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Climate Change Politics

 
 
xris
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 12:58 pm
@memester,
Massive amounts of plastic deposited, mixed with the co in our oceans ! as plastics dissolve in co, what can we expect?acid oceans? I'm no expert but I'm sufficiently intelligent to understand that mans incessant misuse of his environment is causing untold damage. We must look at the results and admit its us, not nature. Nature is not showing any indications it is causing these horrors, so it must be us..get real for goodness sake..please
0 Replies
 
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 01:27 pm
@memester,
memester;115879 wrote:
the science is not settled.
There are naturally many unknowns out there, and some areas with more controversy than others. However, I think you can also run the risk of overstating the amount of scientific equipoise out there too.

---------- Post added 12-31-2009 at 02:31 PM ----------

xris;115909 wrote:
Massive amounts of plastic deposited, mixed with the co in our oceans ! as plastics dissolve in co, what can we expect?acid oceans?
Well, no, actually, as far as I understand it... One thing about plastics is that they do not dissolve in water. They may dissolve in various hydrocarbon solvents, but they will not in the ocean. If you read the fascinating book The World Without Us, there is a chapter about this. The enormous deposits of plastic in the ocean are getting battered and eroded to smaller and smaller pieces of -- plastic. They are eaten and incorporated by all sorts of marine life, and who knows what the result will be.

As of yet, to my knowledge, there is no microorganism that can metabolize plastic -- but there will be. It's just too rich a hydrocarbon resource. This is one of the holy grails of industrial microbiology, to engineer a bacterium that can metabolize plastic.

But plastic itself doesn't dissolve in water. And even if it did, it would not necessarily be acidic, because the basic monomer in plastics is methane (CH4).
xris
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 01:50 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes;115916 wrote:
There are naturally many unknowns out there, and some areas with more controversy than others. However, I think you can also run the risk of overstating the amount of scientific equipoise out there too.

---------- Post added 12-31-2009 at 02:31 PM ----------

Well, no, actually, as far as I understand it... One thing about plastics is that they do not dissolve in water. They may dissolve in various hydrocarbon solvents, but they will not in the ocean. If you read the fascinating book The World Without Us, there is a chapter about this. The enormous deposits of plastic in the ocean are getting battered and eroded to smaller and smaller pieces of -- plastic. They are eaten and incorporated by all sorts of marine life, and who knows what the result will be.

As of yet, to my knowledge, there is no microorganism that can metabolize plastic -- but there will be. It's just too rich a hydrocarbon resource. This is one of the holy grails of industrial microbiology, to engineer a bacterium that can metabolize plastic.

But plastic itself doesn't dissolve in water. And even if it did, it would not necessarily be acidic, because the basic monomer in plastics is methane (CH4).
Aedes Im no expert but we must assume certain untold results of our stupidity could be causing this effect. I just assumed, obviously wrongly, that the Co2 in the oceans might just be dissolving the plastics causing this acidic reaction. We must look at what we see and realise it is our doing.

Carbon Dioxide in the Ocean and Atmosphere - sea, depth, oceans, important, system, plants, marine, oxygen, human, Pacific On my journey to find out more this link was very informative for me. It appears more complex than I ever believed. The acids that form from this process Aedes, could they be dissolving the plastics? sorry but my education never prepared me for such debates.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 02:22 pm
@xris,
we can take a look at what they have been doing.
Keith Briffa has turned out to be a big player even though he's "small potatoes" as a researcher.
His work was used to confirm that everything ties together.
It probably all boils down to what 3 trees said earlier and 12 trees said now.
xris
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 02:26 pm
@memester,
memester;115932 wrote:
we can take alook at what they have been doing.
Keith Briffa has turned out to be a big player even though he's "small potatoes" as a researcher.
His work was used to confirm that everything ties together.
It probably all boils down to what 3 trees said earlier and 12 trees said now.
What is the real point you are trying to make in all of this? Just for once lay your cards on the table.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 02:37 pm
@xris,
xris;115933 wrote:
What is the real point you are trying to make in all of this? Just for once lay your cards on the table.
my point is that the science is not settled, it's very much questionable. and if you want to find out more, you have to look, instead of changing the subject.

We are supposed to listen to the dirty preachers, and lock up politicians who do not heed their warnings, socially denounce those citizens who do not bend the knee, etc. etc.

they've gotten some big power, and are way out of control.

