The 2012 Presidential Election Discussion Thread

@JTT,

JTT wrote:

it's time for another Republican president.

Yes it is.

1 Reply

@H2O MAN,

agreed, we're not getting the laughs out of the current clown, time to up stakes and make way for the next circus

1 Reply

@djjd62,

djjd62 wrote:

agreed

America can't survive another term of extreme radical liberal progressive democrat rule.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

April 14th. Chicago. It's a formality, of course, tied to - as with other candidates - when they can turn their fundraisers loose.

As if his non commital leadership was not evidence enough that he was planning on running... Wouldn't it be cool if some democrate had the nerve to stand up, call a spade a spade, and damn the republicans to hell and back??? No guts, no glory; and I hope, no next term as a president... The is such a thing as leading from the center, but there is no center... You better dance with the girl you come with, or there is going to be some one pissed and likely a fight.. Who is there who is left to re-elect Obama???

1 Reply

@Fido,

Fido, I think I agree with you

Quote:

As if his non commital leadership was not evidence enough that he was planning on running... Wouldn't it be cool if some democrate had the nerve to stand up, call a spade a spade, and damn the republicans to hell and back???

1 Reply

I don't see how anyone can vote for Obama again. Gitmo is still open. Unemployment is too high. Home prices in free fall and no one can get a loan. Now he's attacking a muslim nation that was no direct threat.

Obama is a liar. You lefties got fooled once again.

2 Replies

@Renaldo Dubois,

RD, You have no common sense; Obama has been in office for a little over two years after GW Bush destroyed our land the world economy in eight years in office; you haven't heard of the Great Recession? Obama is not a miracle worker, but according to most expert economists, he has diminished the economic crisis created by GW Bush.

Your ability to understand economic cycles is nil; quit making a fool out of yourself on these boards.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

Obama is not a miracle worker

Agree completely.

People seem to be forgetting the enormous problems Obama inherited--which included two wars beside the Great Recession. Some economists estimate it will take another 10 years to recover the number of jobs that were lost when the economy tanked--this is not a situation that can be remedied with any quick fixes. And the housing market is not uniformly bad, it has rebounded and stabilized in many parts of the country, and in other areas it has not yet hit bottom. Again, this will require more time and some continued improvement in the employment numbers. The overall economy, and the stock market, is showing good, steady signs of improvement.

But, apart from what he inherited, Obama has been hit with one crisis after another, like the BP oil spill, which additionally strain the economy, and he has had to contend with a Republican party dedicated to blocking his every move and committed more to seeing him fail than addressing the problems the country faces. The Republicans don't propose, they simply oppose, possibly because they suffer from a dearth of leadership right now and their present array of potential presidential candidates does nothing to correct that impression or to inspire much confidence.

The current domestic turmoil reverberating through the Middle East is also presenting rather unique foreign policy challenges, and whether Obama is choosing the best options will only be evident when the dust settles and we know what governments have emerged, or hung on, and who we will be dealing with. But the move toward more democratic governments in that part of the world, which Obama has supported, is something we can applaud.

Am I completely satisfied with Obama's job performance? No. In many ways I wish he was more forceful, that his actions were bolder and less cautious. But I'm certainly not dissatisfied with him, and I have no qualms about voting him a second term. Given the mess he walked into on inauguration day, I think he's doing more than a decent job.

0 Replies

Good evening. I was asked over on the Obama o8 thread what I thought of Obama's chances of being reelected "at this point in time."
I started a response but then we ended up with this new thread specifically on 2012.
For anyone who cares, here is my initial analysis (while acknowledging that while I try to report neutrally I am a Dem).
In 2008, Obama won the popular vote nationally with 66.9M votes (53%) vs 58.3M (46%) for McCain.
Significantly, Obama won the Electoral College vote over McCain by 365-173.
I found 5 states which Obama carried by about 5% or less in the popular vote, winning their electoral votes:
Florida (27 electoral votes) {Obama won by 2.5%}
Indiana (11) {.9%}
North Carolina (15) {.4%}
Ohio (20) {4%}
Virginia (13) {6.3%} ---okay, it's my home state---

If the Repubs were to win those states there would be a shift of 86 electoral votes, leaving Obama at 279-259.
I would, of course, like to hear from folks in those states about the mood there. And, of course, is there a state where there a major shift in sentiment.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Ohio... very similar to Wisconsin just now, in Columbus at any rate. Kasich is proving himself to be extremely unpopular. He's a Republican who was just elected (2010). If the presidential/2012 election were held now, I don't think Republicans would do so well, depending of course on who the candidate was.

