Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

That's a good synopsis rjb. I see it unfolding that way, tho I don't think the scandal is going to hurt either Rubio or Crist.

Probably not...unless one of them gets indicted lol.

Greer is trying to finger Crist, but I don't buy it. I don't think Rubio or Crist knew about the shell companies

Just checked Intrade. Rubio is still heavily favored...with Crist inching up.

Now that the teachers union is off for the summer they'll be scroungin' up votes Big Time!

In the Nevada senate race, Rasmussen (grain/salt) has Angle at 50% to Reid's 39%. This could merely be a primary bump for Angle; I'll see if I can rummage any other polls to compare.



I predict this will be one of the more 'intense' races we'll see (ok, make that 'nasty' lol)...I know I wouldn't want to be Ms. Angle...especially if she has any skeletons in her closet.

This is yet again one of the Rasmussen 'meme setter' polls. He does this often - release bullshit numbers in favor of the Republican candidate, which don't match any other poll at all.

No other poll comes anywhere close to those numbers. I don't buy 'em. And I bet that Ras' next poll doesn't either.

Cycloptichorn

I haven't seen any post-primary polls except for today's Rasmussen poll. I found an informal, unscientific poll in a local Nevada news source. It has Angle leading 55% to 45% with a couple thousand participants voting.

OT (sorta): Just read on the 538 blog that Nate's scathing analysis of Research 2000 caused DailyKos to drop them as their preferred pollster...wow (and yay).

Yup. I've always taken the Research2k polls with a grain of salt, as their accuracy isn't fantastic. Nice to see DKos responding to this by demanding greater performance, instead of just going with the guys who produce the answers they like.

Cycloptichorn

Good afternoon. I am trying to clear my desk of notes that probably meant something to me when I wrote them.
There have been something like 25 primaries to select Dem or Repub candidates for the Senate. 25 or so to go in July, August and September. I can't imagine why a party would want to see the internecine fighting go on so long.
There are no Senate primaries scheduled for the next couple of weeks.

You will recall that the current makeup of the Senate is 41 Repubs and 59 Dems (actually 2 senators are Independents but caucus with the Dems).
Real Clear Politics (RCP), which is kind of a poll of polls, has 3 Senate seats currently held by Dems likely to go Repub: Arkansas, Delaware and North Dakota. I can't disagree with that. So that would make it 44 for the Repubs and 56 for the Dems.

>RCP has 8 states listed as Tossups:
Colorado: Bennet (D) in a battle.
Florida: an open (R) seat.
Illinois: an open (D) seat.
Missouri: an open (R) seat.
Nevada: Reid (D) in a closely watched contest.
Ohio: an open (R) seat.
Pennsylvania: an open (D) seat.
Washington: Murray (D) being challenged.
>RCP has 3 states leaning Repub:
Indiana: an open (D) seat.
Kentucky: an open (R) seat.
New Hampshire: an open (R) seat.
North Carolina: Burr (R) in a tight race. But I doubt he will lose.
>RCP has 2 states leaning Dem:
California: Boxer (D) in a highly watched match up. I see Boxer winning.
Wisconsin: Feingold (D)

There should be some new polls out early next week.

At this time, after perusal of the Real Clear Politics consensus of polls, it is conceivable, but improbable that the GOP could take end up with 50 Senatorial seats. It is more likely, based on the polls at this time, that the Republicans will end up with at least 47 seats. This, of course, will doom any policies concocted in the White House to failure unless those policies are constructed in a bi-partisan fashion.

Several political pundits have suggested that there is a fair chance that the House of Representative could change from majority Democratic to majority Republican. It would be so sad to watch Nancy P. and Barney consigned to the back bench!!!

Does Cyclopitchorn accept Gallup?

Note:

Presidential Job ApprovalAmericans Rate Obama 7 Points Worse on Spill Than OverallBy party, Democrats' support falls off the most
June 7, 2010More Americans disapprove (46%) than approve (40%) of President Barack Obama's handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Obama earns a 47% job approval rating overall in Gallup Daily tracking encompassing the same time period.
More ...
Hispanics' Approval of Obama Drops in 2010By contrast, whites' and blacks' views have been highly steady
June 7, 2010Hispanics are significantly less approving of President Barack Obama now than they were as the year began, while whites' and blacks' approval has held steady. The monthly declines coincide with two periods of uproar in the Hispanic community over Obama's failure to advance comprehensive immigration reform.
More ...
Obama Weekly Approval Average Dips to New Low of 46%Obama's average has been in 46% to 50% range since mid-February
June 2, 2010At 46%, President Obama's job approval average for the week ending May 30 is the lowest weekly average of his administration, one point below the previous low of 47% measured in April.
More ...