As the Al Gores will tell you, the first Climate Refugees are starting to move.
Tuvalu is going under the sea. And it's our fault.
Quote:
Prime Minister Saufatu Sapo'aga told the United Nations last year that the global-warming threat is no different from "a slow and insidious form of terrorism against us." Independent scientists also offer a grim forecast. "Because of its location and physical nature, Tuvalu is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change and in particular rising sea level,"
Read more: Will Tuvalu Disappear Beneath the Sea? | Travel | Smithsonian Magazine





The Strange Case of Tuvalu - Page 6


Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 03:25 pm
@memester,
memester;115935 wrote:
my point is that the science is not settled, it's very much questionable.
Some things are more questionable than others. That the globe is currently warming, at least on a century-by-century and decade-by-decade level, is not all that questionable. Whether it's historically aberrant is more questionable. And whether it's attributable in whole or in part to human activity is yet more questionable. But science is about case-building in the end, isn't it? That's what research is for.

---------- Post added 12-31-2009 at 04:38 PM ----------

xris;115922 wrote:
I just assumed, obviously wrongly, that the Co2 in the oceans might just be dissolving the plastics causing this acidic reaction....

The acids that form from this process Aedes, could they be dissolving the plastics? sorry but my education never prepared me for such debates.
Accept some caveats to my understanding as well -- but just in very general terms hydrophobic things like hydrocarbons (including plastics) are not usually soluble in acids and bases. They are potentially soluble in detergents, which have mixed hydrophobic / hydrophilic properties, and in solvents that can chemically interact with hydrocarbons.

Also keep in mind that the acidification of the ocean is quite subtle. It's happening at a level that may be physiologically important to organisms, but it's probably not going to make major changes to the non-biologic chemistry of the ocean. The human bloodstream is regulated for a pH of roughly 7.40 - 7.42. Even a pH of 7.2 is significantly abnormal, and people with a pH under 7.0 or over 7.5 are usually critically ill. These are very small pH changes with huge biological implications -- but 6.9 vs 7.4 doesn't allow our blood to dissolve plastics.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 03:56 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes;115940 wrote:
Some things are more questionable than others. That the globe is currently warming, at least on a century-by-century and decade-by-decade level, is not all that questionable. Whether it's historically aberrant is more questionable. And whether it's attributable in whole or in part to human activity is yet more questionable. But science is about case-building in the end, isn't it? That's what research is for.

Yes, we agree on most of this I think. I would even say that it is sure that human activity has some effect.

Abd on overall health of life forms diversity, human activity is having a pretty profound effect. So to me that part is not subject to the scepticism about the science of Climate Change
0 Replies
 
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 04:22 pm
@kennethamy,
Climate change wouldn't be the subject of much public debate if it didn't come down to policy questions. There are plenty of academic paradigms that don't get any sort of public attention. But there are a lot of interests at stake in this, and lots of implications. Even if the worst of the predictions are true, it's absolutely impossible to know if the current state of being is at all reversible.

So the trickiest part is for policymakers -- how do we decide what to do? How perfect does the science need to be before we put policies into effect?
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 05:21 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes;115949 wrote:
Climate change wouldn't be the subject of much public debate if it didn't come down to policy questions. There are plenty of academic paradigms that don't get any sort of public attention. But there are a lot of interests at stake in this, and lots of implications. Even if the worst of the predictions are true, it's absolutely impossible to know if the current state of being is at all reversible.

So the trickiest part is for policymakers -- how do we decide what to do? How perfect does the science need to be before we put policies into effect?
This whole sham os science has distracted from the need for more protection of actual resources ( such as rivers and air ) through legislation raising standards and demanding enforcement.
0 Replies
 
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 05:26 pm
@kennethamy,
Good science is too slow and too narrowly focused to determine urgent policy. The lack of legal enforcement of environmental standards isn't a failing of science, it's a failing of common sense among legislators and their easy corruptibility.

I think that there is ample rationale to limit carbon emissions without invoking climate change. It's one of many reasons -- but isn't there economic, geopolitical, environmental, and medical benefit to this anyway?
memester
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 08:12 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes;115965 wrote:
Good science is too slow and too narrowly focused to determine urgent policy. The lack of legal enforcement of environmental standards isn't a failing of science, it's a failing of common sense among legislators and their easy corruptibility.

