations before they even start.

However, the Palestinians have little to do with Iran's quest to develop nuclear weapons. Restarting negotiations is a laudable goal (presuming they are not doomed from the start), but it will do nothing to solve the problem Iran poses.



MontereyJack wrote:
without their usual precondition that the Palestinians in essence accept entirely all that Israel demands before they will even deign to talk about anything the Palestinians might want (which means essentially agreeing to give up in advance anything the Palestinians want),


There is no precondition on the Israeli side. Israel has been willing to follow the Roadmap For Peace.

The Palestinians are the ones who are trying to impose an illegitimate precondition (a premature halt to settlement construction) before talks even begin.



MontereyJack wrote:
and settling IN THOSE TALKS everything Israel has refused to even consider until some indefinite time down the road, things like a right of return for Palestinians as well as Jews, a settlement of land questions, reparations or a return of Palestinian refugees' land, as mandated by international law, and a settlement of land, water, and defense control that gives Palestinians back their control of their own land. Israel has been jerking the Palestinians around on the big questions for 60 years now.


Not at all. The issues could have been settled in negotiations back in 2000, but the Palestinians reacted to the negotiations by sending wave after wave of suicide bombers to massacre Israelis until the Israeli government collapsed, and the negotiations collapsed with it.

After that, Israel attempted unilateral separation, which would not have given the Palestinians the same borders they would have gotten through negotiations, but would have given them a viable state. The Palestinians responded to the start of unilateral separation by turning Gaza into an artillery battery for firing on civilians.

Since then, Israel has repeatedly been willing to negotiate based on the Roadmap For Peace, but the Palestinians have refused to come and negotiate.



MontereyJack wrote:
It's time to settle them. That, of course, is something Israel has spent a lifetime refusing to consider, and that's why, sometime, it's inevitable that they will lose a war. Everybody does. And when that happens,THEY will be the ones dispossessed, because they refused to come to an accomodation with the people they dispossessed. Karma comes back to haunt you.


It is unlikely that the US will allow Israel to ever become weaker than their neighbors.

If Israel ever does face an invasion they cannot handle conventionally, they have a battery of atomic artillery at the ready to destroy the invaders.

If anyone ever tries using nukes against Israel, they will face massive retaliation from both Israel and the US.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 03:10 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
Oralloy wrote:
There are three possibilities really.

a) bomb Iran's nuclear program into powder, and keep bombing them as they try to rebuild


What makes you think any country will approve such an attack?


Both the US and Israel have expressed willingness to carry out such an attack. Israel is perhaps more willing than the US, but both are prepared to do it under certain circumstances.



cicerone imposter wrote:
Oralloy wrote:
b) crush them with brutal world-wide sanctions (similar to North Korea) when they successfully build nukes


Ain't gonna happen; China and Russia are against such sanctions.


Perhaps. But if they are faced with Option C as their only alternative, they might go for Option B.



cicerone imposter wrote:
Oralloy wrote:
c) scrap the NPT, resume development/testing/advancement of our own nuclear weapon designs, build our arsenal back up to Cold War levels, and share all of our nuclear weapons technology with Israel and other allies


Our country continues its R&D on nuclear weapons.


Maybe basic R&D, but no actual development of new weapons.

We stopped developing large-ish designs in the mid 1970s when treaty limits prevented nuclear tests greater than 150kt.

We've not developed a new warhead of any type since the end of the Cold War. (The bunker buster nuke was not a new warhead, just an existing warhead inside a very robust container.)



cicerone imposter wrote:
They don't need our "technology." Most of those countries already have nuke weapons.


Israel only has Sloika-type warheads. Switching over to our latest thermonuclear warhead designs would be a vast qualitative improvement to their arsenal.

In particular, the design of the W87-0, with its high efficiency and minimal use of scarce resources, would be quite useful to Israel. Giving them that design would not only multiply the yield of their warheads, it would also allow them to produce a larger number of warheads, all while using the same amount of nuclear material that they are using in their current arsenal.


Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Germany, Georgia, and Poland have no nuclear weapons, so would have a vast increase in power if we shared all our nuclear weapons technology with them.



cicerone imposter wrote:
Increasing nuclear weapons is dumb; there's enough to blow up this planet tens times over today.


We have been steadily drawing down our arsenal, and it is a mere shadow of what it once was. It will take a major expansion for us to get back to the point where we can take out the entire world again.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 03:16 pm
@oralloy,
"Willingness?" Where did you learn that?

From TheHill.com.
Quote:

Top US general cautions Israel, says attack on Iran would be ‘destabilizing’
By Jordy Yager - 02/19/12 05:20 PM ET
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 03:25 pm
@oralloy,
Quote:
but it will do nothing to solve the problem Iran poses.


