@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
Obama won the Electoral College vote over McCain by 365-173.
I found 5 states which Obama carried by about 5% or less in the popular vote, winning their electoral votes:
Florida (27 electoral votes) {Obama won by 2.5%}
Indiana (11) {.9%}
North Carolina (15) {.4%}
Ohio (20) {4%}
Virginia (13) {6.3%} ---okay, it's my home state---
If the Repubs were to win those states there would be a shift of 86 electoral votes, leaving Obama at 279-259.
If anyone is interested in electoral vote numbers, I need to make an adjustment to what I wrote yesterday.
Obama won the Electoral College vote by a comfortable margin of 365-173 in 2008. But we in the U.S. had the census which resulted in some states growing while others lost population. Due to that, if Obama and a Repub candidate won or lost the same states as they did in 2008, the margin would be 359-179. Dem states like PA, OH, MI lost population like FL, TX gained population and electoral votes.
Making adjustments to the post I made yesterday, the Repubs would pick up another 4 electoral votes due to the value of any state that flips beyond what I suggested above.
Bottom line: The race is tied.