@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:The fact that they were taking gigantic risks with their own companies - that their companies would collapse in the face of a market crisis - was so obvious to non-bankers that it is highly, highly unlikely that it wasn't also obvious to those who are specialists in their fields.
This is something worth addressing, as you seem to think that it was obvious to you. I don't know whether that is true but it was very clearly not obvious to the financial industry or to the academic community of economists.
And in any such situation, there will have been those who have predicted it. You will always be criticizing corporations, it's kinda your thing, and whenever something bad happens you will have, in a way, "predicted" it.
But one thing I learned from poker is that you can often make bad decisions that have good outcomes, and that it's important to really evaluate whether or not your decision was accurate, and not just say "I thought of this and it happened that way".
So when you say folks like you and dlowan predicted it all along, I think you are ignoring that this is just a gut feel you have. You didn't have an economic model to convince anyone. You did not reach this position based on science, but gut and your overall political outlook. In hind-sight it looks prescient to you, but putting it back into a preventative context the lack of an evidentiary basis to the opinion makes it something that, to me, falls far short of the way you see it, where it was all "obvious" to you.
So I think you are dramatically overestimating the strength of confidence that this merits and ignoring the role of the fallacy of favorable circumstances.
Quote:The skeptical point of view is one that views claims that these people didn't know what they were doing as farcical.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree about this. I think that at most that some people knew that they were taking undue risks, I think that your claim that they knew that these risks would result in the demise of their companies, and that they did not care about it and proceeded anyway, is an extraordinary claim that this does not begin to substantiate.
Quote:There's every reason to believe that many of them, if not most of them, knew exactly what they were doing.
In hind-sight predicting economic models may not look as difficult as it does with foresight. There is plenty of evidence that they were blindsided, and practically none that they knew what they were doing.
Why do you think the academic community of economists say they were blindsided? Why do you think they say they need to rethink their economic models? Why do you think they are revisiting the central tenets of economics and macro-economic stability?
Because this was simply not something the academic community of economists thought was likely at all. And my question to you, is why you think that is and why you think that this complex subject was something that you cut through as a layman and saw the "obvious" problems with?
I posit that you had some qualms with them and their behavior but that it was not at all "obvious" to you what would happen, merely that you considered it to be wrong.
Quote:The logical path to this conclusion is far more believable than your account that these supposed experts had no clue that the risks they were taking were perilous to their companies, a proposition that has absolutely no evidence to back it up at all.
You are being very intellectually dishonest Cyclo. I have never made this claim, or anything like it. All I said is that there is no evidence for your extraordinary claim. This does not mean that I am making a claim that is the exact negative of yours.
It is utterly intellectually dishonest, when asked to substantiate your position to claim I must substantiate its opposite. I do think that bankers took risks that they knew were risks (which by nature are "perilous") but this is an essential part of their industry and a far cry from your claim that they knew what the result of their risks would be.
That, in a nutshell, is what I am most skeptical about. You aren't just claiming that they knowingly took risks, you are claiming that they knowingly did so while also knowing that the results would be catastrophic to their companies and not caring.
I posit that it is much more likely that the majority of them did not believe that their risks would collapse their companies.
Quote:It has become quite apparent to many Americans that Wall Street and the financial industry no longer serve a beneficial purpose for the vast majority of our citizens, and we owe them no benefit of the doubt whatsoever. In fact, many of us believe it's time that this industry is brought to heel - no matter what the false cries from the wealthy bankers are as to how this will harm the economy. What you are seeing now is the beginning of this process, and it's something I've cheered on for years.
This is wishful thinking, Wall Street and the financial industry are going nowhere, and aren't even going to well-regulated. I fault extremist positions for making it so difficult, and think yours are a good example.
It's a pity, because we want many of the same things but you are stuck on this blame and attacking nonsense.
Quote:I dearly hope that the protestors and activists are successful at forcing our society to re-evaluate the structure of our financial system, and hopefully end the process of putting unlimited profits above all other concerns - a corrosive moral set which is destroying our nation, cheered on by those who don't care about the consequences, as long as they have a chance to join that group eventually.
It won't happen because the majority of this movement is daft and advocates stupid solutions. Half of your solutions make sense, half are insane. The insane ones make it harder for you to sell the ones that make sense.
Nothing will happen. You and I agree on nearly everything I want to do, but you'd rather spend your time exhorting me to blame and attack bankers as much as you do.
It's idiotic. Attack the politicians, they are the ones who can change things and don't. They are the ones who let the scapegoating of bankers hide that the problem is systemic. So instead of blaming the system small minds get to fixate on human villains.
The system will
not get fixed, partly because of this.