Iran is not the problem. It never has been. US government intelligent sources, - kind of an oxymoron but whatever - state time and again that Iran is NOT a threat but delusional old Oralboy just soldiers on in his fantasy world.

This, from an expert describes who the real problem in the world is.

Quote:

The CIA and the Gulf War
by John Stockwell
A speech delivered on 1991-02-20 at the
Louden Nelson Community Center, Santa Cruz, California

...

But first, how many people have read ..... The last time I was here, I asked you to ..... How many people actually read Howard Zinn's bookA People's History of the United States? ..... That's better! Everybody else: Tomorrow, call in sick. Don't go to class. Read this book! Quite simply, you will never understand the U.S. System as completely until you read it. And once you read it, you will be able to understand what's happening, broadly, for the rest of your life. It's extremely well-written, extremely well- documented, tremendously moving, with quotes on every page: every phase of our history, as viewed, not from the interests of the country and big business — as our high school textbooks are and as our college textbooks are — but from the viewpoint of the people who died in the wars, who fought in the wars, who paid for the wars, and who profited from the wars, of course.

This war we're going to talk about tonight is called the "Persian Gulf War" — the "SuperBowl War" — the "Made-for-Television War" — the "Pentagon-Edited War" — the "Women-Have-a-Right-to-Kill,-Die- and-Be-Captured-Too War" — "the Censored War" — the "Saddam Hussein-is-So-Evil-We-Have-to-Do-It War" — and the "I've-Got-to-Support-Our-Troops-Right-or-Wrong War".

Now this thing was thoroughly prepared for six months, overtly, by the United States Government, the Pentagon, and the Media — CNN [Cable News Network] getting into it many weeks ago with heavy coverage. We covered it so thoroughly that on January 14th ..... and I've been writing screenplays and things, trying to make a living, with CNN on ..... On the 14th, waiting for the kick-off, they had an Emory University professor on who gave us advice on how to play Wall Street to profit from the war before it happened. His advice is very simple — in case you're sitting on a bundle of money and you don't want to give it to the Christic Institute or to me — He said: "Jump now." That was on the 14th. He said: "Don't wait a few days because then, other people will be jumping. Go in right now!" And then, he said: "The U.S. dollar will go up temporarily, so buy Japanese yen. Wait `til it goes up, then buy Japanese yen because by the end of the year the dollar will be back down and the yen will have doubled in value again and you can make a bundle on that.

Every obscene coverage that we could possibly do!

And then the whole world waited, on the 15th and 16th, for the kickoff of this great modern war. Now, some people waited, or had been waiting, longer than others. I found myself in the position (albeit a country boy from Texas who grew up in Africa; but you know) reading books and having seen a little bit of this stuff from the National Security Council level, I had been able to predict, nine months ahead of time, that the U.S. would invade Panama. And this was not a shot in the dark. This was an analysis of the United States and George Bush — for whom I worked, at the end of the "Angola Secret War", where I was the task force commander for a subcommittee of the National Security Council, and he was the CIA Director responsible for fending off the Congress.

...

Now at the same time, through these years, people like Harry Summers, a colonel, teaching at the War College, writing his book on strategy, analyzing the Vietnam War for the failures of the Vietnam War, not apologetic, not that it was a wrong war. Not at all! He was saying that what we'd done wrong was we had failed to orchestrate the war and to organize and motivate the American People to support it; and that it went on too long, and we didn't win, and we didn't go in decisively enough with a major military strike. The Military has always maintained that if they could have gone in, all out, they would have won in Vietnam very efficiently, and that they were hamstrung by the politicians, and were prevented from fighting a good war. Dean Rusk, when he came out of office and retired, he said that the next war cannot be fought in the eye of the television camera with the Public second-guessing the generals as they're making decisions on the battlefields.

Now, you'll notice the interesting thing about that is, One: that he was wrong. He didn't understand that they could so captivate the nation that they could fight the war in the eye of the television camera. But it was a censored television camera, with the media playing along in the censorship. But perhaps the most significant thing about his statement was the fact that he was absolutely, blithely confident that there would BE another war.

Most of us were presuming that, because of the trauma of the Vietnam War, we had learned that these things are not cool, that they don't work, that we should never do them again. They maintained — the Military — that if the United States had gone in massively in Vietnam, with nukes, if they had to, and won in a few months time, the American People would have supported it, and there would have been no trauma. General Gavlett[sp], in the South Command in Panama, when they were trying to invade Nicaragua, he was saying: "The American People love a good bash, but you've got to get it over with in about six weeks time or it'll go sour on you. You can't afford to have the war still going on while the body bags start coming home."