But in terms of movement, I'd say that Ohio is less Republican now than it was in 2008.

Here is a recent article/ poll (Quinnipiac) about Kasich's popularity (or lack thereof):

Quote:

So two months later after SB 5 and the emerging budget fight, how’s Kasich doing?

Worse, much worse. Kasich’s approval rating stayed at 30%, but his disapproval rating skyrocketed to 46%. Among Republicans, Kasich saw his largest, if practically only, growth in his approval rating. With GOP voters, Kasich’s approval rating improved by 8 points, but his disapproval rating among Republicans grew by twelve. Kasich’s disapproval rating among Republicans tripled from January, outpacing any growth he had in their approval rating.

Kasich’s disapproval rating among Democrats has nearly double since January, going from 35% to 67%. Just as all other polling has shown, Independents have soured on Kasich. His approval rating has dropped six points in two months while his disapproval rating skyrocketed from 18% to 49%. Even Kasich’s approval ratings among white, born-again evangelicals has collapsed going from 42%-12% to 34%-37%. And are you ready for the SB 5 effect: Kasich’s approval/disapproval rating among union households went from 23%-27% to 19% to 58%.

Kasich’s disapproval rating has doubled among union households and more than tripled among white, born-again evangelicals.

[....]

The number of Ohioans who are “very dissatisfied” with how things, in general, are going in Ohio hit a Quinnipiac record at 36%. 70% of Ohioans are either somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with what is occurring in Ohio. This is substantially worse [than the] “off track” numbers that doomed Strickland’s re-election campaign.

http://www.plunderbund.com/2011/03/23/quinnipiac-kasichs-disapproval-skyrockets-as-his-approval-rating-stalled/

Here's the actual poll:

www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh03232011.doc

1 Reply

@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

But in terms of movement, I'd say that Ohio is less Republican now than it was in 2008.

Tried to find something supporting that impression, this sort of does:

Quote:

A poll last week by the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll had the new Republican governor, John Kasich, at 40 percent approval rating - the lowest initial rating for a new governor in 28 years.

A poll released last week by a North Carolina-based polling firm, Public Policy Polling, asked Ohioans what they would do if they could have a do-over; they would re-elect Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland over Kasich by a 15 percentage point margin.

The same poll has President Obama leading four potential GOP presidential candidates - Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich by between six and 16 percentage points.

[...]

In Ohio, Johnson said, the Republicans have, with Senate Bill 5, fired up organized labor - an important part of the Democratic base - and gained public sympathy for unions, particularly those which represent police officers, firefighters and teachers.

"The Republicans have been able to in a few months what the Democratic Party hasn't been able to do in 30 years - galvanize the labor movement,'' Johnson said. "I don't think that is going away."

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110320/NEWS0108/103210301/Ohio-Democrats-feeling-revived

That's now, though. We'll see where things go.

1 Reply

@sozobe,

PPP is considered a Dem leaning poll (kind of like Rasmussen is regarded as a Repub one).
There were 3 states that McCain carried by a relatively small margin:
Georgia (McCain won by 5.2%) {15 electoral votes}
Missouri (.1%) {11}
Montana (2.5%) {3}

0 Replies

I hang out on a very small site talking about politics. A buddy there wrote an interesting little essay about young voters. She stated, and I agree, that in 2007, those in the 18-24 age voted overwhelmingly for Obama and actively campaigned for him.
Where are they now, as 22-28 year olds? Are they still as idealistic, so full of optimism now that they have entered the real world during the Great Recession? Will they be as energized in 2011 as they were in 2007?
And what of the newly hatched voters since 2007; the 18-21 year olds? Will they find their voice to participate in the electoral process?
She is skeptical and throws that up as a potential danger for Obama.

