Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
Timber I wonder where you get your information sometimes, and often I cant follow your logic. You just wrote
From the press and media, mostly; news, not opinion, however.
Quote:There is no extra-national supply-and-support network behind the insurgents, [really? none at all? Not one man and his donkey walked from Afghanistan, picking up arms and encouragement in Iran? No help from Syria, Saudi Arabia or Yemen? How about support from Arab communities in the US? or the UK?]
No extra-national support means just that; no state or nation is materially supporting the insurgency, as opposed, say, to Soviet or Chinese support for North Vietnam, North Korea, or Cuba, as has been the case in the past, or more recent US support for Afghanis opposing the Soviets, or Cuban support for Angolan rebels or Liberian support for Sierra Leone rebels. Of course an individual, a network of smugglers, or other clandestine organizations are able to bring in money or some supplies, but its not state sponsored; not even Syria or Iran are providing troops and materiel at governmental level.
Quote:[/i]and their position is becoming ever more critically impared day-by-day. [Do you know this or is there an element of wishful thinking here?]
It is fact, not "wishful thinking", that the number, intensity, and effectiveness of attacks are on the decline over the past couple of weeks, that arrests and killings of insurgents are now in the many hundreds, including numerous high-level figures, that confiscation of cash is in the millions of dollars, and that hundreds of tons of weapons and munitions have been siezed. It is fact, not wishful thinking that the majority of Iraq, apart from the Sunni Triangle and the immediate environs of Baghdad; attacks, while not exclusive to those areas, are largely concentrated there. Deprived of manpower, leadership, finances, and weapons, the insurgents are not doing well at all. The scale of their attacks, and the targets chosen, show this rather clearly. There have been several demonstrations, in Baghdad and elsewhere, against terrorists, and while there is fear of the insurgents, there is no upwelling of support for them, no demonstrations in support of them, and, notably, the rhetoric from the clerics has been relatively subdued of late. There is an insurgency. It is fairly well organized, and it is fanatical, yes. It is not expanding, it is not succeeding, it is doomed.
Quote:Bin Laden's announcement that he is transfering manpower and money from Afghanistan and elsewhere to Iraq...[negates the statement you made above that there is no supply and support network.]
No it does not ... there is bin Laden, his al Queda, there are other minor allied groups and individuals, but there is no state-level support. There is no broad, substantial network of support. There is not even "Man-in-the Arab street" support for the insurgents; there are no demonstrations elsewhere promoting their cuase. The insurgency is isolated, and is being strangled. That is precisely why bin Laden feels it necessary to commit forces and resources to it; it is failing, and his reaction is a desperate, and doomed, response. The object of carrying the fight to the enemy is to draw out the enemy and cause him to confront you on ground and terms of your choosing. Our enemy is cooperating.