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Climate Change Politics

 
 
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 12:31 pm
@Dave Allen,
If you think a youtube effort has just gotta be the truth of the matter.
It's not quite sound logic, to assume that there cannot be conspiracies on both sides.
It's not so logically sound to assume that if one thinks there is conspiracy, one denies GW. Or AGW.
And it's not sound, to assume that if one does not wish to be defrauded by traipsing along with the Suzukians, one does not wish that polluters be reined in.

---------- Post added 12-17-2009 at 02:34 PM ----------

In case the hacked emails haven't been posted yet, here they are

East Anglia Confirmed Emails from the Climate Research Unit - Searchable

Here's Monbiot..he's certainly no climate change denier..check the links

0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 02:51 pm
@kennethamy,
man made climate change is not a myth or a green-left conspiracy to undermine capitalism.

The only conspiracy at work is that launched by the energy industry to spread fear uncertainty and doubt about the matter.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 03:05 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112194 wrote:
man made climate change is not a myth or a green-left conspiracy to undermine capitalism.

The only conspiracy at work is that launched by the energy industry to spread fear uncertainty and doubt about the matter.


I guess I'll just have to take your word for it. But, even if climate change is not a myth, or the uncertainty or doubt about climate change is a conspiracy by the energy industry, it still may be true that climate change is highly exaggerated, and the doubts and uncertainty are justified.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 06:00 pm
@kennethamy,
but the consequences of error are extremely serious. So if there is no climate change, and we radically reduce carbon emissions, the consequence is that we transform the economy to a low-carbon economy. If human-induced climate change is real, and we don't mitigate it, the consequences are hundreds of millions of climate refugees, massive storm events, major disruption to agricultural production, the death of the Great Barrier Reef, rising sea levels...(it's a long list.)

Personally, I am pessimistic. I think climate change is only the first of a series of major global challenges that we will face. It is a dead certainty that energy prices are going to rise massively in the next 20 years, climate change or not. It is also likely that real food shortages will emerge in the developing nations (I mean, much bigger ones than those we arleady have). Malthus was wrong in the short run. I hope he is wrong in the long run also.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 06:26 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112234 wrote:
but the consequences of error are extremely serious. So if there is no climate change, and we radically reduce carbon emissions, the consequence is that we transform the economy to a low-carbon economy. .


Yes. So what we need is a cost/benefit analysis factoring in the probability climate change. Have we any such thing?
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 07:02 pm
@kennethamy,
Stern Review - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Garnaut Climate Change Review

IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

No, I haven't read all of these. I have read abstracts of parts of them, and press coverage about them.

All of them concur that if the projections are accurate (and there is broad consensus that they are) the cost of doing nothing vastly outweighs the cost of mitigation.

I also don't believe that Sir Nicholas Stern (Great Britian), Prof Ross Garnaut (Australia) or the multi-national Intergovernmental Party on Climate Change are alarmists, conspiracy theorists, or left-wing green radicals seeking to undermine capitalism.

The main conclusion of the Stern Report is indeed that "the benefits of strong, early action on climate change considerably outweigh the costs."
0 Replies
 
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 09:40 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112194 wrote:
man made climate change is not a myth or a green-left conspiracy to undermine capitalism.

The only conspiracy at work is that launched by the energy industry to spread fear uncertainty and doubt about the matter.
there are two things under consideration in your post; climate change, and conspiracy.

to affirm that one is real, does not affirm or deny the other, or to confrim that one is not happening , does not affirm or deny that the other is happening.

there is seemingly pretty good evidence of conspiracy at the highest levels.

that does not mean that AGW is not real, or is real, or that the figures and projections are good. or even bad.

To say that there is only one conspiracy, and it's on "the other side", when a conspiracy is being evidenced on "your side" - that seems "a bit much" to be claiming right now.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 09:55 pm
@kennethamy,
Well - I claim it - so there. I think the idea that climate change is 'a belief' and that those who deny climate change are being declared 'heretics' by 'the orthodox' is completely mistaken.

There was a 'climate change skeptics' conference in Copenhagen at the same time as the main conference. There were 45 registered attendees, all of whom were over 50 years of age (and therefore unlikely to be around to witness the consequences). Star attractions were Lord Monckton, for whom the description 'eccentric' is charitable, and Australia's own Professor Ian Plimer, a climate change dissident, whose book Heaven and Earth has been comprehensively debunked by any number of Australian and international climatologists.

As I write this, the conference is in the final throws of drawing up a draft agreement. This involves the governments hundreds of countries, and the last day will be attended by the leaders of almost all those countries, along with thousands of scientists, demonstrators, activists, and journalists.

If this is a conspiracy, who is pulling the strings? They must be awfully clever.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 10:20 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112275 wrote:
Well - I claim it - so there. I think the idea that climate change is 'a belief' and that those who deny climate change are being declared 'heretics' by 'the orthodox' is completely mistaken.

