North Korea: What to do?

Name 5 countries (governments, really) with any discernible clout in the world that don't fit that description. Can you say that NK is innocent of those charges?

Well, I've had enough JTT time for a while.

The minister is said to have revealed that a new, younger generation of Chinese leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally, and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula.

Mr Chun confidently had predicted that North Korea "had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of Kim Jong-il", despite his efforts to obtain Chinese help and to secure the succession for his son, Ms Stephens wrote.

"Describing a generational difference in Chinese attitudes toward North Korea, Chun claimed [name redacted] believed Korea should be unified under ROK [Republic of Korea] control," she added.

Mr Chun said the Chinese officials "were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state - a view that since North Korea's 2006 nuclear test had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC [People's Republic of China] leaders."

The minister is said to have revealed that a new, younger generation of Chinese leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally, and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula.

Back to connecting the WikiLeaks thing to the discussion: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11871641

Looks like China is fed up with NK, after all.

Quote:

The minister is said to have revealed that a new, younger generation of Chinese leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally, and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula.

Mr Chun confidently had predicted that North Korea "had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of Kim Jong-il", despite his efforts to obtain Chinese help and to secure the succession for his son, Ms Stephens wrote.

"Describing a generational difference in Chinese attitudes toward North Korea, Chun claimed [name redacted] believed Korea should be unified under ROK [Republic of Korea] control," she added.

Mr Chun said the Chinese officials "were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state - a view that since North Korea's 2006 nuclear test had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC [People's Republic of China] leaders."

I imagine that practically every gov't pretends to care just as the US does.

I'm sure China will try to milk their relationship with the North for political gains. That's what diplomats get paid to do. But since it's pretty clear that they already have very limited influence on the North's most significant behavior, it's a pretty weak card these days, it seems. Maybe not worth whatever they lose by being associated with NK as an ally. The article said that the focus is now more on economics than having a buffer for their northeastern border, and NK ain't got much to offer in terms of trade compared to SK, Japan and the US.

If it were your choice, what woud u like America to DO about North Korea ?

And I think the war would be pretty quick, if the US and SK planned it carefully in advance.

While some have referred to the conflict as a civil war, there were many other factors at play.[32] The Korean War was also the first armed confrontation of the Cold War and set the standard for many later conflicts. It created the idea of a proxy war, where the two superpowers would fight in another country, forcing the people in that nation to suffer the bulk of the destruction and death involved in a war between such large nations. The superpowers avoided descending into an all-out war with one another, as well as the mutual use of nuclear weapons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea

IOW, diplomacy has been a drastic failure.
Now we're on the verge of seeing a NK with nuclear missiles, maybe even ICBMs.

I'm not an expert in either military or political strategy, so I'd hope nobody too my suggestions seriously. But after decades of failure in diplomatic approach, what other options are there? Accept a nuclear weaponized, schizophrenic and belligerent North that's perpetually on the verge of internal collapse? An internal collapse that could put those nukes in anybody's hands?

If I were in charge of the US position, I'd do pretty much what they're doing now. Stage massive naval and ground-based military drills and try to entice the North to start firing. Call their bluff, essentially. I think a quick war now is a better option than many more decades of what's been happening, what with the non-stop starvation, torturing, public executions and oppression that the NK people have had to endure.

South Korea spy chief says more attacks likely
SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea is highly likely to attack South Korea again, the South's spy chief said on Wednesday, as a flotilla of American warships led by an aircraft carrier left South Korean waters after a deadly attack.

"There is a high possibility that the North will make an additional attack," Won Sei-hoon, director of the National Intelligence Service, told a parliamentary committee meeting.

The South's Defense Minister, Kim Tae-young, has also warned there was an "ample possibility" the North might stage another provocation once a U.S.-South Korea exercise ended on Wednesday.

Won said wire-taps in August indicated Pyongyang was preparing for an attack off the west coast designed to smooth the way for Kim Jong-il's son to take over as leader, Yonhap news agency reported.

"In August this year, we confirmed North Korea's plan to attack five islands in the West Sea through wiretapping," he said. "We didn't expect the (North's) shelling on civilians, as North Korea has often made threatening remarks.

