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Two weeks into Occupy Wall Street protests, movement is at a crossroads

 
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:11 am
@Cycloptichorn,
The obvious flaw in your argument is that banks throughout the modern world behaved very much as did those you so confidently condemn on Wall Street. Are the French and German national banks which lent so progfligately to Greece and are now so dangerously exposed to its looming fiunancial collapse subject to the same condemnations? The same story (even worse) was repeated in Ireland, Latvia, and in Spanish caja retail banks, but with respect to consumer loans. That Greece was cooking the books in its financial reports to the EU, and that a bubble in real estate and consumer loans was developing was likely fairly well known within the major banks involved in Europe. Then, of course, there are the government officials in Greece and other major countries (including our own) who have dangerously accumulated unsustainable levels of public debt in pursuit of short term political interests. Does that alone demonstrate the existence of a knowing conspiracy on the part of managers pursuing their own short term interests? I don't think so.

Should they all "be brought to heel"? How?

Today's news includes reports of the 11 year sentence given to Galleon Group (Hedge Fund) founder Raj Rajaratnan as a result of his conviction for insider trading and wrongful use of purloined information. We can likely agree that he was knowingly pursuing what he believed to be his short term interest. However, does it follow he knew that a bad result for his company and investors would follow? I don't think so. It is much more likely that he (foolishly as it now appears) thought he could get away with it, despite the now evident fact that his methods and unusual results were becoming more evident every day and the discoverable evidence against him was growing with it.

In short humans, at all levels, are very susceptable to the illusion that they can or will escape otherewise predictable bad consequences associated with their actions. Moreover, this observable trait doesn't lend itself to being readily limited by regulations, however well-intended -- as the Galleon case so amply demonstrates. I would be very interested to learn of any contrary lessons you have learned in your "... thorough study of himan history in such events".
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:12 am
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Fair enough, I misrepresented the degree to which [intent] matters to your ethical calculations and retract that misrepresentation. (Noun inserted---T)

Philosophical tangent: Present intentions often predict future consequences. Therefore it makes sense to account for them, even in a purely consequentialist ethic like Utilitarianism.
Fido
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:17 am
@BumbleBeeBoogie,
Cross roads or dead end??? Insurrection, or even civil disobedience has only the purpose of education, and when people are willing to stand up in the street and say they are angry, or outraged, then they give courage to others to do the same thing... But a negative object is not an object, and all such a movement needs is a goal before some one will start trying to convert it into a source of political power... People should forget all that, and act... Do not organize... Resist... Act as the individual you have been told all your life that you are even while being forced to buy off the rack... One size fitzall...It is a matter of personal fulfillment... Be the worm that turns... Look up to the worm that turns... Show you have an ounce of guts and a thimble full of honor in you and resist this destruction of America for the ideology of Capitalism that cannot exist without us... Resist...
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:32 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

The obvious flaw in your argument is that banks throughout the modern world behaved very much as did those you so confidently condemn on Wall Street. Are the French and German national banks which lent so progfligately to Greece and are now so dangerously exposed to its looming fiunancial collapse subject to the same condemnations?


Yes, of course they are! This isn't a condemnation of America or American business practices; it's a condemnation of the global practice of emphasizing ever-increasing levels of risk taking, in the name of unlimited profits.

Quote:
The same story (even worse) was repeated in Ireland, Latvia, and in Spanish caja retail banks, but with respect to consumer loans. That Greece was cooking the books in its financial reports to the EU, and that a bubble in real estate and consumer loans was developing was likely fairly well known within the major banks involved in Europe.


Not just Europe - Goldman Sachs was a major player in helping the Greeks cook their books. They engineered many transactions designed to do exactly that.

Quote:
Should they all "be brought to heel"? How?


Through aggressive expansion of the regulatory state, in regards to the financial sector. Through a societal (globally) discussion about the wisdom of promoting unlimited wealth and unlimited greed.

Re: the governments involved in the European crisis, it seems to me that matters are working themselves out nicely there to bring to heel those who would 'cook the books.' I wouldn't be surprised if you see a lot less of that moving forward, after this event is over.
Quote:

Today's news includes reports of the 11 year sentence given to Galleon Group (Hedge Fund) founder Raj Rajaratnan as a result of his conviction for insider trading and wrongful use of purloined information. We can likely agree that he was knowingly pursuing what he believed to be his short term interest. However, does it follow he knew that a bad result for his company and investors would follow?