Now since then, as part of this preparation for this war, this enormously successful preparation for this war — leading the nation into war and restoring the Military Complex — they've been preparing for greater control of our society. Now this is where it gets a little creepy:

They've been laying down a series of laws. I don't have time in the lecture to go through them, but as a matter of fact, I do list all of them that I was aware of in one chapter of this book that's coming out now [The Praetorian Guard: The U.S. Role in the New World Order.] — the National Security laws, which work to give them control of the Press, control of passports; they can stop Jane Fondas and Seymour Hershes from traveling and reporting from places like Hanoi, or My Lai scandals, and such.

You've got to understand that the United States is and has always been a war-loving nation, a warring nation. But one with a smile. We've learned how to put a twist on it so we can feel good about doing what other nations have done that we consider to be evil.

This is part of my analysis. And the CIA, in our training ..... when we were novices, people from the analytical side came to talk to us and they said:

"If you're trying to figure out what a nation is going to do, you don't take the circumstances on the table in front of you and say, the logical thing is that they'll do this. What you do is you look at the history of the country, its cycles of war or whatever. If it's a country that's gone to war frequently in its past, you expect it to go to war again. If it's a country that never goes to war, you expect it to find a peaceful solution."
And with that analysis, about ten years ago (although most of my growth, intellectually, has been since then) I began to just sit down and doodle how many wars the United States has been into. And I noticed there are a whole bunch of them. We've done a lot of this thing. A very warring nation! [War is] very deep in our history. Fifteen wars, as I count them. And this gets semantical. They didn't call Korea a war. They tried not to call Vietnam a war. But [the United States'] major military actions: I count about fifteen, give or take two, if you want to call them minor, but nevertheless, let's say fifteen wars. We've spent fifty years or so at war. We've had two hundred-plus military actions, about once a year, in which we put our troops into other countries to force them to our will. The longest period between wars was between World War I and World War II. The second longest period was between the Vietnam War and the Persian Gulf War.

Now, during the first period, the longest period, we put 12,000 troops with an Allied Force to invade Russia and we put our Marines repeatedly into Latin and Central American countries, again, to force them to our will. And then, of course, we've had low-intensity conflicts, almost uncountable — hundreds and hundreds of them, in between, for example, Vietnam and the Persian Gulf War.

As you begin to read these things (and Howard Zinn's A People's History of the United States is extremely good on following this kind of detail to really give you the punch lines of how the leadership orchestrated the nation into other wars) in each war there was a trigger. If you look at page 290 of that book, [Pres.] Harry Truman wrote a friend, quote:

"In strict confidence, I should welcome almost any war, for I think the country needs one."

http://www.serendipity.li/cia/stock2.html


oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 04:42 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
"Willingness?" Where did you learn that?


Obama has been quite clear that he is willing to use military force should he deem it to be necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.



cicerone imposter wrote:
From TheHill.com.
Quote:
Top US general cautions Israel, says attack on Iran would be ‘destabilizing’
By Jordy Yager - 02/19/12 05:20 PM ET


As I said, Israel is "more" willing than we are.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 04:44 pm
@JTT,
JTT wrote:
Oralloy wrote:
but it will do nothing to solve the problem Iran poses.


Iran is not the problem. It never has been.


Wrong. Their murder of hundreds of Americans over the past decades has been quite a problem.

And their illegal nuclear weapons program will only make things even worse.



JTT wrote:
US government intelligent sources, - kind of an oxymoron but whatever - state time and again that Iran is NOT a threat


They say nothing of the sort.



JTT wrote:
but delusional old Oralboy just soldiers on in his fantasy world.


You'd be so much nicer without the childish namecalling.



Quote:
A speech delivered on 1991-02-20 at the
Louden Nelson Community Center, Santa Cruz, California

...

How many people actually read Howard Zinn's bookA People's History of the United States?


Zinn is the clown who was spewing all those outright lies about the A-bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Drunk Laughing
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 04:47 pm
@oralloy,
Still nothing but your deluded fantasies, Oralboy. But what can you expect from a semen addled brain.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 05:05 pm
@oralloy,
NO; what you said was
Quote:
Both the US and Israel have expressed willingness to carry out such an attack.


JTT
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 05:35 pm
Ron Paul Destroys Rick Santorum On Iran! - Iowa Republian Presidential Debate

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yi12aVa3psc&feature=related
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Feb, 2012 06:32 pm
@JTT,
If only Paul could be as smart domestically.
 

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