@kennethamy,
kennethamy;96886 wrote:Well, we have the lessons of history. Of World War 1, and of World War 2.
Yeah, you can look at wars and go "look, there have been wars in history" and you can look at long periods of peace and say "look, there have been long periods of peace in history". Just because something happened, or happened twice, it doesn't mean it need occur again.
Though I think it's a sad fact of human nature that long periods of peace tend not to be examined. For example, before the English Civil War there hadn't been an organised conflict in the country for 60 years (as far as I recall) - is this period of peace the subject of historical examination in the same way that the following war is? No - people are fascinated by death, not peace.
The main lesson learned at the end of WW2 was not to demand payment from defeated enemies for the losses suffered by the victors. That's what led the situation after WW1 to proliferate into WW2 - humiliating Germany and demanding it pay for the damage. The fact that the western victors helped the losers rebuild their nations after the conflict - at their own expense - has a lot to do with the subsequent lack of bitterness in Europe (and I think Japan too, though I'm quite not so certain).
So just because there had been wars doesn't mean there need have been more. I think Europeans, as a gestalt, were pretty sick of war. I think the extremes of horror that were revealed to have occured in bombed cities and death camps demonstrated that there wasn't much glory to be had in the act of modern warfare, and that European powers, by and large, were no longer interested in conquest and ambit-spreading. Even Spain, despite the fact it remained fascist for some time afterwards, didn't go in for border-expansion.
The same cannot be said for the USSR of the time. Nukes didn't stop it going to war - it just stopped it going to war against westerners.
Besides - we are discussing a peace prize. The inevitability of war might be a sad fact of life, but it shouldn't make the potential acheivement of peace in our time, and those who reach for it, something to sneer at.