There was a 'climate change skeptics' conference in Copenhagen at the same time as the main conference. There were 45 registered attendees, all of whom were over 50 years of age (and therefore unlikely to be around to witness the consequences). Star attractions were Lord Monckton, for whom the description 'eccentric' is charitable, and Australia's own Professor Ian Plimer, a climate change dissident, whose book Heaven and Earth has been comprehensively debunked by any number of Australian and international climatologists.

As I write this, the conference is in the final throws of drawing up a draft agreement. This involves the governments hundreds of countries, and the last day will be attended by the leaders of almost all those countries, along with thousands of scientists, demonstrators, activists, and journalists.

If this is a conspiracy, who is pulling the strings? They must be awfully clever.
I'm not saying that all people involved are conspirators...is that what you need as evidence ? hehe. Isn't it a conspiracy if only a few high level people are aware or directly doing stuff ?


You know, let's say a Nixon and ten main others. No conspiracy ? OK. You need it proved that the entire Republican party was involved or there was no conspiracy ?
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 10:23 pm
@kennethamy,
OK, who then? Who is pulling the strings? Do they have a hand in melting the polar caps too?
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 10:29 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112279 wrote:
OK, who then? Who is pulling the strings? Do they have a hand in melting the polar caps too?
you seem to suggest that it needs to be proven that someone is orchestrating everything..you're offering a strawman bait is if I would bite.

Quote:
Mike,
I presume congratulations are in order - so congrats etc !
Just sent loads of station data to Scott. Make sure he documents everything better
this time ! And don't leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you never know who is
trawling
them. The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear
there
is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather than
send
to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to respond to enquiries within
20 days? - our does ! The UK works on precedents, so the first request will test it.
We also
have a data protection act, which I will hide behind. Tom Wigley has sent me a worried
email when he heard about it - thought people could ask him for his model code. He
has retired officially from UEA so he can hide behind that.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 10:44 pm
@kennethamy,
the Anglia Emails affair is a media beat up. It is a selective edit of emails pertaining to one research centre, for one collection of data, taken out of context, and interpeted by completely inexpert people on forums etc to show IT IS ALL A BIG LIE.

By the time we wake up tomorrow, the world will be signed up to a global climate change mitigation scheme, for better or for worse. That is the reality of the situation. Most of the rest of it is just hot air.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 11:08 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112283 wrote:
the Anglia Emails affair is a media beat up. It is a selective edit of emails
No, that is not true. we can read the friggin emails .

They say "hacked".
IMO, mid-level wokers more likely those who exposed it. Whistleblowers of a type.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 11:19 pm
@kennethamy,
actually, they were exposed as a result of a very sophisticated hack that originated in Russia.

Now there's a conspiracy for you....
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Dec, 2009 11:33 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112294 wrote:
actually, they were exposed as a result of a very sophisticated hack that originated in Russia.

Now there's a conspiracy for you....
No, there's a conspiracy theory for ya. Taking the face value word of those caught is not the swiftest of thinking.
0 Replies
 
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Dec, 2009 01:00 pm
@kennethamy,
"President Obama was not very proactive. He didn't offer anything more," said delegate Thomas Negints, from Papua New Guinea. He said his country had hoped for "more on emissions, put more money on the table, take the lead."

Especially, money!
memester
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Dec, 2009 01:47 pm
@kennethamy,
'M&M' turn climate science on its head

this article starts to explain a bit about who "the two MMs" are, that Phil Jones is talking to Mike, about. Talking about destroying the data rather than let it be examined.

Quote:
This year, M and M have also raised questions about the accuracy of another hockey-stick-shaped graph, this one by a British climatologist. The Canadians showed that the British graph -- also showing drastically warmer 20th-century temperatures than in the past -- is based on tree ring samples taken from a mere 12 tree cores in a single region of Russia.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Dec, 2009 02:32 pm
@kennethamy,
yeah yeah. I tell you, I wish it was all a scam, bad science, and hysteria. That would be just great. I would love it if the climate scientists were all wrong and the whole thing was a beat up. Just love it. I wish I could believe it. I would sleep better. But it isn't. In ten years time, 20 years, when I die, and so on, it will be a very big issue. It is not going away. Remove head from sand.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Dec, 2009 02:35 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;112448 wrote:
yeah yeah. I tell you, I wish it was all a scam, bad science, and hysteria. That would be just great. I would love it if the climate scientists were all wrong and the whole thing was a beat up. Just love it. I wish I could believe it. I would sleep better. But it isn't. In ten years time, 20 years, when I die, and so on, it will be a very big issue. It is not going away. Remove head from sand.
I think you're making some logical mistakes.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Dec, 2009 03:00 pm
@kennethamy,
There are some situations where further discussion is counterproductive. Accordingly

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