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North Korea: What to do?

 
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 06:00 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Do you think that China &/or Russia convinced them to back off?


There was most likely some back-door diplomacy going on. Also, there's no telling what Bill Richardson told them. In the end, though, I'm pretty sure they decided that yesterday wasn't a good day to get the **** blown out of them.
JTT
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 06:04 pm
@realjohnboy,
You know, and yet you just keep on truckin', eh, RJB? Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 06:06 pm
@FBM,
Do you really think they would have had the **** blown out of them if they repeated the prior stunt?

I suppose if South Korea was ever going to get tough with them it would have been now, but I still think it would have been a "measured" response.

In any case, they'll probably just wait until tempers cool and fingers are taken off triggers before trying it again.
JTT
 
  0  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 06:12 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
but I still think it would have been a "measured" response.


And we know what you consider a measured response, Finn.

Quote:
in which as many as 70,000 residents of the southern island of Cheju were ruthlessly murdered during a single year by Rhee's paramilitary forces under the oversight of U.S. officers.

Rhee took office as President on August 15 and the Republic of Korea (ROK) was formally declared. In response, three-and -a-half weeks later (on September 9, 1948), the people of northern Korea grudgingly created their own separate government, the Democratic People's's Republic of Korea (DPRK), with Kim II Sung as its premier.

Korea was now clearly and tragically split in two. Kim Il Sung had survived as a guerrilla fighter against the Japanese occupation in both China and Korea since 1932 when he was twenty years old. He was thirty-three when he returned to Pyongyang in October 1945 to begin the hoped-for era of rebuilding a united Korea free of foreign domination, and three years later, on September 9, 1948, he became North Korea's first premier.

The Rhee/U.S. forces escalated their ruthless campaign of cleansing the south of dissidents, identifying as a suspected "communist" anyone who opposed the Rhee regime, publicly or privately. In reality, most participants or believers in the popular movement in the south were socialists unaffiliated with outside "communist" organizations.

As the repression intensified, however, alliances with popular movements in the north, including communist organizations, increased. The Cheju insurgency was crushed by August 1949, but on the mainland, guerrilla warfare continued in most provinces until 1959-51.

In the eyes of the commander of US military forces in Korea, General Hodge, and new "President" Syngman Rhee, virtually any Korean who had not publicly professed his allegiance to Rhee was considered a "communist" traitor. As a result, massive numbers of farmers, villagers and urban residents were systematically rounded up in rural areas, villages and cities throughout South Korea. Captives were regularly tortured to extract names of others. Thousands were imprisoned and even more thousands forced to dig mass graves before being ordered into them and shot by fellow Koreans, often under the watch of U.S. troops.
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 06:17 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Do you really think they would have had the **** blown out of them if they repeated the prior stunt?

I suppose if South Korea was ever going to get tough with them it would have been now, but I still think it would have been a "measured" response.

In any case, they'll probably just wait until tempers cool and fingers are taken off triggers before trying it again.


I'm quite sure that the South would have responded with more than they received, then let the North decide whether or not they wanted to ratchet it up further. They would, of course, limit their return fire to the area, not go directly for Pyongyang. There was a nationwide bitch-a-thon about the prez's weak response to the first incident. His political career was on the line. He's also the most hard-line anti-North president we've had in the past decade or so.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/21/2010122100266.html
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 07:02 pm
Ah...The North will have a much harder time claiming the waters south of the NLL from now on. Failing to respond to the South's live-fire drill in those waters is tacit admission that those waters are not their territory.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 07:23 pm
@FBM,
I'd be interested to find out what happened in the conversation with Richardson, but I don't expect to. He's a local here. I've mixed feelings on him, based on hearsay, not information I know, and I was very guarded when he was in the running as a presidential candidate. I also seem to remember being appalled at his ability to communicate back in the early presidential debate thing. On the other hand, he seems to have a good record for cooling boiling waters. In NK, he could have been highly snubbed, or had some kind of conversation, or... both.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 07:39 pm
@ossobuco,
ossobuco wrote:

I'd be interested to find out what happened in the conversation with Richardson, but I don't expect to. He's a local here. I've mixed feelings on him, based on hearsay, not information I know, and I was very guarded when he was in the running as a presidential candidate. I also seem to remember being appalled at his ability to communicate back in the early presidential debate thing. On the other hand, he seems to have a good record for cooling boiling waters. In NK, he could have been highly snubbed, or had some kind of conversation, or... both.


