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THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, ELEVENTH THREAD

 
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 06:50 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
What makes you think the violence will stop based on the past five year history?

Do you know that one-third of the Iraqi children are literally starving?

How will our staying improve the current killing fields and the starving children?


Why don't you and your family volunteer if you believe success is at hand?


Why dont you and your family volunteer to go to Iraq and work to help the children if you think its that bad?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 06:54 pm
old europe wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
old europe wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
achieving success in Iraq


ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"

The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


Sounds pretty much like the situation before the invasion.

Don't you want to add something? Nothing about democracy, or freedom of speech, or liberty, or some such? Or maybe a restored infrastructure? Or oil revenues that will pay for the cost of the war? Nothing?

No! I do not want to add anything. Feel free yourself to add something.

I think if success as I have defined it is achieved, the things you suggest will be accomplished afterward by the Iraq government with our political/technical but not military assistance.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 07:04 pm
hamburger wrote:
ican wrote :

Quote:
al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


since many new al qaeda recruits seem to be entering iraq from other countries (such as iran) on a regular basis , why don't the U.S. troops close those borders and deny al qaeda access to iraq ?
by keeping insurgents - of any stripe - out of iraq , it would no doubt be easier to then go after the terrorists inside iraq .

if new insurgents are allowed to enter iraq (almost freely , i understand) ,
how would it be otherwise posssible to reduce the influx ?
at least hbg

Hamburger, at the moment I'm not discussing how to achieve success in Iraq. I'm discussing only A or B consequences.

However, your questions and comments deserve a response now.

I agree that the best way to deny sanctuary to terrorists of any stripe coming into Iraq is to close the Iraq borders with all its neighbors.

You ask why don't we do this? I don't know. I suspect we'll have to wait until Bush is replaced before this will happen. That assumes his replacement is less incompetent than is Bush.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 07:11 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
What makes you think the violence will stop based on the past five year history?

Do you know that one-third of the Iraqi children are literally starving?

How will our staying improve the current killing fields and the starving children?


Why don't you and your family volunteer if you believe success is at hand?

Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad

A = the consequences of our leaving without achieving success in Iraq.

B = the consequences of our staying until achieving success in Iraq.

Which consequences, A or B, do you think will result in the fewest mass murders of Iraqi non-murderers over the next ten years, and why do you think so?

Which consequences, A or B, do you think will result in the fewest mass murders of American non-murderers over the next ten years, and why do you think so?

Quote:
old europe wrote:
ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"


ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 07:19 pm
ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


Did you share this information with Bush and general Petraeus?
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 07:24 pm
Quote:
old europe wrote:
ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"


ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


ican :
how do you propose the iraqi government go about achieving the goals you have set out for them ?
if the U.S. army with all its sophisticated armaments is not able to achieve it , how are the iraqis to do it ?
there does not appear to be a unified army/police yet , so how are the iraqis to achieve it - by praying for help ?
surely the U.S. army/goverment should have been able to allow a stable government to be formed - and from that could follow the formation of a stable police and army force .
that it can be done , was shown by the allies in germany after WW II . are there any good reasons why similar results cannot be achieved in iraq ?
hbg
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 07:30 pm
hbg: that it can be done , was shown by the allies in germany after WW II . are there any good reasons why similar results cannot be achieved in iraq ?

The big difference between Germany and Iraq is.....
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 08:55 pm
hamburger wrote:
Quote:
old europe wrote:
ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"


ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


ican :
how do you propose the iraqi government go about achieving the goals you have set out for them ?

First, the Iraq government must achieve consensus among its members that mutual cooperation is in all their mutual self interests. Until that happens--perhaps a year or two from now--they are not going to be able to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers.

if the U.S. army with all its sophisticated armaments is not able to achieve it , how are the iraqis to do it ?
there does not appear to be a unified army/police yet , so how are the iraqis to achieve it - by praying for help ?
surely the U.S. army/goverment should have been able to allow a stable government to be formed - and from that could follow the formation of a stable police and army force .
that it can be done , was shown by the allies in germany after WW II . are there any good reasons why similar results cannot be achieved in iraq ?

No, there are not any good reasons why similar results cannot be achieved in Iraq. But it will take much more time in Iraq's case, because Iraq, unlike Germany's case, has to cope with al-Qaeda, a group of suicidal mass murderers dedicated to driving out the US military any way it can--including but not limited to mass murdering fellow Muslims.
hbg
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Aug, 2007 08:57 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


Did you share this information with Bush and general Petraeus?

Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad

A = the consequences of our leaving without achieving success in Iraq.

B = the consequences of our staying until achieving success in Iraq.

Which consequences, A or B, do you think will result in the fewest mass murders of Iraqi non-murderers over the next ten years, and why do you think so?

Which consequences, A or B, do you think will result in the fewest mass murders of American non-murderers over the next ten years, and why do you think so?

Quote:
old europe wrote:
ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"


ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 07:10 am
The War as We Saw It

VIEWED from Iraq at the tail end of a 15-month deployment, the political debate in Washington is indeed surreal. Counterinsurgency is, by definition, a competition between insurgents and counterinsurgents for the control and support of a population. To believe that Americans, with an occupying force that long ago outlived its reluctant welcome, can win over a recalcitrant local population and win this counterinsurgency is far-fetched. As responsible infantrymen and noncommissioned officers with the 82nd Airborne Division soon heading back home, we are skeptical of recent press coverage portraying the conflict as increasingly manageable and feel it has neglected the mounting civil, political and social unrest we see every day. (Obviously, these are our personal views and should not be seen as official within our chain of command.)

The claim that we are increasingly in control of the battlefields in Iraq is an assessment arrived at through a flawed, American-centered framework. Yes, we are militarily superior, but our successes are offset by failures elsewhere. What soldiers call the "battle space" remains the same, with changes only at the margins. It is crowded with actors who do not fit neatly into boxes: Sunni extremists, Al Qaeda terrorists, Shiite militiamen, criminals and armed tribes. This situation is made more complex by the questionable loyalties and Janus-faced role of the Iraqi police and Iraqi Army, which have been trained and armed at United States taxpayers' expense.

A few nights ago, for example, we witnessed the death of one American soldier and the critical wounding of two others when a lethal armor-piercing explosive was detonated between an Iraqi Army checkpoint and a police one. Local Iraqis readily testified to American investigators that Iraqi police and Army officers escorted the triggermen and helped plant the bomb. These civilians highlighted their own predicament: had they informed the Americans of the bomb before the incident, the Iraqi Army, the police or the local Shiite militia would have killed their families.

As many grunts will tell you, this is a near-routine event. Reports that a majority of Iraqi Army commanders are now reliable partners can be considered only misleading rhetoric. The truth is that battalion commanders, even if well meaning, have little to no influence over the thousands of obstinate men under them, in an incoherent chain of command, who are really loyal only to their militias.

Similarly, Sunnis, who have been underrepresented in the new Iraqi armed forces, now find themselves forming militias, sometimes with our tacit support. Sunnis recognize that the best guarantee they may have against Shiite militias and the Shiite-dominated government is to form their own armed bands. We arm them to aid in our fight against Al Qaeda.

However, while creating proxies is essential in winning a counterinsurgency, it requires that the proxies are loyal to the center that we claim to support. Armed Sunni tribes have indeed become effective surrogates, but the enduring question is where their loyalties would lie in our absence. The Iraqi government finds itself working at cross purposes with us on this issue because it is justifiably fearful that Sunni militias will turn on it should the Americans leave.

In short, we operate in a bewildering context of determined enemies and questionable allies, one where the balance of forces on the ground remains entirely unclear. (In the course of writing this article, this fact became all too clear: one of us, Staff Sergeant Murphy, an Army Ranger and reconnaissance team leader, was shot in the head during a "time-sensitive target acquisition mission" on Aug. 12; he is expected to survive and is being flown to a military hospital in the United States.) While we have the will and the resources to fight in this context, we are effectively hamstrung because realities on the ground require measures we will always refuse ?- namely, the widespread use of lethal and brutal force.

Given the situation, it is important not to assess security from an American-centered perspective. The ability of, say, American observers to safely walk down the streets of formerly violent towns is not a resounding indicator of security. What matters is the experience of the local citizenry and the future of our counterinsurgency. When we take this view, we see that a vast majority of Iraqis feel increasingly insecure and view us as an occupation force that has failed to produce normalcy after four years and is increasingly unlikely to do so as we continue to arm each warring side.

Coupling our military strategy to an insistence that the Iraqis meet political benchmarks for reconciliation is also unhelpful. The morass in the government has fueled impatience and confusion while providing no semblance of security to average Iraqis. Leaders are far from arriving at a lasting political settlement. This should not be surprising, since a lasting political solution will not be possible while the military situation remains in constant flux.