Of course it logically follows. Let me ask you: if you were to discover a way to make money - a lot of money - for your family, using a technique which you KNOW is illegal, are you somehow supposed to be unaware that the consequences of your actions could be disastrous for your family? I don't understand this mindset that some of you display, that assumes very intelligent people, who are highly trained in these industries, don't have even the most basic understanding of risk and how taking risks affects the stability of their own companies. It boggles the mind to even consider that.

Quote:

I don't think so. It is much more likely that he (foolishly as it now appears) thought he could get away with it, despite the now evident fact that his methods and unusual results were becoming more evident every day and the discoverable evidence against him was growing with it.


The fact that he 'thought he could get away with it' is not incompatible with the supposition that he knew his company would be negatively effected if they were caught. On the contrary, those two ideas are complimentary. He consciously chose to take a risk, knowing the consequences, because he believed the reward to be worth the low chance of getting caught. That is a far more accurate way to look at the situation.

Quote:
In short humans, at all levels, are very susceptable to the illusion that they can or will escape otherewise predictable bad consequences associated with their actions. Moreover, this observable trait doesn't lend itself to being readily limited by regulations, however well-intended -- as the Galleon case so amply demonstrates. I would be very interested to learn of any contrary lessons you have learned in your "... thorough study of himan history in such events".


You are erroneously assuming that a decision to go forward with risky actions implies a misunderstanding of the consequences of failure. It does not. It merely implies poor judgment and poor moral character.

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:40 am
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:


You are being very intellectually dishonest Cyclo. I have never made this claim, or anything like it. All I said is that there is no evidence for your extraordinary claim. This does not mean that I am making a claim that is the exact negative of yours.


On the contrary; on page 13, you posted a long post explaining how a series of bad decisions by otherwise well-meaning executives for these companies are what led to the crisis, all while attacking those of us who posited that actual decisions by informed people are what led to this crisis. Not mistakes; risks they consciously took, not caring about the consequences of failure if things went south.

In that same post, you wrote 'it's not wrong to bet and lose.' I think this displays a terrible way to look at the situation. These executives didn't just bet big, they bet tremendous - all of our biggest banks were over-leveraged in mortgages and derivatives to the point where they had exceeded the value of our entire GDP as a nation, let alone the cash they had on hand! They gambled with the lives and livelihoods of millions who had trusted them to manage their money properly. Then, the gov't bailed them out, and the executives in question didn't lose anything at all. Your fundamental understanding of the dynamics of what went on are flawed; the idea that executives for these companies couldn't look at their own balance sheets and realize that they were taking tremendous, tremendous risks is a joke.

Regarding the protests and what outcomes they may have, we shall have to wait and see. But I think you are also heavily misguided when you write this:

Quote:

It's idiotic. Attack the politicians, they are the ones who can change things and don't. They are the ones who let the scapegoating of bankers hide that the problem is systemic. So instead of blaming the system small minds get to fixate on human villains.


What kind of small mind does it take, to not see that the system is shaped and controlled by the villains in question? Without making the rich fear for the future, no change will happen, period. You completely misunderstand where the real locus of power in this country lies.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:41 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

You are erroneously assuming that a decision to go forward with risky actions implies a misunderstanding of the consequences of failure. It does not. It merely implies poor judgment and poor moral character.

Cycloptichorn


I made no such assumption, Instead my central point was that human beings at all levels have amply demonstrated the inclination to succomb to the illusion that they will somehow excape otherwise predictable bad outcomes associated with their actions. Indeed I believe the truth of this proposition is very amply demonstrated by human history.

You are free to call that poor judgment and poor moral character, but the fact is these are common human traits - found in great concentrations among bankers, criminals, politicians, and even progressive reformers - as the Solyndra case clearly demonstrates.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:49 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

You are erroneously assuming that a decision to go forward with risky actions implies a misunderstanding of the consequences of failure. It does not. It merely implies poor judgment and poor moral character.

Cycloptichorn


I made no such assumption, Instead my central point was that human beings at all levels have amply demonstrated the inclination to succomb to the illusion that they will somehow excape otherwise predictable bad outcomes associated with their actions. Indeed I believe the truth of this proposition is very amply demonstrated by human history.


This supports my earlier argument, not attacks it. Thanks. I totally agree with you that the bad outcomes in this case were predictable, and those involved realized the possible bad outcomes, and took the actions anyway, because the reward (their personal enrichment) was large enough to merit the risk to their own companies and the whole nation.

Quote:
You are free to call that poor judgment and poor moral character, but the fact is these are common human traits - found in great concentrations among bankers, criminals, politicians, and even progressive reformers - as the Solyndra case clearly demonstrates.


