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THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, ELEVENTH THREAD

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2007 07:05 pm
old europe wrote:

...
No worries... That is pretty much the context. I found it quite enlightening, though, that ican pretty much admitted that he stopped posting the numbers because they didn't match his rosy predictions.

I still post the the monthly numbers as they become available. What I have stopped doing for a while is making predictions about future monthly numbers.

IBC's Count of Civilians Killed in Iraq since 1/1/2003

http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/

UPDATE OF IRAQ'S VIOLENT NON-COMBATANT DEATHS BY MONTH

January 2006 .... = 1267; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1267 + 36,859 = 38126;
Feb 2006 .......... = 1287; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1287 + 38126 = 39413;
March 2006 ........ = 1538; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1538 + 39413 = 40951;
April 2006 .......... = 1287; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1287 + 40951 = 42238;
May 2006 .......... = 1417; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1417 + 42238 = 43655;
June 2006 .......... = 2089; Total since January 1st 2003 = 2089 + 43655 = 45744;
July 2006 ........... = 2336; Total since January 1st 2003 = 2336 + 45744 = 48080;
August 2006 ....... = 1195; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1195 + 48080 = 49275;
September 2006 . = 1407; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1407 + 49275 = 50682;
October 2006 ..... = 2546; Total since January 1st 2003 = 2546 + 50682 = 53228;
November 2006 . = 3894; Total since January 1st 2003 = 3894 + 53228 = 57122;
December 2006 . = 3219; Total since January 1st 2003 = 3219 + 57122 = 60341;
{estimating January: January 1-28, 2007 = 2272; 2272 / 28 = 81.143; 81.143 x 3 = 244; 244 + 2272 = 2516}
January 2007 .... = 2516; Total since January 1st 2003 = 2516 + 60341 = 62857.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 02:26 pm
from ican's post :
Quote:
UPDATE OF IRAQ'S VIOLENT NON-COMBATANT DEATHS BY MONTH

January 2006 .... = 1267 ... January 2007 .... = 2516(est.)


is this great news or what ?
only about twice as many death in january 2007 when compared to
january 2006 !
this sure is progress , isn't it ?
hbg Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 04:41 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Monday, December 18, 2006
CNN poll: U.S. support for Iraq war falls to 31 percent
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Fewer than a third of Americans still support the war in Iraq, and more than half say they want U.S. troops out of the country within a year, according to a CNN poll released Monday.


ican, You're in the third; not even close to support for this war.

I disagree . I am not "in the third."

Quote:
Seventy-one percent of Americans say the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track.

I agree. America "is headed seriously off on the wrong track."

America's Congress "is headed seriously off on the wrong track," because its majority wants America to leave Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves without our help against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murderers) in Iraq. This Congressional leadership appears totally ignorant of the probable terrible consequences to America, if America leaves Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves without our help against MMONM in Iraq.

Quote:
Sixty-four percent of Americans call the war a mistake.

I agree. The way the war is being fought is a mistake.

After Saddam's regime was removed, the political and military tactics America chose to help the Iraqis establish a government that would be capable of defending the Iraqi people against MMONM were seriously flawed. Those mistakes must be corrected to enable the Iraqis to defend themselves without our help against MMONM in Iraq.

Quote:
U.S. support for Iraq war falls to 31 percent.

I agree with the majority who do not support the way the Iraq war is being fought.

I do not support the tactics America is currently using in this war to fight and remove the MMONM from Iraq. Iraq's borders must be sealed until the MMONM are removed from Iraq and the Iraqis are able to defend themselves without our help against MMONM in Iraq.

Quote:
More than half of Americans polled say they want U.S. troops out of the country within a year

I agree. I want U.S. troops out of the country within a year.

I want U.S. troops out in less than 3 months after the Iraqis are able to defend themselves without our help against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murderers) in Iraq.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 05:01 pm
hamburger wrote:
from ican's post :
Quote:
UPDATE OF IRAQ'S VIOLENT NON-COMBATANT DEATHS BY MONTH

January 2006 .... = 1267 ... January 2007 .... = 2516(est.)


is this great news or what ?
...
this sure is progress , isn't it ?
hbg ...

I don't think so! I don't think you think so. This, as I am sure you realize, is not in itself an indicator of progress in Iraq:

November 2006 = 3894;
December 2006 = 3219;
January 1-28, 2007 = 2272;
Maybe: January 2007 will = less than 3219.

But there would be progress IF in each month after December 2006 there were fewer non-murdering Iraqis murdered than in the previous month.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 05:09 pm
OK! LET'S TAKE OUR OWN POLL

Do you favor America leaving Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves, without our help, against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murders) in Iraq.

<> YES

<> NO
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 05:43 pm
POLLING REPORTS OVER TIME

Check out for yourself what I think are examples of inconsistent polling results:
Quote:
"Do you think the war in Iraq is a worthy cause or a hopeless cause?"

.

Worthy
Hopeless
Both (vol.)
Neither (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
2/12-15/07 39 56 2 2 1
.

