ARIZONA 3rd DISTRICT HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
You say "Huh?"
There are perhaps a half dozen Republicans vying for this open seat in northern Phoenix. I think the primary is in late August and the nominee will will the general election.
How do you make noise in such a crowded field? SHOOT GUNS!
Pamela Gorman does that in an ad.
(Perhaps someone could google in pamela gorman az ad and post the video here. Thanks.)
Speaking of guns, Politico has a rather interesting column up today on how the recent SCOTUS ruling on the second amendment might help the Democrats in November.
Democrats quietly cheer high court gun ruling
PENNSYLVANIA SENATE (7/1):
Rasmussen has conservative former congressman Pat Toomey (R) leading congressman Joe Sestek (D) 45% to 38%. There has been little change in this race for months. Sestek did get a brief bounce when he defeated the incumbent Senator, veteran Arlen Spector, in the Democrat primary. Spector quit the Republican party when it became evident he could not survive a primary challenge from Toomey. He switched to the Democrat party and lost to Sestek instead.
The Obama administration is considering a legal challenge to the new Arizona immigration law. In PA 31% favor a challenge while 55% oppose. Nationally just 26% favor.
The only other recent poll listed on Real Clear Politics was from PPP on June 21st showing the race a tie. PPP has Democrat links.
I would move this from Toss Up to Leans Republican.
@Irishk,
Well, the same thing could have been vital or fatal depending on the viewpoint in 2000. It 2008, everyone seemed to kind of tiptoe around the issue, though that might have been because McCain didn't come across as very strong on 2nd amendment issues. In other works, I think it would only be an important effect in a very close race, and with a clear distinction between individual candidates.
KENTUCKY SENATE (6/30):
As in PA, Rasmussen is showing this race for the seat held by retiring Senator Jim Bunning (R) with little change from earlier polls.
Rand Paul (R), supported by the Tea Party movement, is at 49% vs 42% for Attorney General Jack Conway. Paul is a medical doctor making his first foray into politics. He is the son of Ron Paul, the Libertarian representative from Texas who has run for President a couple of times.
Paul got a big bounce after his primary win in late May but then made some eyebrow raising comments that got some national media attention.
Paul said that he would not accept assistance in his campaign from any member of the GOP who voted for the 2008 "bank bailout" legislation. He has now backed down from that.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, also from KY, did not support Paul in the primary but is now side by side with him.
Paul reported today that he got $1.1 million in contributions in the quarter ended yesterday, above the $600 thousand in each of the last 2 quarters but ahead of the $1 million in the quarter before that.
Conway is also no slouch at raising money. This could be a very expensive race.
@roger,
roger wrote:Well, the same thing could have been vital or fatal depending on the viewpoint in 2000. It 2008, everyone seemed to kind of tiptoe around the issue, though that might have been because McCain didn't come across as very strong on 2nd amendment issues. In other works, I think it would only be an important effect in a very close race, and with a clear distinction between individual candidates.
I've been watching the changes in betting on Intrade fairly closely and notice that Reid has inched up a bit in the last few days. I'm wondering if that's due to a rumor that
the NRA is considering endorsing Reid over Angle. Intrade is still favoring Angle by a small margin, but Reid is above 50% for the first time since the primary.
@Irishk,
Thanks, Irishk, for that link to the NRA's dilemma in Nevada regarding Reid and Angle. I was not aware of any of that.
I suspect that, if the thrust of the article is true, the NRA will keeps its head down and powder dry until after the summer. If Reid still trails when the campaign really gets fired up, they then may have to pull the trigger.
It would certainly be big news for the NRA to endorse a prominent Dem over a very conservative Repub with Tea Party support.
How significant do you think an NRA endorsement would be for Reid? I think I would contend that an Obama administration challenge to Arizona's immigration law would have more of an impact.
We shall see.
Thanks for watching this sleepy thread.
realjohnboy wrote:I suspect that, if the thrust of the article is true, the NRA will keeps its head down and powder dry until after the summer. If Reid still trails when the campaign really gets fired up, they then may have to pull the trigger.
at the intended pun. Regarding the truth of the rumor, an email inquiry to the NRA on its validity results in a rather longish and glowing report of Reid's recent commitments to the rights of gun-owners. You don't have to be a member to obtain a response and if interested, I can post the email I received (it's a stock explanation of their current position on Senator Reid in which they indicate they haven't made a decision on whether to endorse anyone in the Nevada senate race).