The only difference is that you seek to keep one class - bankers and wall street executives - immune from investigation, prosecution, or even moral condemnation for their actions, while being all too ready to apply these to those who you ideologically oppose (as you have amply proven in this last post).

Cycloptichorn
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:55 am
@Thomas,
I'm reposting Thomas' comments here

Thomas wrote:

Robert Gentel wrote:
My argument was against portraying them as the singular cause of the economic crash when the problems were (and still are) systemic.

That misses the point. Of course the problems are systemic---because America's financial elites managed to have the system rigged in their favor. Our neighbor Canada, by contrast, hasn't had these systemic problems, because they left their system unrigged and properly regulated. It's the pressure from the bankers to rig the system, and the political class's bipartisan choice to give in to it, that merits a populist backlash.


in response to

georgeob1 wrote:

The obvious flaw in your argument is that banks throughout the modern world behaved very much as did those you so confidently condemn on Wall Street.

<snip>

Should they all "be brought to heel"? How?

<snip>

In short humans, at all levels, are very susceptable to the illusion that they can or will escape otherewise predictable bad consequences associated with their actions. Moreover, this observable trait doesn't lend itself to being readily limited by regulations, however well-intended -- as the Galleon case so amply demonstrates. I would be very interested to learn of any contrary lessons you have learned in your "... thorough study of himan history in such events".


the mess wasn't inevitable

it takes some gumption at the government level to do unpopular things
Thomas
 
  4  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 11:58 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
Are the French and German national banks which lent so progfligately to Greece and are now so dangerously exposed to its looming fiunancial collapse subject to the same condemnations? [. . .] Should they all "be brought to heel"?

Sure, why not? (Small correction: The real-estate bubbles in Southern Europe were mostly financed with outflows of private capital from the core, not by "national banks" like the Bundesbank.)

georgeob1 wrote:
How?

I'd start with the same measures Chile took decades ago to protect itself against "hot" money: For every four euros that foreign investors bring into the country, they have to put one into a fixed-deposit account with a one-year term run by the central bank. Other than that, I'd start looking into some of the pre-1972 capital flow controls that were in place under the Bretton-Woods system. (UPDATE, in response to ehBeth: Or look in to the regulatory system for Canadian banks, all of which are "too big to fail", but none of which has caused a crisis like America's and Europe's banks have.)
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 12:00 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

The only difference is that you seek to keep one class - bankers and wall street executives - immune from investigation, prosecution, or even moral condemnation for their actions, while being all too ready to apply these to those who you ideologically oppose (as you have amply proven in this last post).

Cycloptichorn


That's not true. I applaud the conviction and imprisionment of The leader of Galleon Group and believe he was justly convicted of securities fraud. I note also that the former heads of AIG, Bank of America and many other financial institutions have lost their jobs and much of their investments. I don't advocate imprisionment for the DOE and White House officials who knowingly pursued foolish loans of public money to an obviously failing company, pursuing a market that couldn't exist without subsidies. However, I do advocate their removal (by election) from public office for their misguided pursuit of such foolish, illusory goals. I am generally judicious about applying moral condemnations to others whose inner motives I don't know.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 12:04 pm
Quote:
But the protesters’ affection for Jobs isn’t necessarily a sign of bad faith or ignorance. Rather, it could be a healthy discernment, however poorly articulated. The point is not that Jobs was “this different, quiet billionaire,” as one protester put it, but that he lived by the rules through which free-market capitalism should work. When Apple released a product that people rejected, such as the Apple III or the Lisa in the early eighties, the company suffered the consequences. Apple could not expect tens of billions of dollars from the U.S. Treasury or from the Federal Reserve to save it from its own mistakes. Apple was not too big to fail. Before the iPod, the company was struggling. Apple had to make itself too good to fail—and that’s exactly what it did.

Contrast the capitalist world in which Jobs lived with “capitalism,” as the U.S. government has applied it to the big banks against which the Zuccotti Park crowd is—imperfectly—protesting. If you’re a bank or an insurance firm, and you create a product that your investors and your regulators can’t understand in a crisis, you aren’t punished, as Apple was when it released products too complex for its customers. Instead, you get rewarded with bailout money. It’s hard to argue with the Zuccotti protesters’ manifesto on this point: “They have taken bailouts from taxpayers with impunity.”

