1
   

Climate Change Politics

 
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 09:00 am
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;107811 wrote:
The question is not whether Co2 causes global warming (I thought the OK word, nowadays, is "climate change" so you have less to commit yourself to, and anything that happens is evidence).

I'm not bothered about being coerced into adopting whatever term the US media and/or scientific community currently deems fashionable.

The warming trend is settled - temporary fluctuations are a fact of the matter of climatology - but the trend's in no real doubt.

Quote:
The question is how much global warming is occurring, how dangerous it is, and to what extent it is man-made. So, the chemistry is irrelevant.

The chemistry is fairly irrelevent.

The physics is incredibly important.

But - meh - you obviously know nothing about it and have no desire to learn.

If you had a desire to learn you'd've maybe given that vid I posted a watch - and would be on your way to being able to discuss the matter with some degree of informed PoV.

Quote:
And, now there is an additional issue. Can we even trust the for how much global warming there is, and how dangerous it is.

"The"? "The" what?

Quote:
You do realize that there is also danger in the measures being advocated against Co2 emissions. The danger of joblessness (and at this point) and a return to pre-1900 standards of living. And, for the undeveloped countries, back to the stone age for them. Have you considered that?

The STONE AGE? Laughing
I have given it much more thought than you - I promise you that.

Economic hardship is a possible risk of mismanaging the effort to reduce emissions - though if the UK were to adopt the green energy strategy of China it would apparently lead to something like full employment here. Green energies and lifestyles create more jobs than traditional fossil fuel power institutions support - (by dint of their relative inefficiency if nothing else) - though the transition would cause temporary hardships, as all transitions do.

It could slow progress, but it needn't require us to abandon our current level of technology. An electric car is currently more expensive than a gas guzzler - but it's not more 19th century, is it?

These are, by the way, transitions that will have to be made one day - because fossil fuels are finite resources. Stay in the 20th century whilst China leads us into the 21st - it'd serve you rightly if it wasn't for the potential damage it could do to other countries to just let you go on the way you are.

The possible risk of failing to manage effect of the imbalance making causes in the carbon cycle could lead to swathes of Holland becoming uninhabitable, pretty much all of Bangladesh becoming uninhabitable (a BILLION refugees looking for a new home if that happens), Copenhagen becoming uninhabitable, many Australian cities become largely uninhabitable, London becoming largely uninhabitable ... I could go on.

In case your ability to weigh outcomes is as poor as your science I'll explain it to you - that outcome would be worse for humanity as a gestalt than some higher taxes and employment transitions.

Whichever way you want to look at it - the sacrifices needed to behave in a prudent response to this threat are far far less than the sacrifices needed to deal with even a slight rise in sea level and changing weather patterns.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 09:27 am
@Dave Allen,
Dave Allen;107813 wrote:
I'm not bothered about being coerced into adopting whatever term the US media and/or scientific community currently deems fashionable.

The warming trend is settled - temporary fluctuations are a fact of the matter of climatology - but the trend's in no real doubt.


The chemistry is fairly irrelevent.

The physics is incredibly important.

But - meh - you obviously know nothing about it and have no desire to learn.

If you had a desire to learn you'd've maybe given that vid I posted a watch - and would be on your way to being able to discuss the matter with some degree of informed PoV.


"The"? "The" what?


The STONE AGE? Laughing
I have given it much more thought than you - I promise you that.

Economic hardship is a possible risk of mismanaging the effort to reduce emissions - though if the UK were to adopt the green energy strategy of China it would apparently lead to something like full employment here. Green energies and lifestyles create more jobs than traditional fossil fuel power institutions support - (by dint of their relative inefficiency if nothing else) - though the transition would cause temporary hardships, as all transitions do.

It could slow progress, but it needn't require us to abandon our current level of technology. An electric car is currently more expensive than a gas guzzler - but it's not more 19th century, is it?

These are, by the way, transitions that will have to be made one day - because fossil fuels are finite resources. Stay in the 20th century whilst China leads us into the 21st - it'd serve you rightly if it wasn't for the potential damage it could do to other countries to just let you go on the way you are.

The possible risk of failing to manage effect of the imbalance making causes in the carbon cycle could lead to swathes of Holland becoming uninhabitable, pretty much all of Bangladesh becoming uninhabitable (a BILLION refugees looking for a new home if that happens), Copenhagen becoming uninhabitable, many Australian cities become largely uninhabitable, London becoming largely uninhabitable ... I could go on.

In case your ability to weigh outcomes is as poor as your science I'll explain it to you - that outcome would be worse for humanity as a gestalt than some higher taxes and employment transitions.

