Cycloptichorn wrote:You seem to only have a passing acquaintance with statistics, Ican. You simple can't extrapolate information like that from such a limited base of original knowledge.
If there are at least 340 killers here now, why would leaving Iraq increase the chances that they would attack - why haven't they already attacked?
Cycloptichorn
The US leaving Iraq without succeeding would dramatically increase al-Qaeda's confidence that the US could be defeated merely by relentless suicidal mass murders of American non-murderers. It would also increase
my confidence that's true.
MY HYPOTHESES
My hypotheses are not what you keep trying to make them. My hypotheses are IF AMERICA LEAVES IRAQ BEFORE SUCCEEDING:
(1) Al-Qaeda WOULD train at least 340 suicidal mass murderers per year each capable of killing at least 150 American non-murderers;
(2) Al-Qaeda WOULD train at least 340 suicidal mass murderers per year to enter America;
(3) Al-Qaeda WOULD enter at least 340 suicidal mass murderers per year into America.
MATHEMATICAL IMPLICATIONS OF MY HYPOTHESES.
If my hypotheses are true and we leave Iraq before we succeed in Iraq, then after that at least 51,000 American non-murders will be murdered per year by al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers.
WHAT EVIDENCE DO WE HAVE THAT MY HYPOTHESES ARE TRUE?
Al-Qaeda has declared its intention to defeat America in order to prevent America from destroying Islam as al-Qaeda defines Islam. Based on passed performance, Al Qaeda says what it does and does what it says.
Over the past year, using suicidal bombs of one kind or another, al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers murdered about 25,000 Iraqi non-murderers. Based on available data that amounts to about 5 deaths per al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderer. That required at least 5,000 al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers over the past year. If al-Qaeda can recruit and train 5,000 al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers over the past year, then if America vacates Iraq before succeeding, surely al-Qaeda will then be able to recruit, train, and transport at least 340 al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers per year to America.
If 19 al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers can murder almost 3,000 in less than 3 hours, or an average of more than 150 a piece within 3 hours, then surely 340 al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers can do at least the same.
Even if my hypothesized numbers were double the actual numbers, 51,000 / 2 = 25,500 American non-murderers per year murdered by al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers is intolerable. On the otherhand if my hypothesized numbers were half the actual numbers, then there would be 102,000 American non-murderers per year murdered by al-Qaeda suicidal mass murderers ... horrible to contemplate.
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