In the past few years, surviving banks have “succeeded” not by giving people needed or wanted products, as Apple did, but through their ability to hold the entire global economy hostage.
Imagine if Apple and Microsoft executives, instead of competing against one another, had banded together to deliver taxpayers an ultimatum: give us tens of billions to stay afloat, or else we’ll blow up the whole economy. Does anyone think that strangers would be leaving flowers, photos, and bitten fruit?

If this is capitalism, we should all be protesting it. The good news is that it’s not. We’re in this mess—with unemployment holding at 9.1 percent—because the capital markets are utterly broken, and have been for some time.

Who broke the markets? Both parties in Washington. Republicans and Democrats treated financial firms as a class protected from capitalism for years, so long as the banks would keep feeding debt to American homeowners and consumers. To maintain their protected status, large financial firms fed some of the spoils right back to the politicians, in the form of campaign contributions and revolving-door jobs. The Dodd-Frank law, an attempt by the Obama administration and Congress to ensure that massive financial bailouts are a thing of the past, only tied Washington and Wall Street even more closely together. It hasn’t solved the problem any more effectively than the protesters have.

Politicians of both parties should be wary about painting the Occupy Wall Street protesters as “dangerous” or as wagers of “class warfare,” as Mitt Romney did earlier this week. They should be careful, too, in confusing the hard-core, overnight campers in Zuccotti Park with people who go to work every day but share the protesters’ post-TARP alienation. Tom Dematteis, a pizzeria owner and Navy veteran, told the Wall Street Journal Tuesday that “it was his first time protesting and he didn’t plan to camp out,” but that “he believes the financial system . . . doesn’t work for average Americans.” One of President Obama’s rivals might do well to address the fear and anger expressed in the protests. After all, on Thursday, Obama said: “The American people understand that not everybody has been following the rules; that Wall Street is an example of that.” If that’s still true more than a year after Obama signed Dodd-Frank, then the president is accountable.

In the long term, what’s far more “dangerous” than a motley group of civil dissidents—and far more expensive than a few million dollars in NYPD overtime—is a bipartisan policy of pretending that the financial crisis and the enormous harm that it has done to America is somehow over and done with. The financial crisis, and government’s response to it, remains with us, as does the debt that spurred the crisis. Ignoring it won’t make it go away.

Nicole Gelinas, a City Journal contributing editor and the Searle Freedom Trust Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, is the author of After the Fall: Saving Capitalism from Wall Street—and Washington.


http://www.city-journal.org/2011/eon1007ng.html

I bolded a line that really encapsulates the heart of the protests (though their goals are all over the place): the widespread and largely accurate belief that the financial industry does nothing at all to help ordinary Americans, and that their recent malfeasance has harmed all of us with no real repercussions to them whatsoever. That being the case - why should we continue to allow them to take such actions? Why can we not reassert the fact that they survive and thrive based on OUR permission for them to do so, not out of any inherent right to do so? The people of the country have the perfect right to limit sectors of our society from damaging all of us in a quest for their own profits.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 12:10 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

The only difference is that you seek to keep one class - bankers and wall street executives - immune from investigation, prosecution, or even moral condemnation for their actions, while being all too ready to apply these to those who you ideologically oppose (as you have amply proven in this last post).

Cycloptichorn


That's not true. I applaud the conviction and imprisionment of The leader of Galleon Group and believe he was justly convicted of securities fraud. I note also that the former heads of AIG, Bank of America and many other financial institutions have lost their jobs and much of their investments. I don't advocate imprisionment for the DOE and White House officials who knowingly pursued foolish loans of public money to an obviously failing company, pursuing a market that couldn't exist without subsidies. However, I do advocate their removal (by election) from public office for their misguided pursuit of such foolish, illusory goals. I am generally judicious about applying moral condemnations to others whose inner motives I don't know.


Fair enough, then. I would go further and posit that many more such instances of fraud would be discovered if we simply looked for them aggressively, which clearly didn't happen after the crisis.

I would also seek to have criminal liabilities handed out in cases where companies are found to have committed wide-scale fraud - such as we see with Goldman in the NPR piece I linked on the last page, who was fined millions of dollars; but nobody who made an actual decision to engage in this fraud will be held personally responsible. As long as our laws protect those who make such decisions from being held personally responsible, and as long as our governments are willing to settle for blood money instead of actual blood, we will see no end to such things going on; Goldman doesn't give a **** about millions of dollars in penalties when they are making billions by breaking the laws in the first place.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 12:12 pm
@ehBeth,
I generally agree with you. Canada was (then all by itself) approaching very dangerous levels of public debt and current deficits a little over a decade ago. Canadian governments then very wisely applied prudent remedies including reduced public spending and some restraints on private lending as corrective measures. These actions fortuitously protected them from the nearly world wide lending bubble which followed five years later. They are to be commended for their prompt correction of a developing serious problem and their good luck in avoiding a world-wide contaigon in the process.