"Would you favor or oppose Congress cutting all funding for the Iraq war?"

.

Favor
Oppose
Unsure
% % %
2/12-15/07 29 68 3
.

"Would you favor or oppose Congress cutting funding for the additional troops President Bush wants to send to Iraq?"

.

Favor
Oppose
Unsure
% % %
2/12-15/07 38 60 2
.

"Do you think sending more troops to Iraq would help stabilize the situation there, or not?"

.

Would Help
Would Not
Unsure
% % %
2/12-15/07 32 64 4

.

"Do you think most Iraqi civilians are sympathetic to the insurgency or opposed to the
insurgency?"

.

Sympathetic
Opposed
Unsure
% % %
2/12-15/07 22 66 12


...


"Do you approve or disapprove of the way [see below] are handling the situation in Iraq?"

.

Approve Disapprove Unsure

% % %
"The Democrats in Congress"

2/9-11/07
30 63 7
.

"The Republicans in Congress"

2/9-11/07
27 70 4
.

"As you may know, the Bush Administration has begun to significantly increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq to help stabilize the situation there. Do you favor or oppose this?"

.

Favor Oppose Unsure

% % %
2/9-11/07
38 60 2

...

"From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do now? Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq?"

.

Increase Keep the
Same Decrease Remove All Unsure
% % % % %
2/8-11/07
26 17 23 28 6

"Regardless of whether you think taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do, would you say that the U.S. is very likely to succeed in Iraq, somewhat likely to succeed, not very likely to succeed, or not at all likely to succeed in Iraq?"

.

Very
Likely Somewhat
Likely Not Very
Likely Not at
All Likely Unsure
% % % % %
2/8-11/07
13 37 26 21 3

...


"Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?"

.

Keep Troops Bring Home Unsure
% % %
2/7-11/07 42 53 5

...

"Regardless of what you think about the original decision to use military force in Iraq, do you now believe that the United States will definitely succeed, probably succeed, probably fail, or definitely fail in achieving its goals in Iraq?" N=769, MoE ± 4 (Form 2)

.

Definitely
Succeed Probably
Succeed Probably
Fail Definitely
Fail Unsure
% % % % %
2/7-11/07 7 40 34 12 7

...

"How much, if anything, have you read or heard about George W. Bush's new plan that will send an additional 21,000 U.S. troops to Iraq . . . ?"

.

A Lot A Little Nothing at All Unsure
% % % %
2/7-11/07
42 47 10 1
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 05:53 pm
ican continues to agree with most Americans about the mismanagement of this war, but disagrees with most American about pulling out of Iraq.

This guy is really confused! He wants to eat his cake and eat it too! Funny, that.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 06:01 pm
two sentences from one of ican's recent posts :

Quote:
After Saddam's regime was removed, the political and military tactics America chose to help the Iraqis establish a government that would be capable of defending the Iraqi people against MMONM were seriously flawed. Those mistakes must be corrected to enable the Iraqis to defend themselves without our help against MMONM in Iraq.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
indeed , it would be a noble goal "to help the Iraqis establish a government that would be capable of defending the Iraqi people against MMONM " .

the first question might be : can this be accomplished at all ?

the second question might be : is it possible to establish a time-frame for this ? might it be a year , five years or is it an indeterminate goal ;
i.e. "it takes as long as it takes" .
since it took centuries for europeans to come to live in (reasonable) peace with each other , is that what one might expect to happen in iraq ?

the third question might be : are those nations now trying to help the iraqis to live in peace which each other willing to make such a committment ; ie. "indeterminate " , if necessary .

the fourth question might be : will it help or hinder the iraqi people in their peace process to have (what is now) "an occupying force" ?

the fifth question(and my last one for now) might be : can an iraq state be established within the artificial borders and the tribal and religious divisions exesting now ?
would an iraq consisting of "states" oe "administrative districts" within the state of iraq (for lack of better words) stand a better chance of achieving peace and reducing the bloodshed now being caused (at least to some extent) by these divisions ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
as i stated , it is a noble goal - but noble goals cannot always be achieved .
the linked article from the national geographic gives a pretty good overview of what the "state" of iraq is composed of and the challenges to make it into a true "state" .
my thoughts of the day on this subject .
hbg



(see link for full article)
Quote:



http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/04/photogalleries/iraqdemographic/images/primary/Iraq_Demographics_n.jpg

Quote:
Iraq is a country that spills over its borders in all directions," says geographer Harm De Blij. Kurds spread from the north into three other nations, Iraqi Shiites blend into Khuzestan, an Arab area in predominantly Persian Iran, and Bedouin Arabs mix into Saudi Arabia in the southwest.




full article :
...IRAQ...
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 07:34 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
ican continues to agree with most Americans about the mismanagement of this war, but disagrees with most American about pulling out of Iraq.

This guy is really confused! He wants to eat his cake and eat it too! Funny, that.