Whichever way you want to look at it - the sacrifices needed to behave in a prudent response to this threat are far far less than the sacrifices needed to deal with even a slight rise in sea level and changing weather patterns.


You are too impolite to have a conversation with.
0 Replies
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 09:36 am
@kennethamy,
I'll happily give props to anyone who convinces me that they have the slightest idea what they are on about regarding what I think is a very important issue. But people who clearly:
  • haven't thought about it
  • don't know the science behind the theory
  • aren't interested in learning about the science behind the theory
  • can't be bothered reading the links they post (in apparent support of their own position no less)
  • can't be bothered to properly articulate a defence ("the" what?)
  • resort to wild exaggerations (VICTORIAN LIVING STANDARDS!!! THE STONE AGE!!!)
  • cannot weigh risks without prejudice
  • and won't answer questions...
They maybe get the respect they deserve.

See Bangladesh drown so you don't have to pay higher petrol costs, by all means, you have my blessing. The refugees won't make it to NY will they? Screw them for living on a flood plain man - it would cost YOU money to save them.

I'm reconciled to the fact that there are venal people in the world to whom it's all about money.

You're nothing new.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 10:16 am
@Dave Allen,
Dave Allen;107818 wrote:
I'll happily give props to anyone who convinces me that they have the slightest idea what they are on about regarding what I think is a very important issue. But people who clearly:
  • haven't thought about it
  • don't know the science behind the theory
  • aren't interested in learning about the science behind the theory
  • can't be bothered reading the links they post (in apparent support of their own position no less)
  • can't be bothered to properly articulate a defence ("the" what?)
  • resort to wild exaggerations (VICTORIAN LIVING STANDARDS!!! THE STONE AGE!!!)
  • cannot weigh risks without prejudice
  • and won't answer questions...

They maybe get the respect they deserve.

See Bangladesh drown so you don't have to pay higher petrol costs, by all means, you have my blessing. The refugees won't make it to NY will they? Screw them for living on a flood plain man - it would cost YOU money to save them.

I'm reconciled to the fact that there are venal people in the world to whom it's all about money.

You're nothing new.


"I beg that you think you may be mistaken" Oliver Cromwell (speech to Parliament). You may have heard of him.
0 Replies
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 10:23 am
@kennethamy,
My beliefs are backed up with an understanding of the factors that influence the issue.

And I've provided evidence of them - without any sort of adequate rebuttal apart from "boohoohoo you're being mean".

Your beliefs - backed up by a lot of wind as far as I see.

But I'll try again - what is it about the CO2 molecule that gives rise to a warmer atmosphere, insofar as you understand it?

Step one of the process to having an actual informed debate, in other words.

Go on - you can vindicate yourself here if you like.

EDIT - I see you've edited. My response was to your earlier post of "A True Believer".

Cromwell - mad Puritan wasn't he? Convinced that god wanted him to expunge England of popery? Despoiler of Ireland? Killed a king to set up a strong parliament and then dissolved that parliament so he could act as Lord Protector?

That Cromwell?

Yeah I've heard of him - I don't see why he's an authority I should trust.

And his quote, for what it is, could apply to anyone.

I may be wrong - you may be wrong - but I understand why the consensus on this issue by those who are well informed on climatology is overwhelmingly in favour of taking precaution.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 10:26 am
@Dave Allen,
Dave Allen;107827 wrote:
My beliefs are backed up with an understanding of the factors that influence the issue.

And I've provided evidence of them - without any sort of adequate rebuttal apart from "boohoohoo you're being mean".

Your beliefs - backed up by a lot of wind as far as I see.

But I'll try again - what is it about the CO2 molecule that gives rise to a warmer atmosphere, insofar as you understand it?

Step one of the process to having an actual informed debate, in other words.

Go on - you can vindicate yourself here if you like.


Somehow, I don't believe I need vindication. As I have already said, you are too rude for me to want to have a reasoned discussion with you. Even about chemistry, which you seem to believe this is all about.
0 Replies
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 10:30 am
@kennethamy,
Er, no, Physics mostly, as I already stated. Chemical reactions form the molecules - but don't explain their warming properties.

Even so I don't think Physics is "what it's all about" - but we need to understand step one before moving on to step two.

Step two means understanding the carbon cycle - which is a biological process in many ways, and geological in others.

Just admit you don't know if you like - it'd be easy to learn though.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 11:44 am
@Dave Allen,
Dave Allen;107829 wrote:
Er, no, Physics mostly, as I already stated. Chemical reactions form the molecules - but don't explain their warming properties.