I think that there is ample rationale to limit carbon emissions without invoking climate change. It's one of many reasons -- but isn't there economic, geopolitical, environmental, and medical benefit to this anyway?
right, there is more than plenty to do on the table already, AGW or no AGW, and much of it aims to address the "what to do ?", anyway.

Efficient public transport and so on needs to be in place. Efficient and low cost enough, to get people out of the car. Or else they need to buy that car, if only to get to work.

and we probably need to figure out how to make coal a good thing to use meantime, because it is going to be used. ? Stricter standards on emissions are a no-brainer, constant pressure to do better is good.

Unless population decreases, we can only do a little.

You could scrimp carbon for ten lifetimes to offset one new birth in North America
xris
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 06:25 am
@memester,
Till we have a general agreement on the fact that we have a problem then the will to actually be serious in our reaction is not going to be there. We do need to panic, we do need to be proactive in our actions. Science and man will not change sufficiently till the cliffs starts collapsing below their feet. Its very easy to say dont exaggerate dont be extreme in your views, if we dont act with a certain urgency we will all suffer. The time for quite observation is over.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 07:22 am
@xris,
**************quiet**********************
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 08:35 am
@xris,
xris;116043 wrote:
Till we have a general agreement on the fact that we have a problem then the will to actually be serious in our reaction is not going to be there.
There is general agreement on the fact. The amount of dissent within the scientific community is tiny, and the scientific petitioners against anthropogenic climate change are almost exclusively not climate scientists. The lack of agreement and the controversy largely boil down to policy disagreements and not science.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 10:09 am
@Aedes,
yeah, we just have non reliable numbers, and dishonesty rampant in the science.
other than that, everything is settled.

it's gotta be a secret, how this marvelous SCIENCE is done. It's so fantastic that you wouldn't believe it if you knew, so they won't tell you.

QUICK ! EEEEEEEEEE! Open the U.S. treasury to Tuvalu !!! eeeeee ! It's sinking, it's sinking ! Give it quick ! Can't you see all the tears ?

It's a nation already evacuated... ! eeeeeee ! Send Fort Knox to Tuvalu !

It's MEGA DISASTER! THE BIRTH RATE IS ABOUT 22/1000.... RISING PRECIPITOUSLY IN THE LAST 5 YEARS COMPARED TO OTHER NATIONS !

SEND ALL YOUR MONEY !


Tuvalu Sinks Today--the Rest of Us Tomorrow?
0 Replies
 
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 10:57 am
@kennethamy,
Memester, let's pull some primary articles and critique the actual science, rather than making emotional generalizations about science in general. Pick one.
memester
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 11:00 am
@Aedes,
Aedes;116074 wrote:
Memester, let's pull some primary articles and critique the actual science, rather than making emotional generalizations about science in general. Pick one.
Pick one that they have given the methodology and data for ? Show the list to pick from.
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 12:40 pm
@memester,
memester;116075 wrote:
Pick one that they have given the methodology and data for
This was published one week ago in Nature.

Access : The velocity of climate change : Nature

Here are the methods:

Access : The velocity of climate change : Nature

Quote:
Show the list to pick from.
There's no "list"... I just put search terms into a database for the scientific literature. I used medline, because it includes some general science journals like Nature and Science, but there are other search engines.



Edit -- I just happened upon this very nice review -- I know one of the authors personally, his daughter is a good friend of my brother. I like review materials because their reference sections are a goldmine of primary literature.

Access : A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems : Nature
memester
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jan, 2010 01:34 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes;116095 wrote:
This was published one week ago in Nature.

Access : The velocity of climate change : Nature

Here are the methods:

Access : The velocity of climate change : Nature

There's no "list"... I just put search terms into a database for the scientific literature. I used medline, because it includes some general science journals like Nature and Science, but there are other search engines.



Edit -- I just happened upon this very nice review -- I know one of the authors personally, his daughter is a good friend of my brother. I like review materials because their reference sections are a goldmine of primary literature.

Access : A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems : Nature
has this been through the IPPC "works" ? Aren't we supposed to be checking on what they put out ? Governments are not going to be reacting to single studies, are they ?

It's all about IPPC views and nothing else. isn't it ?
 

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