The 2012 Presidential Election Discussion Thread

@georgeob1,

Quote:

My guess is that the tide flowing against the Democrats is too pervasive and too fundamental for the president to survive, notwithstanding his appeal in some quarters and his symbolic status as a force for change. There is also an odor of incompetence and superficiality surrounding his administration that I believe will also continue and play a role in the outcome.

Perhaps this would be true if your side was fielding a candidate who had what it took to defeat the man, but at this point it's pretty clear that they are not. It's the B-team running for your crew this year; your A-listers wanted no part of running against Obama. And for good reason; he's a good candidate!

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I think voters will consider the alternative and vote inb the majority for the Rebublican nominee. While Obama may well be a skillful and effective candidate in some quarters, his persistent themes of "it's not my fault" and class warfare have grown a bit titesome and repetitive for many. Worse for him (and us) his track record so far isn't much to brag about either. Indeed enthusiasm among his dedicated supporters appears to be waning.

Are you sticking to your earlier expressed confidence in a Democrat controlled Senate next year? That one isn't looking very good either.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

I think voters will consider the alternative and vote inb the majority for the Rebublican nominee.

I don't think they will. Mitt Romney - who is going to be your nominee - couldn't be a worse choice for this point in history, for 2 reasons:

1, he absolutely IS the embodiment of the 1%. This will be skillfully and repeatedly used against him, and he has no defense against these charges whatsoever. Just wait until the conversation turns to his refusal to release his tax returns - he can't let people know that he pays a much lower rate on his millions of dollars of yearly income than they do on their couple dozen thousand.

2, your party despises the man. I'm sure I don't have to tell you that he is no Conservative. The Conservative base will not work hard or donate money to support the man. This is not generally a sign of success.

Quote:

While Obama may well be a skillful and effective candidate in some quarters, his persistent themes of "it's not my fault" and class warfare have grown a bit titesome and repetitive for many.

Only for you and other Conservatives. It's quite popular with the majority of the public, who wants to do the things he talks about. Polling is clear on this.

Quote:

Worse for him (and us) his track record so far isn't much to brag about either.

He's done alright in the face of GOP obstructionism. I reckon we will hear quite a bit about that in the upcoming election, and it will be effective, because - once again - it's absolutely true. You don't seem to be able to internalize the fact that approval ratings for the GOP have plummeted since they took over the House, but it is a fact that they have. People only put up with childish intransigence for so long before rejecting it.

Quote:

Are you sticking to your earlier expressed confidence in a Democrat controlled Senate next year? That one isn't looking very good either.

I'm not really up to speed on what will happen with the Senate, but I don't think the prospects for the Dems are particularly dim at this point. They have a small head start, in that Brown is almost certain to lose to Warren, making flipping the Senate that much more difficult. I would remind you that having Romney on the top of your ticket isn't going to drive the voters you need out to the polls and will strongly effect races down the ticket.

The turnout models for this election are likely to resemble 2008 far more so than 2010, in which many Dems stayed home. Keep that in mind when thinking of how various races will be decided later this year.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

We shall see what unfolds in November. For now, the similarities with 1979 are very great, and Obama appears (to me) likely to go the way of Jimmy Carter (another closet authoritarian, equally also sure he alone knew what was good for the rest of us.).

While Romney is surely no fire brand conservative, he does have demonstrated real world experience and competence. I think many Americans have had their fill of politicians who put preconceived doctrines of social welfare ahead of the many conflicting realities confronting us. We could use a little enlightened pragmatism right now.

I think you should examine the details of the contested races ahead in the Senate more carefully than you have done so far. The oddsmakers don't give the Democrats much chance at all.

1 Reply

I posted Kevin Dowd's year-end column in the Republican candidate thread earlier today.