Even so I don't think Physics is "what it's all about" - but we need to understand step one before moving on to step two.

Step two means understanding the carbon cycle - which is a biological process in many ways, and geological in others.

Just admit you don't know if you like - it'd be easy to learn though.


I would, except I don't know what it is I am supposed not to know that is relevant to whether we should take draconian measures. I mean that we have been told that we are on the edge of disaster (either cooling or warming, they cannot make up their minds) for the last 30 years. And here we are. You do know the tale of the boy who cried "wolf", I suppose, and, of course, "The Emperor's New Clothes". Don't forget that one.
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 12:14 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;107843 wrote:
I would, except I don't know what it is I am supposed not to know that is relevant to whether we should take draconian measures.


Try this:

IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report

Or its Wikipedia Summary:

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 02:06 pm
@kennethamy,
Thanks Pangloss - that first one is particularly succinct.

Will this have an impact on living standards? Of course it will. Industrial society has had a massive 'free kick' courtesy of the cheapness and abundance of carbon-based energy sources. I mean, drive a spike in the ground, out comes several hundred million years worth of solar power in liquid form.

Those days are coming to an end. The implications are momentous, no question. And that is why the world needs to learn to act together to deal with climate change (AND energy security AND food security AND environmental degradation)
0 Replies
 
Theaetetus
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 03:08 pm
@kennethamy,
Here is an interesting article I read on climate change politics by Naomi Klein.

Quote:

Among the smartest and most promising-not to mention controversial-proposals is "climate debt," the idea that rich countries should pay reparations to poor countries for the climate crisis. In the world of climate-change activism, this marks a dramatic shift in both tone and content. American environmentalism tends to treat global warming as a force that transcends difference: We all share this fragile blue planet, so we all need to work together to save it. But the coalition of Latin American and African governments making the case for climate debt actually stresses difference, zeroing in on the cruel contrast between those who caused the climate crisis (the developed world) and those who are suffering its worst effects (the developing world). Justin Lin, chief economist at the World Bank, puts the equation bluntly: "About 75 to 80 percent" of the damages caused by global warming "will be suffered by developing countries, although they only contribute about one-third of greenhouse gases."

Climate debt is about who will pick up the bill. The grass-roots movement behind the proposal argues that all the costs associated with adapting to a more hostile ecology-everything from building stronger sea walls to switching to cleaner, more expensive technologies-are the responsibility of the countries that created the crisis. "What we need is not something we should be begging for but something that is owed to us, because we are dealing with a crisis not of our making," says Lidy Nacpil, one of the coordinators of Jubilee South, an international organization that has staged demonstrations to promote climate reparations. "Climate debt is not a matter of charity."

Climate Rage | Naomi Klein
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 03:18 pm
@Theaetetus,
Theaetetus;107899 wrote:
Here is an interesting article I read on climate change politics by Naomi Klein.


Climate Rage | Naomi Klein



Sigh! Liberals continue to focus on their guilt. And if rich, are willing to alleviate it with money. Like buying carbon credits. It would be funny if not so pathetic.
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 03:27 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;107902 wrote:
Sigh! Liberals continue to focus on their guilt. And if rich, are willing to alleviate it with money. Like buying carbon credits. It would be funny if not so pathetic.


It's not about guilt, but justice, and could in fact be an interesting case under international law. Just like if your neighbor was inadvertently polluting your yard, you would expect him to pay the required damages for cleaning up the mess. Of course with global warming it would be much more difficult, maybe impossible, to make a good case establishing a causal link between any certain nation's carbon emissions and the negative effects of these emissions harming another state.

So, while I doubt this "debt" will ever be payed off, and I don't agree that it should simply because it doesn't seem possible to establish the causal relationship, it's still an interesting case to think about.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 04:43 pm
@kennethamy,
well if the conservatives have their way, the rich will buy their own continent, put a wall around it, and leave the other 99.9% of humanity to slug it out for the remainder. But then, if you have no sense of social responsibility, I suppose there is nothing wrong with that idea.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 04:58 pm
@jeeprs,
jeeprs;107915 wrote:
well if the conservatives have their way, the rich will buy their own continent, put a wall around it, and leave the other 99.9% of humanity to slug it out for the remainder. But then, if you have no sense of social responsibility, I suppose there is nothing wrong with that idea.


