Iran - What Nuclear Weapons Program?

@cicerone imposter,

Agree

So much hype about what they can do or not do..
This is irrelevant.
What would Iran do with a product of a tortuous system when manufactured items can be had for far less.

Iran can be trashed as a technological nation with just 4 well placed warheads.
So much emphasis on specialist issues when those are not the cause of conflict.
ONE B2b could remove Iran from the game. Would they risk that?
No

Peace is our profession

Prill

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@Setanta,

You may have noticed that the title of this thread and most of Edgar's amplifying posts were focused on the proposition that Iran certainly does not have a nuclear weapons program. You added information and your opinions suggesting that our supposed intelligence, possibly indicating the existence of such a program, is likely faulty, as indeed it may be.

I merely pointed out that the central proposition of the thread is implausible in the face of well known facts available to all. I made no suggestion as to how far Iran may have progressed or of the advisability of physical intervention on our part or others'. Rather, I suggested that the wish to avoid such an intervention is itself not a reason to believe Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program.

Hardly wisdom being "vouchsafed to you" - merely elementary logic. Your problem is that you often can't tolerate anything but slavish agreement.

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@georgeob1,

Oh kiss my red Irish ass, you pompous, overbearing hypocrite. I not only have no obligation to sign on to EB's views, i have no obligation to sign on to yours, either. This:

Quote:

Your problem is that you often can't tolerate anything but slavish agreement.

Is hilarious irony coming from you.

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@Setanta,

Anybody reading back could tell that setanta and I don't see things in an identical way. Plus, I wavered a few times in some of my posts. I was trying to investigate the issue without falling into the old right/left positions, but I see that is not possible.

1 Reply

@edgarblythe,

I believe I accurately differentiated between your expressed views and those expressed by Setanta, so I presume that comment is not directed at me. As for the "old right/left positions" I believe you are the only person indulging in that stuff on this thread.

I have expressed no opinion on the reliability, veracity or even the supposed content of our possible intelligence on what may or may not be going on in Iran. Instead I have provided you a rational analysis of the likely motives for elements of their behavior and actions that are widely known and accepted as certainly true by all concerned, including the Iranians themselves.

I have avoided any comment at all on the advisability or lack thereof of intervention in Iran, don't know of any impediment here to your dispassionate inverstigation of the issue, and can see no reason for you to give up on ther goal if that is truly your intent.

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Here's an issue about Iran that's more "dangerous" to the world economy at large, and they have the balls to threaten the world community.

Quote:

Iran reportedly claims to have shot down U.S. spy

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Iran has shot down an American drone aircraft in eastern Iran, the country's state television said Sunday, citing a military source, according to media reports. Iran's military response to the U.S. "spy drone's violation of our airspace will not be limited to Iran's borders," the military source reportedly said. Tehran could retaliate with hit-and-run strikes in the Gulf and by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which about 40% of all traded oil departs the Gulf region, analysts told Reuters.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Iran made similar claims in January and July. They never seem able to provide any photographic or video evidence, though.

Not saying this couldn't be true...

1 Reply

@Irishk,

Maybe a well placed small nuke in Tehran will shut them up! Then, they have cause to retaliate.

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Ron Paul said that claims Iran could be developing a nuclear weapon are just part of an effort to scare Americans into going to war again.

Paul said of the possibility that Iran has a nuclear weapon is “not true at all.” “It doesn’t mean they might not want a nuclear weapon.”

No other country, Paul said, is capable of attacking the United States.

“How many foreign countries can threaten us right now?” Paul asked sarcastically. “How many are likely to invade us or drop a bomb on us? I can’t imagine.”

Paul railed on the PATRIOT Act, a pet issue that he frequently brings up on the trail.

“The PATRIOT Act was written many, many years before 9/11,” Paul said. The attacks simply provided “an opportunity for some people to do what they wanted to do,” he said.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70156.html#ixzz1gGwzdOPA

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@georgeob1,

What IRAN has or does not have.
In military force terms. Means nothing., Even if it has 'A weapons'

Iran is a dead dog
It is no threat to any nation.
[and it has little oil]

It's threat is 'shia islam'
and you can't kill an idea with guns

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@Setanta,

Oh kiss my red Irish ass, you pompous, overbearing hypocrite.
hahahahaaaa

well said

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@cicerone imposter,

@Irishk,
Maybe a well placed small nuke in Tehran will shut them up! Then, they have cause to retaliate.
---------------------------------------------------
so you would incinerate thousands of children.
For a perceived threat to US.

percieved by you.. master of geopolitics.

1 Reply

@Hjarloprillar,

No, I personally wouldn't, but the US has done worse. What 'they' will do in the future is anybody's guess.

