The Winding Road To The Republican Nomination For President

One of these days when I'm bored and want something to do, I'm going to add up all the vote totals so far to see if my impression is correct. It appears to me that only about a million people have voted in the Republican primaries so far. This nomination is being decided upon by a very small percentage of the total citizenry.

Ehh, FL had 1.5 million voters in the GOP primary alone. It's probably somewhere around 7 million total by this point.

Let Google do your work for ya -

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html

Cycloptichorn

You beat me to it, Cyclo. Almost 7.9M in the primaries. I was surprised at how big, relatively, the total has grown.

93% of the KS vote in:
Santorum- 14,569 (51.6%)
Romney- 5,861 (20.8%)
Gingrich- 4,041 (14.3%)
Paul- 3,506 (12.4%)
Romney looks like he will clear the 20% mark I talked about before. That will gain him 5 delegates plus an addition 3 or so if he carries a congressional district. Santorum get the rest of the 40 at stake.

I'm embarrassed to be a Kansan...

but the whole state is going to hell in a conservative handbasket anyways.

33 delegates for Santorum. 7 for Romney.

The two major primaries tomorrow will be in Mississippi and Alabama. 90 delegates will be up for grabs, although I am confused a bit about the rules in MS.
The popular vote looks to be evenly divided amongst Romney, Santorum and Gingrich. I see the delegate split as being about 30-30-30 in the two states.

Nimh... is that you?

Polls starting to close in eastern AL.
Some exit polling shows 75% of voters described themselves as white evangelicals or born again Christians.
70% said they were conservative and 67% identified themselves as supporters of the Teaparty movement.
Only 40% said that they would vote for a candidate based on his ability to beat Obama.
I am betting on a not so good night for Romney in the popular vote. But he will rack up nearly 1/3rd of the delegates.

I can hear banjoes.

what nimh is sharing on FB (about 4 minutes ago)

http://images2.dailykos.com/i/user/3/spending_AL_MS.jpg

I strongly miss nimh.

Santorum wins both MS and AL. Romney looks to come in third in both states. !

The very definition of a weak front-runner.

If Newt had dropped out earlier I do believe that Santorum could have won this thing. As it is Romney is still the overwhelming favorite to win. But he'll have to expend much more serious cash contesting later states than he initially had planned.

Cycloptichorn

This thing Beth posted was suitably terrifying - how much more is he willing to spend? What's his ROI?

I, too, really miss Nimh.

Despite the hoopla about Santorum winning yesterday and Romney not winning, Romney gained about 41 delegates in Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii and American Samoa. Santorum got 37 followed by Gingrich at 24 and Paul with 3.
According to one tally (AP?), Romney has 463 delegates vs 247 for Santorum and 127 for Gingrich. Paul has 47.
The idea of an open convention is getting more remote.
Coming up this weekend is a caucus in Missouri (with 52 delegates selected but not bound to a candidate) and a primary in Puerto Rico (a winner take all thing for 23 delegates).
Mutterings tonight from some of Romney's $upporter$ that he needs to replace some of his campaign staff.

Especially the guy who rights the introductory small talk 'I like trees and cheesey grits'. Does that grate in the states as much as it does here? Colbert nailed it when he said that the Republicans and Romney have one thing in common; they are both uncomfortable with Mitt Romney.

Oh, I wouldn't say that. At all. Remember that many of the delegates people 'have' are unpledged. If Santorum keeps winning states, Romney will start losing support from delegates he's already 'won.'

I would go so far as to say the opposite is true - an open convention is more likely now than it ever has been.

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn

I'm hoping we start to see more of the real Romney once we get into the general election. Right now he's just pandering away like an automaton.

I once was listening to one of my hot shot technical sales guys give me a lecture about how he gets "into a potential clients pants". He starts by looking around the clients office and focusing in on some of the personal stuff he /or she has sitting arond. Then he focuses his opening remarks with some "Subtle" references abot how he (my sales guy) 's life is composed of some of the same activities. Its all bullshit of course but a reasonably smart person would see right through the sham "sincerity". Thats what I see Romney doing right now. Hes trying to relate some of his interests in terms of the town he is visiting. AND HES TERRIBLE AT IT. I dont see that changing much, in fact I see him making a total douche of himself as we get into more serious times of the campaign. In order for Romney to resonate at all he better just drop his failed attempt at connections and get right to his messages (if he has any).
Romney's going to have a big problem trying to be Ronald Reagan. He better just choose being Mitt and be done with it. Also, another suggestion, Id tell his wife to shut the **** up too, shes not doing anything but harm to his cause. She comes off like some kind of MArie Antoinette

I don't think the "real" Mitt can win the GOP nomination, which is why we're seeing this "bad actor" routine instead. But the "real" Mitt has a chance of winning the general election, so I wouldn't be surprised if he puts "bad actor" aside once the GOP nomination is over.

Ultimately I wish all politicians would just be themselves and be honest and let the cards fall where they may, but I'm virtually certain that's never going to happen.