I don't agree with Thomas' implied proposition that Canada's financial system is permanently rigged in favor of prudence, while ours is so rigged (history demonstrates that both have been susceptible to excesses).

I do agree that the financial messes afflicting Europe and America were not inevitable and indeed had attributable human causes. Moreover, neither we nor the Europeans are out of the financial woods yet. I find it highly ironic to observe that some who are so ready to "morally" condemn bankers for their lack of prudence in the pursuit of what in retrospect are seen to be illusions, but at the same time so willing to forgive favored politicins for precisely the same behavior with respect to public debt.
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:10 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
I don't agree with Thomas' implied proposition that Canada's financial system is permanently rigged in favor of prudence, while ours is so rigged (history demonstrates that both have been susceptible to excesses).

1) I don't think that safety regulations for banks constitute system-rigging any more than safety regulations in building codes do.

2) What is your evidence of stress in Canada's banking system 15 years ago? Was their version of the TED-spread unusually high back then? Did investors demand an unusually high risk premium on Canada's debt? What?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:11 pm
@Thomas,
I have no argument with the capital flow and other controls you suggest. I believe they and other measures are indicated, but don't believe they will provide a permnanent solution. History strongly suggests that ultimately there is no permanent remedy for human folly - whether in free market systems or progressive authoritarian ones.

I believe Canada was fotuitous in avoiding the collapsing debit bubble in 2007 largely as a result of their wise and prudent actions five years earlier in limiting dangerous levels of public and private debt five years earlier. Had that earlier near crisis not been effectively dealt with by them they too would likely have been caught up in the world crisis 0f 2008.

People of all kinds, within government and in the commercial world, are very agile, creative and subject to self-serving illusions in the pursuit of their goals and self interest - and generally more agile and creative than the regulators appointed to restrain them. The human follies so evident in the actions of free markets are present among Platonic progressive reformers to the same extent as among others - as history amply demonstrates.
JTT
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:16 pm
@georgeob1,
Unnn, Gob, could you point me to where you answered this question?

2) What is your evidence of stress in Canada's banking system 15 years ago? Was their version of the TED-spread unusually high back then? Did investors demand an unusually high risk premium on Canada's debt? What?
0 Replies
 
TheLeapist
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:20 pm
@georgeob1,
But someone who has been given that much power and responsibility is expected to overcome these "natural traits."

I ask you to look at the analogy of a husband and a wife. It is natural for a man to pursue a woman he finds attractive, but when you enter the bond of marriage you agree to overcome this natural desire towards anyone but your spouse. So if the man ends up betraying his wife he should not and can not be forgiven merely on the grounds that he was just acting under human nature.

Of course it's natural to want to take big risks for the chance of huge gain, but these are urges that someone with so much influence over the lives of millions of people needs to suppress. Your inability to grasp this concept that cyclo keeps trying to show you is very confusing.

SIDE NOTE: How to you quote someone's post with that box around it?
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:25 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
I believe Canada was fotuitous in avoiding the collapsing debit bubble in 2007 largely as a result of their wise and prudent actions five years earlier in limiting dangerous levels of public and private debt five years earlier. Had that earlier near crisis not been effectively dealt with by them they too would likely have been caught up in the world crisis 0f 2008.

I can accept that. Still, it means that Canada had a near-crisis, learned from it, and reformed its system. The US, by contrast, had at least a near-crisis (the savings-and-loan mess of the late 1980s), but continued to deregulate anyway---under both Republican and Democratic presidents. To be sure, Canadian folly may well make a comeback in the long run. But in the long run we're all dead. Meanwhile, we can learn and reform in the short run.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:25 pm
@Thomas,
It wasn't your Utilitarianism that made me say that, but that you hold it to be unethical to cause harm even if it is not something that can be avoided (such as in your car scenario). To me that is disregarding intent to the point where it's negligible, but yes I had overstated it to say you neglect it entirely.
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 01:32 pm
@TheLeapist,
TheLeapist wrote:


SIDE NOTE: How to you quote someone's post with that box around it?

Either hit the quote button next to the person's Thumbs up/down number and under his screenname. Or type hand type into your reply box:
Code:[quote]Copy and paste text you want to quote here...[/quote]
0 Replies
 
 

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