Look what happened when GW Bush lied about Saddam's WMD's. Tens of thousands of innocent Iraqis lost their lives.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

ah 'cicerone'
agree on wmd farce.
Yes the US has done far worse.
What fightens many is that US is not predictable. It says ti Iraq ,, do what you want. Then uses that to wage war and take Iraq [the invader]
Such as this
Scared the **** out of the USSR. and by default it fell to pieces
which scared the **** out of US.

lol

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@edgarblythe,

edgarblythe wrote:

My point is, I am not looking for emotional or ideological arguments. Just the Joe Friday facts.

It is a fact that Iran is doing their best to keep their program hidden and secret. Everything we know of their program was exposed against their will.

I consider such secrecy to be proof that it is a weapons program.

It is also a fact that Iran is building a heavy water reactor at Arak.

I don't see what they could use it for other than production of weapons-grade plutonium.

Also, there is the latest IAEA report:

Quote:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/uk-nuclear-iran-highlights-idUKTRE7A778R20111108

The below includes extracts from the annex to the IAEA report which cites information from member states the agency has assessed as credible.

Iran has:

-- Sought to procure equipment, materials and services which would be useful in the development of a nuclear explosive device. These include high speed electronic switches and spark gaps which could be used for triggering and firing detonators, neutron sources, radiation detection and measuring equipment, training courses on topics relevant to nuclear explosives development.

-- Been provided with nuclear explosive design information, a member of a clandestine nuclear supply network told the agency in 2007.

-- Sought information on how to convert highly-enriched uranium into a metal, a step needed to make a nuclear core for a weapon.

-- Developed "exploding bridgewire detonators." "Iran's development of such detonators and equipment is a matter of concern," the report said, citing links to an initiation system.

-- Conducted high-scale explosive experiments in the region of Marivan.

-- Manufactured simulated nuclear explosive components using high density materials such as tungsten.

-- Built a large explosives containment vessel to conduct experiments at Parchin in 2000.

-- Carried out nuclear device modelling studies in 2008 and 2009.

-- Worked to manufacture small capsules suitable for carrying components filled with nuclear material. Such components could be used in a fission chain reaction. This work may have continued after 2004.

-- Planned and carried out preliminary experiments which would be useful for the testing of a nuclear bomb.

-- Studied how to fit payloads onto the re-entry vehicle of a Shahab 3 missile and examined how they would function in theory during launch and flight. The activities may be relevant to a non-nuclear payload but would be highly relevant to a nuclear weapon program, the IAEA said.

-- Worked on developing a prototype firing system which would allow a payload to explode in the air above a target, or upon hitting the ground in the missile re-entry vehicle.

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@edgarblythe,

edgarblythe wrote:

I don't believe Iran is nearly the threat it is made out to be.

If Iran is allowed to break the NPT with no repercussions, there will not be a NPT for much longer, because any other country that desires nukes will just do the same.

The proliferation pressures will come rather quickly too. Israel will have to come out of the nuclear closet and start doing nuclear tests to ensure they have a deterrent. The US will of course ignore any proliferation hysteria over this, and will continue to provide Israel with full military aid.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia will also want to develop nuclear weapons to protect against Iran. The only thing that even might deter them would be *devastating* world-wide sanctions against Iran, and the threat to do the same to Egypt and Saudi Arabia if they follow in Iran's footsteps.

In addition, Iran is quite a troublemaker. Their illegal acts did not stop with holding Americans hostage in 1979. There were also the bombings that killed hundreds of Marines in Lebanon in the 1980s, the kidnappings in Lebanon in the 1980s, the attacks on our warships in the 1980s, the bombings of American soldiers in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s, and I think I'm missing a few from that list.

That was all when Iran didn't have a nuclear deterrent and had to worry about being attacked if they went too far. Once they get their own nuclear deterrent, they'll be much worse.

1 Reply

@edgarblythe,

edgarblythe wrote:

They have had a number of cooperative programs with nations that withdrew materials and support, including the USA. The only surefire way to get enriched uranium seems to be to make their own.

Iran's claims to this effect are nonsense. The international community will sell uranium to any open civilian nuclear power program, and it is not even remotely plausible that they will not. It is the bedrock of the NPT.

In addition, Russia is providing the reactor they built at Bushier with all the uranium it needs. Iran doesn't need to worry about fueling it to begin with.

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@oralloy,

Can't they get "yellow cake" from Africa?

1 Reply

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

edgarblythe wrote:
I don't believe Iran is nearly the threat it is made out to be.

If Iran is allowed to break the NPT with no repercussions, there will not be a NPT for much longer, because any other country that desires nukes will just do the same.

Given that India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel already have nucs, isn't it too late to make that argument?

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@engineer,

engineer wrote:

oralloy wrote:

edgarblythe wrote:
I don't believe Iran is nearly the threat it is made out to be.

If Iran is allowed to break the NPT with no repercussions, there will not be a NPT for much longer, because any other country that desires nukes will just do the same.

Given that India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel already have nucs, isn't it too late to make that argument?

Perzackly.

0 Replies

Iran - What Nuclear Weapons Program?

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