The Iraqi government is run by the main coalition partners of the Shiite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, with Kurds as minority members. The Shiite clerical establishment formed the alliance to make sure its people did not succumb to the same mistake as in 1920: rebelling against the occupying Western force (then the British) and losing what they believed was their inherent right to rule Iraq as the majority. The qualified and reluctant welcome we received from the Shiites since the invasion has to be seen in that historical context. They saw in us something useful for the moment.

Now that moment is passing, as the Shiites have achieved what they believe is rightfully theirs. Their next task is to figure out how best to consolidate the gains, because reconciliation without consolidation risks losing it all. Washington's insistence that the Iraqis correct the three gravest mistakes we made ?- de-Baathification, the dismantling of the Iraqi Army and the creation of a loose federalist system of government ?- places us at cross purposes with the government we have committed to support.

Political reconciliation in Iraq will occur, but not at our insistence or in ways that meet our benchmarks. It will happen on Iraqi terms when the reality on the battlefield is congruent with that in the political sphere. There will be no magnanimous solutions that please every party the way we expect, and there will be winners and losers. The choice we have left is to decide which side we will take. Trying to please every party in the conflict ?- as we do now ?- will only ensure we are hated by all in the long run.

At the same time, the most important front in the counterinsurgency, improving basic social and economic conditions, is the one on which we have failed most miserably. Two million Iraqis are in refugee camps in bordering countries. Close to two million more are internally displaced and now fill many urban slums. Cities lack regular electricity, telephone services and sanitation. "Lucky" Iraqis live in gated communities barricaded with concrete blast walls that provide them with a sense of communal claustrophobia rather than any sense of security we would consider normal.

In a lawless environment where men with guns rule the streets, engaging in the banalities of life has become a death-defying act. Four years into our occupation, we have failed on every promise, while we have substituted Baath Party tyranny with a tyranny of Islamist, militia and criminal violence. When the primary preoccupation of average Iraqis is when and how they are likely to be killed, we can hardly feel smug as we hand out care packages. As an Iraqi man told us a few days ago with deep resignation, "We need security, not free food."

In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are ?- an army of occupation ?- and force our withdrawal.

Until that happens, it would be prudent for us to increasingly let Iraqis take center stage in all matters, to come up with a nuanced policy in which we assist them from the margins but let them resolve their differences as they see fit. This suggestion is not meant to be defeatist, but rather to highlight our pursuit of incompatible policies to absurd ends without recognizing the incongruities.

We need not talk about our morale. As committed soldiers, we will see this mission through.

Buddhika Jayamaha is an Army specialist. Wesley D. Smith is a sergeant. Jeremy Roebuck is a sergeant. Omar Mora is a sergeant. Edward Sandmeier is a sergeant. Yance T. Gray is a staff sergeant. Jeremy A. Murphy is a staff sergeant.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 07:38 am
These paragraphs summerizes revel's post very well:


Given the situation, it is important not to assess security from an American-centered perspective. The ability of, say, American observers to safely walk down the streets of formerly violent towns is not a resounding indicator of security. What matters is the experience of the local citizenry and the future of our counterinsurgency. When we take this view, we see that a vast majority of Iraqis feel increasingly insecure and view us as an occupation force that has failed to produce normalcy after four years and is increasingly unlikely to do so as we continue to arm each warring side.

Coupling our military strategy to an insistence that the Iraqis meet political benchmarks for reconciliation is also unhelpful. The morass in the government has fueled impatience and confusion while providing no semblance of security to average Iraqis. Leaders are far from arriving at a lasting political settlement. This should not be surprising, since a lasting political solution will not be possible while the military situation remains in constant flux.

****

In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are ?- an army of occupation ?- and force our withdrawal.

Until that happens, it would be prudent for us to increasingly let Iraqis take center stage in all matters, to come up with a nuanced policy in which we assist them from the margins but let them resolve their differences as they see fit. This suggestion is not meant to be defeatist, but rather to highlight our pursuit of incompatible policies to absurd ends without recognizing the incongruities.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 07:43 am
This is for ican posted by McT from another thread: There was a piece in my paper today which reminded us of how poor and how damaging and now how alienated Mr Bush is, even among Republicans.
Let me see if I can bring it to you.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 08:01 am
The Iraqi government - both federal and state - are in shambles.

ican thinks the only "success" is to reduce the violence in Iraq to less than 1000 per month. ican seems to live in the same world as Bush; in another reality.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 10:17 am
Revel, that's a great post, thanks.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 04:47 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi government - both federal and state - are in shambles.

ican thinks the only "success" is to reduce the violence in Iraq to less than 1000 per month. ican seems to live in the same world as Bush; in another reality.