Laughing "[ican] wants to eat his cake and eat it too!" Laughing

Most Americans Question

Definitely Succeed = 7%
Probably Succeed = 40%
Probably Fail = 34%
Definitely Fail = 12%
Unsure = 7%

Worthy = 39%
Hopeless = 56%
Both = 2%
Neither = 2%
Unsure=1%

Favor cutting funding additional troops = 38%
Oppose cutting funding additional troops = 60%
Unsure cutting funding additional troops = 2%

OK! LET'S TAKE OUR OWN POLL

Do you favor America leaving Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves, without our help, against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murders) in Iraq?

<> YES:

<> NO: ican,
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 07:56 pm
hamburger wrote:

...
indeed , it would be a noble goal "to help the Iraqis establish a government that would be capable of defending the Iraqi people against MMONM " .

the first question might be : can this be accomplished at all ?

To be determined!

the second question might be : is it possible to establish a time-frame for this ? might it be a year , five years or is it an indeterminate goal ;
i.e. "it takes as long as it takes" .

It takes as long as it takes!

since it took centuries for europeans to come to live in (reasonable) peace with each other , is that what one might expect to happen in iraq ?

To be determined!

the third question might be : are those nations now trying to help the iraqis to live in peace which each other willing to make such a committment ; ie. "indeterminate " , if necessary .

To be determined!

the fourth question might be : will it help or hinder the iraqi people in their peace process to have (what is now) "an occupying force" ?

Probably beats having another Saddam-like tyrant murdering them!

the fifth question(and my last one for now) might be : can an iraq state be established within the artificial borders and the tribal and religious divisions exesting now ?

To be determined!

[sixth question] would an iraq consisting of "states" oe "administrative districts" within the state of iraq (for lack of better words) stand a better chance of achieving peace and reducing the bloodshed now being caused (at least to some extent) by these divisions ?

To be determined!

as i stated , it is a noble goal - but noble goals cannot always be achieved .

Seventh question: Can this noble goal be achieved?

To be determined!

...

Eighth question: What are the most probable consequences of leaving Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves, without our help, against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murderers) in Iraq?

I pray we do not have to find out the hard way!

One thing we know for certain: we don't know anything for certain except that we don't know anything else for certain.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 07:59 pm
Failure is easy to forecast and hard to endure, so its better to try to succeed than try to fail.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 08:17 pm
"Try to fail" is an oxymoron in the case of Iraq. It's long been a failure. The only thing remaining is the question of how to minimize that failure so we don't end up increasing our losses of men and treasure.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 08:49 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
"Try to fail" is an oxymoron in the case of Iraq. It's long been a failure.

It has long been neither a success or a failure. But it has long been a pain in the butt.

The only thing remaining is the question of how to minimize that failure so we don't end up increasing our losses of men and treasure.

OK, I'll go with part of that: "how to minimize that failure?"

Or better said: How to minimize that failure so we minimize the future increases in our losses of men and treasure.

You see, either way, pursuit of success, or pursuit of minimizing losses, extracts the price of some losses. The goal with Iraq ought to be pursuit of minimizing our losses.

You appear to me to think we minimize our losses by minimizing our failure.

On the other hand, I think we minimize our losses by maximizing our will to win.

Perhaps we are both slaves to our personal experience and/or our individual DNAs.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 09:37 pm
ican, It's already a failure. That's the reason why nobody has any good solutions to extract ourselves out of this screwed up mess.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2007 11:26 pm
Blast may hint at growing Sunni conflict
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Feb, 2007 01:19 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
ican, It's already a failure.
...

I'll go with that well known American philosopher Smile , Yogi Berra:

"It ain't over 'til it's over."

My paraphrase: It ain't a failure 'til it's failed.

It won't be a failure until we stop trying to succeed.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Feb, 2007 01:41 pm
al-Sadr: Baghdad security plan is doomed
By SINAN SALAHEDDIN, Associated Press Writer
52 minutes ago



BAGHDAD, Iraq - The leader of Iraq's biggest Shiite militia complained Sunday that bombs "continue to explode" in Baghdad and that U.S.-led security crackdown is doomed to fail, issuing a statement the same day a suicide attacker struck outside a college campus, killing at least 41 people.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Feb, 2007 02:21 pm
COME ON! WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID OF? LET'S TAKE OUR OWN POLL!
Do you favor America leaving Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves, without our help, against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murders) in Iraq.
YES = ?
NO = ican, ?
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Feb, 2007 02:25 pm
I don't see that we are so good a job at defending Iraqis suicide bombers. The Shiites took the militias off the streets but the violence continues. What in the world is the military doing over there, twiddling their thumbs? Why aren't they going after the insurgents?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Feb, 2007 02:34 pm
revel wrote:
I don't see that we are so good a job at defending Iraqis suicide bombers. The Shiites took the militias off the streets but the violence continues. What in the world is the military doing over there, twiddling their thumbs? Why aren't they going after the insurgents?

Do you favor America leaving Iraq before the Iraqis are able to defend themselves, without our help, against MMONM (i.e., Mass Murderers Of Non-Murders) in Iraq?
0 Replies
 
 

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