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THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, ELEVENTH THREAD

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Dec, 2007 05:06 pm
Damn! Almost a full day of civility. What is wrong?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Dec, 2007 05:33 pm
Slow news day, obviously.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 09:41 am
http://images.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/12/04/iraq/story.jpg
U.S. and Iraqi soldiers secure the site of a bomb attack in Baghdad on Dec. 2, 2007.

The influx of U.S. troops brought a relative lull in violence -- but the failing state remains in political chaos and is headed for collapse.

[Before dismissing it as leftist pessimism; answer some of the statements with why you think the statements are false or might not be accurate.]
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 04:22 pm
revel wrote:
http://images.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/12/04/iraq/story.jpg
U.S. and Iraqi soldiers secure the site of a bomb attack in Baghdad on Dec. 2, 2007.

The influx of U.S. troops brought a relative lull in violence -- but the failing state remains in political chaos and is headed for collapse.

[Before dismissing it as leftist pessimism; answer some of the statements with why you think the statements are false or might not be accurate.]

Humans are capable of making things better as well as worse. Now that the violent death rate in Iraq has decreased somewhat, the Iraqis and their government can begin to focus more of their energy on what they must do to secure their nation against those who would destroy or tyrannize it, and less on their immediate survival. I think we owe the Iraqis a chance to do exactly that. I think our doing that is also in our best interest.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 08:38 pm
Fair enough Ican; if at this same time next year there is no political progress; then what?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 09:08 pm
revel wrote:
Fair enough Ican; if at this same time next year there is no political progress; then what?

Ask me next year at this time whether or not there is any progress, because you see there are too many possibilities for next year whether there is or is not any progress, for me to bother speculating on them now.

However, I say this again: We must win and succeed in Iraq, because we Americans will suffer significant losses of our freedoms, if we do not win and succeed in Iraq.

The USA wins and succeeds in Iraq when the daily rate of violent deaths in Iraq decreases below 30, remains less than 30, while we are removing our troops, and remains less than 30 for at least a year after we have completed our departure.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 09:23 pm
National Public Radio today hosted a Democratic candidates debate from Des Moines. Everyone was there except Bill Richardson. I hoped that, since it was radio (and NPR) vs television, folks would be more casual, more open.
But I really heard nothing new about the three main topics: Iran, China and China trade, and immigration. They all pretty much stuck to their scripts.
What I found particularly grating was the final question to each candidate, which went something like this: "Is there any issue facing us, the U.S. that you feel that you don't know the answer to?"
I have worded that awkwardly, but none of the candidates, to my hearing, expressed any doubt about anything.
I consider myself to pretty well-informed about what is going on, politically, economically, socialy. And it scares me a bit that there are folks running for President who profess to be convinced that they are right about everything.

As an aside, I admire Nimh tremendously. His knowledge of U.S. politics (along with other countries) is amazing. His graphs are really pretty Yes, he is showing a liberal (Democrat) bias, in my mind on U.S. elections. But I think he always tries to be fair. Nimh rocks.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 09:26 pm
rjb, I agree 100%. nimh has more insight into American politics than 95% of Americans. I value his posts the most of all the posters, and listen to his recommendations and analysis. He more than rocks; he's the king.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 09:47 pm
realjohnboy wrote:

...
it scares me a bit that there are folks running for President who profess to be convinced that they are right about everything.
...

That scares me too! I am also scared by all the people who support such people.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 10:12 pm
Oops. I think I meant to be on another thread. Thank god I wasn't talking about football.
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Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Dec, 2007 10:34 pm
Close enough, rjb.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Dec, 2007 07:13 am
ican711nm wrote:
revel wrote:
Fair enough Ican; if at this same time next year there is no political progress; then what?

Ask me next year at this time whether or not there is any progress, because you see there are too many possibilities for next year whether there is or is not any progress, for me to bother speculating on them now.

However, I say this again: We must win and succeed in Iraq, because we Americans will suffer significant losses of our freedoms, if we do not win and succeed in Iraq.

The USA wins and succeeds in Iraq when the daily rate of violent deaths in Iraq decreases below 30, remains less than 30, while we are removing our troops, and remains less than 30 for at least a year after we have completed our departure.


I simply asked you if in fact at this time next year there is no political progress in Iraq; then what. I meant by that question; would you acknowledge that after the Iraqis being given a window of opportunity with the decrease in violence and they still didn't make any political progress at all; the chances are they won't? If there is no political progress; the violence will continue (or get worse) whether it is at a lower level than previously simply means a high level of violence but not as high as before. The point in the article if you bothered to read was that if things stay the same in Iraq as they are right now; Iraq will be a failed state or may even collapse regardless of whether we stay or leave.

Our freedom is not affected one way or another on whether we succeed in Iraq since it was never in any danger from there in the first place. I know you disagree; lets leave it at that.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Dec, 2007 01:22 pm
25 dead in Iraq bombings as Gates visits
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Dec, 2007 03:00 pm
revel wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
revel wrote:
Fair enough Ican; if at this same time next year there is no political progress; then what?

Ask me next year at this time whether or not there is any progress, because you see there are too many possibilities for next year whether there is or is not any progress, for me to bother speculating on them now.

However, I say this again: We must win and succeed in Iraq, because we Americans will suffer significant losses of our freedoms, if we do not win and succeed in Iraq.

The USA wins and succeeds in Iraq when the daily rate of violent deaths in Iraq decreases below 30, remains less than 30, while we are removing our troops, and remains less than 30 for at least a year after we have completed our departure.