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Mr. Dowd is the brother of Maureen Dowd, The New York Times’ Pulitzer Prize winning columnist whom conservatives love to hate. Once a year, Maureen bequeaths her editorial real estate to Kevin who delivers enough rocked-ribbed conservatism in one year-end column to counterbalance MoDo’s liberalism through St. Patrick’s Day.

Politico's provided Joe Scarborough's summary of the column

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70947.html

Quote:

1. DO NOT INTERFERE WITH YOUR OPPONENT WHEN HE IS ENGAGED IN THE ACT OF DESTROYING HIMSELF.

Obama should have ended the year in miserable shape. His stimulus programs have failed, his populist rants are shaking the confidence of job creators, he threw his own debt commission under the bus, and it is now clear that the politician elected to revive the economy in 2008 has no clue what creates jobs in a free market. Still, the president ended the year with a strong uptick in his approval ratings.

That’s because Republicans spent the past year defining dumb down.

Kevin Dowd wondered which clown in the GOP thought it strategically advantageous to schedule 167 presidential debates throughout the year. These televised spectacles — neatly summed up in the moment in which Rick Perry forgot his own name — accomplished little other than damaging the Republican brand and distracting voters from Obama’s dismal record.

I would guess the same clown who staged the GOP debates spent his December framing Republicans as opponents of middle-class tax cuts.

1 Reply

@ehBeth,

I suspect the Dowd family gene pool was largely spent a couple of generations ago.

The debates were a creation of the public media that for various reasons were (often, but not always) found advantageous to various candidates. It weas a messy process indeed, but it did fairly quickly deflate the loonie fringe of candidates as well as some of the simplistic solutions some of them advocated. Several of these folks were (and offered) merely right wing versions of doctinaire left wing politics so damaging to the country right now. Good riddance. The proces has aided the unity of the Republicans a great deal, and done so during a period in which most of the self-appointed cognoscenti forecast continued disunity.

We are now left with a couple of surviving adults (and a few stragglers, still waiting to be eliminarted). Several overheated balloons have been deflated and the prospect of common ground & unity among the majority of Americans who want to see an end to the political follies we have witnesses for the past 3 + years is much increased.

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@georgeob1,

The conservative (Kevin Dowd etc) v Republican establishment (georgeob1 etc) divergence is entertaining to watch from this perspective.

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@ehBeth,

Perhaps so, but I suspect my view more closely represents the central tendencies of most voters.

I find the monotone similatity of the Stepford lefties here equally bemusing.

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I am tied up with watching the Iowa caucus tomorrow. Any projections on how that will turn out from you all?
As for the Senate races, I might get to that tomorrow. Would you agree that who controls the majority is largely symbolic? In the past few years, any legislation beyond the naming of a post office involves cloture after a filibuster.
61 votes.

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@georgeob1,

Of course you do (in both cases). I expect nothing else.

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@realjohnboy,

The pundits (love the pundits) say that what matters most is who comes in third.

It will be interesting to follow.

I hadn't really focussed on the Republican caucus being a secret ballot, while the Democrat was not. Probably knew it once, but forgot. I'm curious if that will have any impact on the outcome.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

We shall see what unfolds in November. For now, the similarities with 1979 are very great, and Obama appears (to me) likely to go the way of Jimmy Carter (another closet authoritarian, equally also sure he alone knew what was good for the rest of us.).

And Romney is your Reagan? Pull the other one!

Quote:

While Romney is surely no fire brand conservative, he does have demonstrated real world experience and competence.

What experience? He ran Bain for a long time and specialized in reaping huge rewards while chopping companies up and shipping jobs overseas. This was very skillfully used against Romney in 94 by Kennedy and it will be again this cycle. He has no experience creating anything at all - except profits off of the layoffs of American workers. You think this is something worth pointing to?

Quote:

I think many Americans have had their fill of politicians who put preconceived doctrines of social welfare ahead of the many conflicting realities confronting us. We could use a little enlightened pragmatism right now.

I don't know why you think this is a widely-shared view, polling is clear that it is not.