Is there class warfare down under too? Left-Liberalism is such fun! You can feel so good about yourself, and it doesn't cost a dime.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 05:26 pm
@kennethamy,
no class warfare, but then we don't have the robber-baron kleptocracy that the US does (despite the best efforts of the right to import it).
0 Replies
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 04:04 am
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;107843 wrote:
I would, except I don't know what it is I am supposed not to know that is relevant to whether we should take draconian measures.

The measures needed taken depend on the scale of the threat.

To understand the scale of the threat you have to understand what it is about emitting carbon gasses that leads to global warming, and what the carbon cycle is and why we shouldn't upset it.

Then a sensible debate as to the scale and the measures can be begun.

Until then ill-informed punditry is all that can be expressed.

From both sides of the debate.

I think I said this before.

Quote:
I mean that we have been told that we are on the edge of disaster (either cooling or warming, they cannot make up their minds) for the last 30 years.

A scientist in the 1970s discovered a cooling trend.

This trend - it is postulated - is a metatrend that will lead to a cooler period in the future of the Earth - thousands of years from now.

The popular press - not scientific journals - leapt on this and you saw headlines like "there's a new ice age on the way!" in Time magazine and so on.

As is so often the case - the perception the popular press created about the science was at odds with reality.

The meta trend is still plausable science - there is likely to be - one day - a cooler earth. These things happen in cycles.

However, all climatologists agree the earth is currently in a state of warming. The evidence points to this trend (within a metatrend, if you like).

There is still some disagreement on what is causing the warming, those skeptics of man made warming are outweighed to an exponential degree by proponents of the idea.

The "Oh my god we're all going to freeze!" panic of the 1970s was a popular press notion - not a scientific one.

"They cannot make up their minds" is a fallacy. A lie.

"They" aren't obliged to agree, for a start, even so they pretty much all agree - we are seeing an abberant rise in temperature which is probably avoidable or could be mitigated if we take action.

This rise is perhaps apart from normal cycles of heating and cooling that will effect the Earth until the sun goes nova.

One of which looks likely to be an ice age thousands of years in the future, which our man made rise of the now will not prevent.

But we could prevent/slow down/restrict the current rise - so why not do so and stop a lot of human suffering?

Quote:
And here we are. You do know the tale of the boy who cried "wolf", I suppose, and, of course, "The Emperor's New Clothes". Don't forget that one.

So the science is irrelevent.

But fairytales aren't?

In your opinion maybe.

That's the standard of debate you seem to want - remember the Emperor's New Clothes - but let's not discuss what actually seems to be happening here - because that's irrelevent.


kennethamy;107902 wrote:
Like buying carbon credits. It would be funny if not so pathetic.

Carbon offsets are unlikely to provide a long term solution.

But as a transitional tool they are useful.

When you panicked earlier about a return to Victorian Living Standards you were summoning up a fictional worst case scenario.

But there is no doubt that trying to run an industrial nation on green energy tomorrow would be impossible to acheive without an energy crisis, people having to go without energy and a possible breakdown in central authority.

And developing people can hardly be expected to sit idly by whilst developed people have all the fun at their expense (though no one is seriously contemplating a return to the stone age - you can't 'forget' technological advances like that).

What's needed is to buy time.

Which is what Carbon offsetting does - the richer nations buy time in order to develop and implement green technologies.

The developing world inhibits it's own industrialisation and deforestation - for which it is compensated with money - allowing it to trade with the developed world and further support their efforts to innovate and implement green technology.

There is of course a human cost to this - but it is seen as the lesser of two evils.

In the end hopefully all nations will develop less energy hungry lifestyles and energy sources - and the time needed to do so will have been provided with carbon offsetting and the damage done in the meantime will be decreased.

Psychological benefits, such as avoiding guilt, are just a fringe benefit.


jeeprs;107929 wrote:
kleptocracy

To be fair, it's not been a kleptocracy since 2004, I think.

The kleptarch and his kleptocrats were still in charge - I suppose - but with the will of the voters.

And he's gone now - thank the fates.
0 Replies
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 09:48 am
@kennethamy,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nnVQ2fROOg

Ah well, all wrapped up then?
xris
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 10:32 am
@Dave Allen,
Just as we suspected misinformation when its fed to the blinkered, convinced, its gobbled up without a moments thought. Now Ken what about my link made at the begining , do you want to discuss that now? If there is a conspiracy its by those with vested interests in the coal and oil business, just as my link exposes.
0 Replies
 
Dave Allen
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 10:54 am
@kennethamy,
Yeah, if the climatologists are as venal as deniers like to pretend why haven't more of them taken the jobs the fossil fuel industry must be offering for anyone who could show - LEGITIMATELY - how all the data pointed to a happy place called "No Need to Worry"?
 

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