*************************************************************************
Cyclopitchorn does not accept Rasmussen. Does he accept the Daily Kos polls?

I just realized that there's a 99% chance that you are, in fact, a resurrection of a former member who isn't worth my time to speak to. Do you think that people can't tell when you do this, Gato?

Cycloptichorn

RCP (which averaged the polls of Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and DailyKos) has Angle leading Reid 43.7 to 41.0

Pollster.com has Reid leading Angle 41.4 to 39.4.

But, given all the additional names on the ballot this year (plus the 'None of the Above' option), I can see Harry winning this one with less than 50% of the votes.

This one will be popcorn-worthy!

Edited to add: Intrade (for now) is favoring Angle!

Well, Cyclops, you may disguise your reluctance to participate as a waste of time but I am certain that you fear being shown to be wrong over and over. That is what has happened in the past and what will continue to happen unless you choose to hide. There is no problem with that, Cyclops. You post, I post, You make a point, I rebut the point. You choose not to answer. There is no problem there. We will let other posters note that you are too pusillanimous to defend yourself.

Irish k-

Note:



Nevada Senate - Angle vs. Reid
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Angle (R) Reid (D) Spread
RCP Average 5/31 - 6/9 -- 43.7 41.0 Angle +2.7
Rasmussen Reports 6/9 - 6/9 500 LV 50 39 Angle +11
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 6/1 - 6/3 625 LV 44 41 Angle +3
R2000/Daily Kos (D)* 5/31 - 6/2 600 LV 37 43 Reid +6

An interesting development in Ohio's gubernatorial race. Rasmussen has had this at pretty much a 'toss-up' with his last poll (around 2 weeks ago) showing John Kasich (R) leading sitting Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by a few points.

Then yesterday, Dailykos posted this very interesting news:



We'll need to keep an eye out for new polling numbers on this race. I'm betting Strickland will get quite the uptick in view of this latest endorsement, no?

Thanks for the update on the Ohio gubernatorial contest. I have been working the races for Senate and haven't started on the battles for Governors or members of the U.S. House.
In many cases the candidates are still engaged in primaries for nominations.

U.S. House of Representatives (6/15):
There are 255 Democrats and 177 Republicans in the House. 3 seats are vacant, to be filled either by special election shortly or in the general election in 5 months.
All 435 seats in the lower house will be voted on this year, but due to the glory of gerrymandering, there are about 70 that are truly in play.
NPR commissioned a Republican pollster and a Democrat pollster to look at 70 races. 60 of the seats are currently held by Repubs while 10 are held by Dems.
The conclusion that was arrived at is that the Repubs stand a very good chance of capturing the House.
In a generic poll (i.e. where voters in the 70 districts were lumped together) 49% of voters said that they would be voting for a Repub while 41% indicated that they would be voting for a Dem. 10% said they were not sure. I didn't write down whether the poll was of Likely Voters or Registered Voters.
60 of the districts were carried by McCain while Obama took 10 in the Presidential race.
In the 70 districts, Obama has an approval rating of 40% vs a disapproval rating of 54%. NPR says that is a lower approval than in the rest of the country. Rasmussen today shows an approval rating of 45% vs disapproval of 54% nationally.
Over on Real Clear Politics, their summary of polls breaks down the country with, were the election held now, the Dems would end up with 201 seats while the Repubs would have 199. 35 races are deemed to be tossups.

It seems to me that the Dems are more than a bit demoralized. The Repubs are pumped up; too much so perhaps. They run the risk of internecine battles. Here in the VA 5th district, just 24 hours after 6 or 7 Repubs held a primary to go against the incumbent Dem, several of the losing candidates declined to support the winner and an Independent announced that he will file to be on the ballot, claiming the Repub was not conservative enough.

Much more on the House as we slog forward towards November. Sorry to be so long-winded. Brevity has never been my forte.

The poll by NPR was of 'likely' voters. Nate Silver covered it in his blog this morning (I don't think he's too worried), along with this chart:

ARKANSAS SENATE (6/17):
The incumbent, Blanche Lincoln (D), needed to go a couple of rounds of primaries in her quest for a third term. She prevailed and there was a lot of national press coverage.
Now it comes down to the general election against Congressman John Boozeman (R). Lincoln is looking like toast.
Rasmussen has Boozeman up 61% to 32%.
She is getting punished for her support of the health care bill which is much more unpopular in Arkansas then it is nationally.
We can call this, barring something bizarre happening, as a Repub pickup.