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I think you should examine the details of the contested races ahead in the Senate more carefully than you have done so far. The oddsmakers don't give the Democrats much cance at all.

Oh, you never know. I haven't seen much polling which actually shows sizeable leads by opponents of the incumbent Dem senators. I think it's entirely likely that we will see the GOP capture the Senate by a seat or two, but I wouldn't bet the bank on that happening yet - a Romney candidacy will depress turnout on your side significantly.

I had Christmas dinner with a few dozen Republicans this year(I'm the only Dem in my family) and they absolutely. hate. Romney. They hated him. The consensus amongst this group of GOP members was that Obama would handily defeat him, because nobody they know really supports the guy - he's just the Least Worst option on your side. My mom said, 'how could we attack Kerry as a flip-flopper, and turn around and support Romney?' How, indeed. Good luck with that.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

- a Romney candidacy will depress turnout on your side significantly.

turnout is really what this is all about, isn't it.

I'd been hearing/reading a lot of concern that the Democrat youth/women wouldn't be turning out for Obama next time round.

Then the question turned to turnout on the Republican side.

Looks like everyone's going to be looking at the independents who are looking for someone to vote for.

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The weather in Iowa tomorrow looks decent by their standards. Supposedly that benefits Romney while worse weather favors Paul.
I am sticking with an outcome of (1) Paul; (2) Romney; (3) Santorum; (4) Perry;
(5) Gingrich and (6) Bachmann.

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@ehBeth,

I think the current Administration can be counted on to ensure a very strong Republican turnout ... with any of the prospective candidates.

I am also bemused by the outrage over "flip floppers". The exercise of power in the real wortld requires a flexible, pragmatic approach to most thorny problems. Abraham Lincoln had no problem suspending habeus corpus during a civil war fought to ensure individual liberty. One is reminded of Ralph Waldo Emerson's statement about consistency ....

"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines."

John Kerry was reviled because he was a self-promoting liar who betrayed his comrades in the Navy and clawed his way up the political heap as a pseudo imitation John Kennedy. He is simply a ridiculous comic figure, taken seriously only by himself.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

I think the current Administration can be counted on to ensure a very strong Republican turnout ...

The Republicans will show up, but will the conservatives - and will the conservatives show up for the same candidate as the Republicans?

American politics. A great show to watch.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

John Kerry was reviled because he was a self-promoting liar who betrayed his comrades in the Navy and clawed his way up the political heap as a pseudo imitation John Kennedy. He is simply a ridiculous comic figure, taken seriously only by himself.

That is so much horseshit, I'm embarrased for you for having posted it.

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@Lustig Andrei,

That's the most bogus statement I have ever read from georgeob 1

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@Lustig Andrei,

Lustig Andrei wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
John Kerry was reviled because he was a self-promoting liar who betrayed his comrades in the Navy and clawed his way up the political heap as a pseudo imitation John Kennedy. He is simply a ridiculous comic figure, taken seriously only by himself.

That is so much horseshit, I'm embarrased for you for having posted it.

I'm confident you will recover.

Actually it is quite true.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

I am tied up with watching the Iowa caucus tomorrow. Any projections on how that will turn out from you all?
As for the Senate races, I might get to that tomorrow. Would you agree that who controls the majority is largely symbolic? In the past few years, any legislation beyond the naming of a post office involves cloture after a filibuster.
61 votes.

I don't think the Iowa caucus results will mean much as long as Romney comes in near the top.

Certainly a cloture (and veto) proof majority in the Senate is a significant advantage in passing legislation - as you have noted. However, control of the Senate is itself a very significant element of political power, as Harry Reid has repeatedly demonstrated over the past three years. Senate committee chairmanship goes with it as well as the attendant ability to set the agenda for investigating committees and oversight actions involving departments of government. The Senate majority leader sets the calendar agenda for the Senate, determining if and when various proposals come up for vote. These are important elements of power.

0 Replies

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