Quote:It would certainly be big news for the NRA to endorse a prominent Dem over a very conservative Repub with Tea Party support.
How significant do you think an NRA endorsement would be for Reid?
I don't know, but I don't think it's entirely coincidental that his uptick on Intrade came at precisely the time this rumor was made known. That said, the NRA is a single-issue organization by their own admission and most polls indicate jobs and the economy are at the top of most voters' priorities.
Quote:I think I would contend that an Obama administration challenge to Arizona's immigration law would have more of an impact.
I don't see that happening before November, and given the apparent public support of Arizona's law, I'm skeptical if the DOJ will actually follow through.
If I were to guess, I also doubt we'll see an NRA endorsement, although it's certainly possible and based on the criteria they laid out in their email to me, it supports your theory that they will wait until just before the election to announce:
NRA, responding to rumor inquiry wrote:Regarding any potential endorsement of Sen. Reid in the upcoming elections, NRA-PVF has not yet announced any ratings or endorsements in this race. Ratings and endorsements will be determined closer to the election. It is important to note, however, that the NRA is a single issue organization and that when our ratings and endorsements are announced, they are based solely on a candidate’s support for, or opposition to, our Second Amendment rights. Other issues, as important as they may be to many people, do not and cannot play any role in those decisions. NRA represents a broad coalition of American gun owners, who are bound together by their support for the right to keep and bear arms.
An uninformed IrishK wrote:If I were to guess, I also doubt we'll see an NRA endorsement, although it's certainly possible and based on the criteria they laid out in their email to me, it supports your theory that they will wait until just before the election to announce
I suppose not being a gun-owner (nor a member of the NRA) could be my excuse for not knowing that the NRA endorsed Sen. Reid back in 2004. I learned this when I decided to look up past Democrats that have earned the endorsement of the gun lobby and so now I'm thinking it's probably more likely than not that Reid will indeed receive the NRA's endorsement.
Another prominent Democrat earning their endorsement this election year is incumbent Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH). This is according to several articles published around the middle of June.
I was aware that the NRA supported Reid in 2004. I should have mentioned that and that he brought a large NRA backed federally funded project to Nevada.
The Obama Justice Department did indeed indicate today that it will be formally challenging the new AZ law involving checking the status of suspected illegal immigrants. I said that I thought the administration would hold off on that until after November.
A little election music, please...
U.S. SENATE as of early July:
There are currently 59 Democrats and 41 Republicans. Included in the 59 are 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems and a vacant seat due to the death of Byrd (D-WV). His seat will be filled by an interim appointment who will be a Dem.
*Rasmussen has the split right now as 49 Dems, 41 Repubs and 10 Tossups.
*Real Clear Politics (an amalgamation of polls) has it as 49-42-9 but takes it further with an elimination of the tossups. There they come up with 51-48.
That only adds up to 99. It could be because of the Byrd vacancy or because of the Crist situation in Florida.
*Larry Sabato of UVA has it as 52-48 if he had to predict today. He shows 5 tossups.
Quote:*Rasmussen has the split right now as 49 Dems, 41 Repubs and 10 Tossups.
He includes WI and WA in the 'tossups' column. I think Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com may be closer to reality in having WI in the 'Likely Dem' column and WA in the 'Leans Dem' column. Still, there's 3-1/2 months to go so maybe Ras thinks the close polling numbers are significant.
Hi, Irishk - and anyone else following this.
Rasmussen's 10 tossups: Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin, Washington, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Ohio.
Sabato's list of 5: California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Ohio.
Real Clear Politics has 9: Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin.
In the case of Rasmussen, his list is based on some pretty old polls (as in, a month or so).
NORTH CAROLINA SENATE (July 6th):
Rasmussen now has the incumbent, Richard Burr (R) leading the challenger, Elaine Marshall (D) by a margin of 52% to 37%. The poll a month ago, taken right after Marshall finally won the series of Dem primaries, had the race in a tie. Marshall's bounce has withered away. I think we can safely call this as a safe Republican hold.