I simply asked you if in fact at this time next year there is no political progress in Iraq; then what. I meant by that question; would you acknowledge that after the Iraqis being given a window of opportunity with the decrease in violence and they still didn't make any political progress at all; the chances are they won't? If there is no political progress; the violence will continue (or get worse) whether it is at a lower level than previously simply means a high level of violence but not as high as before. The point in the article if you bothered to read was that if things stay the same in Iraq as they are right now; Iraq will be a failed state or may even collapse regardless of whether we stay or leave.

...

It took Americans from 1783 (after the revolutionary war officially ended) to 1789 to write and adopt the constitution and get their act together--about 6 years.

The war in Iraq was over in 2003. At the end of 2008, the Iraqis will have had about 5 years.

We had basically only one ethnic group to unite. The Iraqis have a few more. The Iraqis have a tougher job to do. So let's give 'em at least one extra year for each ethnic group more than one that they have to unite.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Dec, 2007 03:08 pm
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/
A Month by Month, Daily Average of IBC's Count of Violent Deaths in Iraq, After April 30, 2007:

May = 3,755 / 31 = ……………….... 121 per day


…………….. Surge fully operational in June ……………..

June = 2,386 / 30 = …………......…. 80 per day.
July = 2,077 / 31 = ………….......... 67 per day.
August = 2,084 / 31 = ……...…..... 67 per day.
September = 1,333 / 30 = ………... 44 per day.
October = 1,962 / 31 = ……...….... 63 per day.
November = 1100 / 30 = …………….... 37 per day.
December = ----? / ? = …………….... ? per day.*
{0 = 85,188 - 85188}
January= ----? / 31 = ----? per day.**

… *Data currently available for only first 0 days of this month.
… **Data not yet available.
_____________________________________________________________________________

As of November 30, 2007, Total Iraq Violent Deaths since January 1, 2003 = 85,188
_____________________________________________________________________________

Daily Average Violent Deaths in Iraq--PRE and POST January 1, 2003:

PRE = 1/1/1979 - 12/31/2002 = 1,229,210/ 8,766 days = 140 per day;

POST = 1/1/2003 - 11/30/2007 = 85,188/1,795 days = ….. 48 per day;

PRE / POST = 140/48 = 2.95.
_____________________________________________________________________________

We must win and succeed in Iraq, because we Americans will suffer significant losses of our freedoms, if we do not win and succeed in Iraq.

The USA wins and succeeds in Iraq when the daily rate of violent deaths in Iraq decreases below 30, remains less than 30, while we are removing our troops, and remains less than 30 for at least a year after we have completed our departure.

============================================================

http://www.icasualties.org
MILITARY FATALITIES IN IRAQ BY MONTH

As of December 6, 2007 = 1723 days in Iraq.

Month .... Totals ……. US ….. UK …. OCC …. DA
12-2007 ..... 05 ………. 05……. 0 …….. 0 …… 0.83{=5/6}
11-2007 ...... 40 ……….. 37…….. 2 …….. 1 ……. 1
10-2007 ...... 40 ……….. 38 …... 1 …….. 1 ……. 1
9-2007 ........ 69 ……….. 65 ……. 2 …….. 2 ……. 2
8-2007 ........ 88 ……….. 84 ……. 4 …….. 0 ……. 3
7-2007 ........ 87 ……….. 78 ……. 8 …….. 1 ……. 3
6-2007 ….... 108 ………. 101 ……. 7 …….. 0 ……. 4
5-2007 ....... 131 ……… 126 …... 3 …….. 2 ……. 4
4-2007 ....... 117 …….. 104 …… 12 …….. 1 ……. 4
3-2007 ........ 82 ……….. 81 ….… 1 ……… 0 ……. 3
2-2007 ........ 84 ……….. 81 ….… 3 ……… 1 ……. 3
1-2007 ........ 86 ……….. 83 ….… 3 ……… 0 ……. 3

...

3-2003 ….... 92 ....... 65 ….... 27 …….... 0 ……. 3 …
Total .... 4192 …. 3886 …. 173 ..... 133 …… 2.43{=4192/1723}

US=United States
UK=United Kingdom
OCC=Other Coalition Countries
DA=Daily Average (for the month)
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Dec, 2007 04:11 pm
ican, Your repeated take up of cyberspace with casualty numbers means nothing; you miss the most salient points of this conflict. When all those Iraqi casualty numbers increase, it means a family member of friend is going to react in some negative way that will result in more people getting killed. You do not understand human nature and revenge.

22 die in suicide attacks in Iraq Those 22 dead also have family and friends who will react with more killings. This only continues to multiply; not decrease. You are an ignoramous with myopia.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Dec, 2007 10:15 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
ican, Your repeated take up of cyberspace with casualty numbers means nothing; you miss the most salient points of this conflict. When all those Iraqi casualty numbers increase, it means a family member of friend is going to react in some negative way that will result in more people getting killed. You do not understand human nature and revenge.

22 die in suicide attacks in Iraq Those 22 dead also have family and friends who will react with more killings. This only continues to multiply; not decrease. You are an ignoramous with myopia.

You, Cice, don't understand what it is that I understand, anymore than you understand what it is you don't understand.

The US and Iraq government objective is to reduce the murder of non-murderers in Iraq to a level that will enable the Iraq government to evolve to the point it can protect the non-murderers among its people with out US help. My posts of casualty number trends are simply my way of tracking US progress in reducing the rate murderers in Iraq are murdering non-murderers.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Dec, 2007 10:59 pm
Who are the "non-murderers" you freakin ignoramous?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Dec, 2007 03:54 am
http://i17.tinypic.com/6yz1jtf.jpg http://i18.tinypic.com/6lb3w1w.jpg

Source: Washington Post, 08.12.07, page A14
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Dec, 2007 03:55 am
Online: List of 'Willing' U.S. Allies Shrinks Steadily in Iraq
0 Replies
 
 

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