3 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Quote:

Where are they now, as 22-28 year olds?

Moreover, considering that they appear to be aging faster than the population in general, where will they be 20, 30 or 40 years from now? Smile

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

I dunno, I always thought that "idealistic, full of optimism" thing was a bit of a canard. The young people I worked with here in Ohio on Obama's campaign were a pretty pragmatic bunch, and the ones I got to know from elsewhere were about the same. They were very pro-Obama, but they were also very anti-Bush and anti-McCain. They generally did NOT have the stars in their eyes that the media seemed to enjoy ascribing to them.

I think the energy will depend in large part on who the Republican opponent is and how much of a chance that opponent has.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Hey, this is related to me! I'll chime in with anecdotes.

realjohnboy wrote:

Where are they now, as 22-28 year olds?

Although I live in DC now (sorry RJB, I moved out of Falls Church. You're the VA A2Ker now), the majority of my Facebook friends are still from Missouri. Missouri is a swing state that tends to lean conservative. I'd gage that amongst my friends I'm to the left. Most of my friends fall into a more moderate conservative area with some outliers on either end.

Most are now out of college and in the workforce. A few are unemployed.

I'll reply to my best ability to share the sentiments I've observed over the last two years.

realjohnboy wrote:

Are they still as idealistic, so full of optimism now that they have entered the real world during the Great Recession?

The one who voted for Obama are less idealistic, but I think it has less to do with entering the real world, and more to do with Obama not being the game changer some thought he would be. I'd say that those who voted from him are still optimistic though. I don't hear the woes of ruin from this crowd.

Those who voted for McCain or other candidates have gained a new idealistic outlook. This is the Tea Party kind of sentiment. The new ideal is very heavy on the libertarian narrative. I think this in general is the new exciting brand of conservatism that captivates younger conservatives. This group I think inversely is not optimistic at all. It seems all dread and despair for what comes next.

In a more general sense, I don't think that Obama is going to pick up voters from this block who had previously voted for McCain. From this age group, I think you'll see Obama gets the same voters, and any raise in this age bracket of voters will go to conservative candidates if the person sells it right.

realjohnboy wrote:

Will they be as energized in 2011 as they were in 2007?

It's hard to say. I think the ball was always going to be in the GOP's court on this. I think to many Obama voters, what is going to get them back in the voting booth for Obama is some demonstration by the GOP of what is in store. This may be already happening with current events like WI unions etc.

For the younger conservatives, I think they aren't as much energized as they are passionate. That could turn into productive energy for the GOP if the right candidate comes along, but as of now, I think that passion is focused in a way that doesn't help the GOP. I think the fervency amongst young conservatives is that government is bad. GOP elites have a challenge to get them to buy in.

realjohnboy wrote:

And what of the newly hatched voters since 2007; the 18-21 year olds?

This is my sister's generation. I think this group is more liberal than my peers. That doesn't guarantee Obama gets to count them. They will need a road map.

realjohnboy wrote:

Will they find their voice to participate in the electoral process?

I think so, but it won't be (can't be) the same way it was in 2008. A clear vision of where we are headed needs to be laid out by both Obama, and the GOP in terms of which GOP they are.

realjohnboy wrote:

She is skeptical and throws that up as a potential danger for Obama.

Sure. Obama is not a sure thing. I still think he has it as of right now. People are shaky with him, but even my conservative friends won't come to the defense of the GOP.

A
R
T

1 Reply

@failures art,

Quote:

Those who voted for McCain or other candidates have gained a new idealistic outlook. This is the Tea Party kind of sentiment.

Well, that brand of idealism appears to be souring.

Quote:

Poll: Tea Party popularity declining
March 20, 2011
A new CNN poll finds almost half of Americans have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement.
--47 percent of Americans see the tea party unfavorably
--32 percent regard the movement favorably

"That makes the tea party about as unpopular as the Democratic and Republican parties," notes CNN.