I think that Washington leans Dem but I would still keep Wisconsin as a tossup.
As an aside, you (I think) alerted me to Nate Silver. I followed him for a few days, but he seemed to spend a lot of time complaining that Rasmussen was getting more publicity than he was. Has he gotten over that?
@realjohnboy,
Nate's into it with Zogby currently
His exposure on fivethirtyeight.com will be limited after August as he's accepted a position with The New York Times.
I like the site primarily for the intelligence of the commenters, although as usual with political blogs, they are nothing if not partisan for the most part and can be brutal in their smackdowns of those with which they don't agree.
FLORIDA SENATE (July 6th):
This is one of the most fascinating races this year. It's an open seat held by a Republican.
Rasmussen has Marco Rubio (R) at 36%, Independent Charlie Crist at 34% and Kendrick Meek (D) with 15%. "Unsure" comes in at 14%.
The Dems have not yet chosen a candidate. That will happen in a primary in mid-August. Opposing Meek, an African-American member of Congress, is billionaire political novice Jeff Greene.
Rasmussen has a match up assuming Greene wins has Rubio at 37%, Crist at 33%, Greene with 18% and Unsure at 12%.
Rubio's numbers are unchanged from a month ago. Governor Crist left the Republican party when he realized Rubio would crush him in the primary. His numbers are down a bit. Meek is down a bit from a couple of months ago while Greene is up somewhat.
There has been a bit of a financial scandal in the FL Repub party that seems to be still festering. Rubio has an unfavorable rating of 25% vs 17% a month ago while Crist is at 19% vs 13%.
Some prominent Dems have reportedly given up on Meek or Greene and may come out in favor Crist.
Crist, a month ago, had a favorable rating of 60% in his job performance as Governor. Now it is 53%.
Today he announced that he is calling a special session of the state legislature to try to get a referendum on the November FL ballot to ban off shore drilling in FL waters (up to 11 miles from shore). Whether that happens or not remains unclear, but it certainly keeps Crist in the spotlight.
A West Virginia Update: Robert Byrd (D) died with 2+ years remaining in his term. WVA and federal laws about what should happen are a bit murky. Governor Joe Manchin (D) is drooling about succeeding Byrd but is reluctant to appoint himself for 2+ years. Instead he wants a special election this November with another election in 2012.
He got a favorable ruling today from WVA's Attorney General. If it stands, Manchin can run in November. The Repubs do not seem to have viable opponents against him or for what would be a race for a new Gov.
(3750)
In a new poll just out,
SurveyUSA has Carly Fiorina (R-CA) at 47%, and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) at 45% (so, essentially tied).
Rasmussen hasn't polled this race in a month or so, but last showed the incumbent Boxer ahead by 5 points in mid- June.
In the California governor's race, SurveyUSA has Whitman (R) 46, Brown (D) 39. Rasmussen's June 10 poll showed Brown leading by 1.
I'm continuing to watch the Intrade numbers on the political bets, so I'll just plunk down here that in the Midterm 2010 election category of US House of Representatives Control, the Republicans are leading Democrats by about 10 points. This is fairly recent (the Republicans began pulling ahead about 2 weeks ago) with trading fairly even so far. Of course, with 3-1/2 months remaining before the election, it's possible this could bounce back and forth and trading won't pick up significantly until late Fall.
In the 2010 Senate Control category, the Democrats are crushing the Republicans by more than 60 points (not surprising since the Repubs would have to run the table and more to win back the Senate).
Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...
i've heard that christmas is on the 25th of december again this year
@djjd62,
djjd62 wrote:i've heard that christmas is on the 25th of december again this year
Funny...I heard Christmas was cancelled this year. Someone told Santa you've been a very good boy and....
he died laughing.
I find it hard to believe that Boxer will lose it CA. But I guess it could happen.
I will try to catch up on recent polls nationally in a day or so, I have been involved in other stuff for a few days.
@realjohnboy,
Quote: I find it hard to believe that Boxer will lose it CA. But I guess it could happen.
I think if you investigate you will see that she is a very Washington person, that she has never done that good of a job forming relationships back in California. I have heard this, but not confirmed.