I don't have an axe to grind with Richardson. My generally favorable perception of him took a dip during the primaries, but he is by no means my least favorite Democrat.

Nevertheless, I've always been suspect of any special relationship the North Koreans may have. It's hard to imagine which of Richardson's qualifications and characteristics have worked magic on the North Koreans so that they feel they can be honest with him. I don't care what the politics of a special friend might be, I have to think they gain the status more from being malleable than tough.
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:10 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

...I have to think they gain the status more from being malleable than tough.


Definitely. My guess is that he took the time to learn a few Korean customs about how to disagree politely, how to suggest rather than 'tell', how to read between the lines to get the real message, etc. In dialogs with Koreans, one must get used to their 'approach by indirection' and respond in like fashion. Otherwise, you'll be just as irritating to them as the indirect approach would be to most Westerners.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:12 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
I'm not getting the special friend thing - was that used re him and NK? But, anyway, one would wonder what he could have said, if what he said somehow worked.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:14 pm
@FBM,
Ah, cross posting. That makes sense.
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:15 pm
@ossobuco,
ossobuco wrote:

Ah, cross posting. That makes sense.


Eh? What's cross posting?

Edit: Never mind. Google is my friend.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:22 pm
@FBM,
You had already explained an answer to the comment I was posting to Finn.. re what Richardson could have said.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:27 pm
@ossobuco,
ossobuco wrote:

I'm not getting the special friend thing - was that used re him and NK? But, anyway, one would wonder what he could have said, if what he said somehow worked.


I don't know if the North Koreans have ever called Richardson their "special friend," but it has long been believed that he has a special relationship with them. It wasn't a coincidence that he went over there just recently.

It may be as FBM suggests that he has taken the time to learn the required rituals and the North Koreans find him at least familiar.

I'm sure he didn't make the trip because anyone (including him) thought he could pursuade the North Koreans to play nice. I think they asked for him to come so he could play his practiced role in the prelude to the North Koreans making a sharp shift in activities.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:44 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

... He could play his practiced role in the prelude to the North Koreans making a sharp shift in activities.

What is the sharp shift you predict?
Richardson is an interesting character, in my mind. He held a few jobs in government and was elected to a couple of others. He toyed with a campaign for President and was accused of some financial missteps.
He has been, for a number of years, an unofficial representative of the U.S. all over the place. How did he get to that position?
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:45 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Ok, that makes sense too.
(If it is a shift, tap, tap, tap)
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:48 pm
It's not a coincidence, I think, that NK announced through Richardson that they would allow IAEA inspectors back in and that they were willing to go along with the proposal to set up a military communication system with the South and the US. Those were two major shifts that emerged at the height of this crisis.

Edit: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/21/2010122100670.html
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 08:54 pm
@FBM,
I missed that. Very interesting.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 09:10 pm
@realjohnboy,
Maybe it relates to his brief stint as ambassador to the UN? I'm not sure I would take that as much of a qualification, but there does have to be some sort of reason.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2010 09:15 pm
@roger,
roger wrote:

Maybe it relates to his brief stint as ambassador to the UN? I'm not sure I would take that as much of a qualification, but there does have to be some sort of reason.


He had dilomatic credentials, saw an opportunity to make his mark as the guy who can talk to the North Koreans, and the North Koreans see him as useful.
0 Replies
 
 

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