Polling guru Nate Silver says the tea party has been growing less popular over the past year while it's favorability ratings have stayed in the low 30s. Says Silver:

The trend looks reasonably clear: unfavorable views are on the rise... It's not clear, on the other hand, that favorable views are decreasing; they've never been much higher than the low 30s, and that's roughly where they remain today. Instead, this is almost certainly a case of Americans who had ambivalent views about the Tea Party before now coming to a more negative impression.
http://www.examiner.com/populist-in-national/poll-tea-party-popularity-declining

It's interesting to note that the Tea Party's unfavorable rating showed the strongest increase among those Americans earning less than $50,000 per year.

So, having seen some of these Tea Party candidates actually assume office, many voters don't seem to like the results. In addition, the Tea Party/populist/conservative element is somewhat in conflict with the traditional Republican party, and it is currently affecting Boehner's ability to strike a compromise budget deal with Democrats. Tea Party activists have already made noises about mounting primary challenges to Boehner in the next election if he veers away from the budget cuts they seek. Meanwhile, if the budget is not agreed to by April 8th, the federal government will shut down. Given voters' dissatisfaction with both political parties, and with congress, a shutdown might well cause increased dissatisfaction, mainly with the Republicans, for promoting gridlock through failure to compromise.

And, Obama's approval rating among young voters is up...

Quote:

Poll: Obama gains young voter favor
By: Jennifer Epstein
March 31, 2011

Even as President Barack Obama’s overall approval rating tumbled in recent weeks, his ratings among young adults – especially those at four-year colleges – have shifted upward, a new poll suggests.

In a national survey of Americans 18 to 29 conducted by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, 55 percent said they approve of the president’s job performance, up 6 percentage points since October. And among college students, Obama does even better, with a 60 percent approval rating, up 9 points from the fall.

When asked whether they plan to vote for Obama in 2012, though, they’re less sure. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed (and 43 percent of college students) say they will, while 25 percent (and 30 percent among college students) say they will vote for his Republican opponent. The rest are unsure and, perhaps, looking to be swayed.

“As the 2012 presidential primary and caucus season draws closer, young people will again have the opportunity to greatly impact the race for the White House,” the institute’s director, Trey Grayson, said in a statement. “Political campaigns which incorporate an effective youth outreach strategy will have a strong advantage in the 2012 cycle.”

The improvement in the ratings signals a marked shift from the disaffection coming from young voters who think Obama has failed to follow through on his idealistic campaign promises.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52301.html

I can't see where Obama's re-election faces serious impediments now, particular in the absence of a strong opponent to challenge him. The economy is improving, and I don't think the President is unduly vulnerable in that area. On foreign policy/national interest decisions, like our current involvement in Libya, he might be considerably more vulnerable depending on how long the involvement continues, what the final cost is, and what outcome in Libya results from our actions. We don't know those things yet. But, in the interim, it's giving the Republicans some red meat to gnaw on because they can exploit the ambiguities in the situation to cast more doubt on Obama's leadership ability.

1 Reply

@firefly,

I believe many of us saw the conflict between the republican party faithfuls and the tea party supporters long before now. Palin started out as the spokesperson for the tea party from the beginning, but we've not heard from her for many a moon. If there's no tea party message from the head person, how can the tea party remain solvent?

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Oh, Palin has continued to throw her two cents in, most recently about Libya. The media just isn't covering her every utterance as they once did. Michele Bachmann, another Tea Party darling, appears to be mapping out a run for the presidency, so that's helping to flex their muscles. And the Tea Party has a planned rally on the National Mall today. So, they are alive and kicking, despite their growing unfavorable ratings. But those unfavorable ratings help to deflate their political clout and their ability to pick winning candidates.
And I really feel that if the Tea Party pushes the Republicans to reject a budget compromise, and a government shutdown results, they are going to help sink the chances of any Republican candidate fot the presidency. I just don't see the general public as being in the mood for those sort of tactics and that type of grand-standing.

0 Replies

@H2O MAN,

H2O MAN wrote:

Fido, I think I agree with you

Quote:
As if his non commital leadership was not evidence enough that he was planning on running... Wouldn't it be cool if some democrate had the nerve to stand up, call a spade a spade, and damn the republicans to hell and back???

As if the world were not already frightening enough..

1 Reply

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