Crossposted from the polls, bets etc thread:
News alert!
There's three new polls out on the Iowa caucuses since I posted the graphs above.
One is by LA Times/Bloomberg, and comes with some question marks: it's based on a small sample size, and more importantly, was carried out over the holidays (20-26 December), and thus potentially suffers from the problems laid out in the above two posts. For example, it has Obama very low, at 22%, just like the ARG poll right before Christmas, and unlike the polls before - and after.
After, because we now also have the first two polls taken completely after Christmas. And those two are very interesting, especially regarding the Democratic race.
Here they are!
Research 2000
12/26-27/07
29% Edwards
29% Obama
28% Clinton
Strategic Vision (R)
12/26-27/07
30% Obama
29% Clinton
28% Edwards
Look at that
This must definitely be as close as a race could possibly be. And who'd have thought Edwards would, at the very last moment, seem to catch up with the other two entirely!
Just two polls of course, but here's me hoping...