Last week, North Korea fired a barrage of artillery rounds at Yeonpyeong island in the first such attack on civilians on South Korean soil since the end of the 1950-53 Korean war. Two civilians were among the four killed.

Analysts say the attack was an attempt to force the resumption of international negotiations that could bring it aid, or could be seen as an attempt to boost the militaristic credentials of the country's leader-in-waiting, Kim Jong-un.

Won said the attack on Yeonpyeong island came as "internal complaints are growing about the North's succession for a third generation (of Kim family rule), and its economic situation is worsening."

Kim Jong-un is the youngest son of ailing leader Kim Jong-il.

Seoul plans live-fire drill next week
Allies brace for N. Korean provocation after 4-day exercise

By Jung Sung-ki

Following the end of the four-day “high-intensity” joint naval exercise by the United States and South Korea in the West Sea, Wednesday, allied forces are bracing for further provocative acts by North Korea.

The concern comes as South Korea’s marines are considering holding a live-fire exercise next week. The Nov. 23 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island occurred after the South held such a drill near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto sea border in the West Sea.

After the joint exercise, the South Korean military will remain on the highest alert, according to the JCS.

Col. Kim Young-cheol at the JCS operations bureau told reporters that military authorities of the South and United States were in consultations to hold more joint naval drills in waters west of the Korean Peninsula, in an effort to deter Pyongyang’s provocative actions.

“We have been in consultations with the U.S. to carry out several joint military drills to deal with provocation by the enemy later this month or early next year,” Kim said. “The timing and participating assets have yet to be decided.”

The military has deployed six more K-9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, and other advanced precision-guided artillery and missile systems to Yeonpyeong.

The 130mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) were also placed on the island, located just 12 kilometers from the North Korean mainland. The MLRS can fire 36 rounds within 20 seconds and has a range of 36 kilometers.

Moreover, the military has deployed newer artillery-finding radars built by Sweden’s Saab to Yeonpyeong, as well as the Cheonma self-propelled surface-to-air missile systems with an effective range of 10 kilometers.

Won Sei-hoon, chief of the National Intelligence Service, said in a parliamentary session that the North will likely attempt to carry out more “reckless” provocations.

On Tuesday, outgoing Defense Minister Kim Tae-young also said North Korea would probably undertake additional provocations after the joint exercise led by the USS George Washington, a forward-deployed nuclear-powered aircraft carrier from the U.S. 7th Fleet.

“I see a substantial possibility for North Korea’s additional provocation,” Kim said at the Assembly’s Defense Committee. “We’re fully prepared to launch counterattacks should the North make another move.”

Defense analysts anticipate the North will prepare for additional action in a bid to further ratchet up tension on the peninsula, which could also shore up North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s power transfer to his youngest son, Jong-un.

Scenarios for provocations include an additional attack on the five islands of the South near the NLL; an assault landing on Yeonpyeong; artillery shelling of other border areas of the South; the dispatch of special forces to South Korean waters.

Baek Seung-joo, a chief researcher at the state-funded Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, didn’t exclude the possibility of a third nuclear test by the regime.

“With pressure increasing, North Korea could undertake radical provocations, such as the holding of a third atomic test or test-firing of long-range missiles,” Baek said.

Before the Yeonpyeong attack, Pyongyang revealed a new uranium enrichment plant with about 2,000 centrifuges to a visiting U.S. scientist.

Hong Hyun-ik, a researcher at the state-run Sejong Institute, said, “After showing off its nuclear capability, the North is likely to opt for revealing its technology related to a nuclear warhead. In this regard, the possibility of North Korea’s test-launching a long-range missile remains high.”

Some experts raised the possibility that the North would threaten to introduce a hydrogen bomb program.

“North Korea is pushing ahead with efforts to be recognized as a nuclear power with the revelation of the new uranium enrichment plant, so it may focus more on a hydrogen bomb,” said a defense expert who requested anonymity.

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It would be easy for S. K. and us to take the macho approach and respond to N. K. very harshly. However a war would be an utter disaster, with unknown horrors. First, there would be massive (bigtime) casualties in the North and the South. Second, our forces would likely be wiped out early in the war. A little research will tell you this.