Cice, that statement about what I think is false and you know it.

Quote:
old europe wrote:
ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"


ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


(1) The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month;

(2) the Iraq Government continues for one year [after the occurrence of (1)] to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers;

(3) al-Qaeda continues for one year [after the occurrence of (1)] to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.

As you know that's three conditions for success in Iraq and not "only" one.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 04:56 pm
ican711nm wrote:
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi government - both federal and state - are in shambles.

ican thinks the only "success" is to reduce the violence in Iraq to less than 1000 per month. ican seems to live in the same world as Bush; in another reality.

Cice, that statement about what I think is false and you know it.

Quote:
old europe wrote:
ican, how would you define "success in Iraq?"


ican711nm wrote:
The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month; the Iraq Government continues for one year to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers; and al-Qaeda continues for one year to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.


(1) The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month;

(2) the Iraq Government continues for one year [after the occurrence of (1)] to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers;

(3) al-Qaeda continues for one year [after the occurrence of (1)] to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.

As you know that's three conditions for success in Iraq and not "only" one.


You might as well have ten, or fifty; none of those conditions are likely to happen, at all. And certainly not within a workable time frame for the US.

I don't know how you would even measure the third, as there's no real way to tell if members of AQ have sanctuary in one's country or not.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 05:02 pm
revel wrote:
The War as We Saw It

VIEWED from Iraq at the tail end of a 15-month deployment, the political debate in Washington is indeed surreal.

...

In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are ?- an army of occupation ?- and force our withdrawal.

...


Malarkey!

Force is not required. All the Iraq government has to do is ask the US military to leave. Then our military will be happy to begin leaving as rapidly as they can.

By the way, it is al-Qaeda that is robbing the Iraqi non-murderers of their self-respect--not the US. They will not reclaim or gain their self-respect until they finally remove al-Qaeda from Iraq.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 05:15 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:


...

You might as well have ten, or fifty; none of those conditions are likely to happen, at all. And certainly not within a workable time frame for the US.

How do you know?

I don't know how you would even measure the third, as there's no real way to tell if members of AQ have sanctuary in one's country or not.

We learned that al-Qaeda gained sanctuary in Afghanistan in May 1996 before 9/11. We learned al-Qaeda gained sanctuary in Iraq in December 2001 before our invasion of Iraq. As for the rest of al-Qaeda's sanctuaries we learned about some of them before their first mass murder of non-murderers, and some we learned after. They are apparently difficult to hide.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 05:22 pm
Looks like ican stands alone in his stance on Iraq, and what he calls "success." LOL


US military looks to reduce role in Iraq



By ROBERT BURNS and LOLITA BALDOR, Associated Press Writers
2 hours, 10 minutes ago



WASHINGTON - U.S. military officials are narrowing the range of Iraq strategy options and appear to be focusing on reducing the U.S. combat role in 2008 while increasing training of Iraqi forces, a senior military official told The Associated Press on Monday.

The military has not yet developed a plan for a substantial withdrawal of forces next year. But officials are laying the groundwork for possible overtures to Turkey and Jordan on using their territory to move some troops and equipment out of Iraq, the official said. The main exit would remain Kuwait, but additional routes would make it easier and more secure for U.S. troops leaving western and northern Iraq.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because internal deliberations are ongoing, emphasized that the discussions do not prejudge decisions yet to be made by President Bush. Those decisions include long to maintain the current U.S. troop buildup and when to make the transition to a larger Iraqi combat role.

It is widely anticipated that the five extra Army brigades that were sent to the Baghdad area this year will be withdrawn by late next summer. But it is far less clear whether the Bush administration will follow that immediately with additional drawdowns, as many Democrats in Congress are advocating.

Bush has mentioned publicly that he likes the idea, first proposed late last year by the Iraq Study Group, of switching the emphasis of U.S. military efforts from mainly combat to mainly support roles. But he also has said that this should not happen until Baghdad in particular is stable enough to enable Iraqi political leaders to make hard choices about reconciling rival interests among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.

BTW, it says nothing about we will wait until the killings go below 1000 per month.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2007 05:24 pm
I don't see any of ican's 3 conditions even mentioned.

(1) The mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers is reduced to less than 1,000 per month;

(2) the Iraq Government continues for one year [after the occurrence of (1)] to reduce the mass murder of Iraqi non-murderers;

(3) al-Qaeda continues for one year [after the occurrence of (1)] to be denied sanctuary any where in Iraq by the Iraq government.
0 Replies
 
 

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