Democrats are within range of capturing a Senate majority, but face potentially decisive resistance from rural voters in three critical Republican-leaning states, a series of Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls have found.
If Democrats can't win the Senate races in at least two of those three states -- Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia -- they are unlikely to control the chamber.
The surveys of five hotly contested races show Democrats leading in bids to claim Republican-held seats in Ohio and Virginia. Republicans, however, lead in Missouri and Tennessee, both also held by the GOP.
In the fifth race surveyed, Democrats maintain a slim advantage in New Jersey, where Republicans are pressing their strongest bid to gain a Democratic seat.
Underscoring the election's volatility, the candidate leads in all of these contests fall within the margin of error for the polls.
Democrats need a net gain of six seats for a Senate majority. Polls in the other key Senate races show Democratic challengers holding consistent, though in some cases narrow, leads against GOP incumbents in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Montana.
If Democrats captured those three seats, won Ohio and held New Jersey, Senate control would hinge on the races in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.
If Democrats win two of these three races, they would have a 51-49 Senate majority. If they win just one, the Senate would be split 50-50 and Vice President Dick Cheney would provide the tie-breaking vote to organize the chamber for Republicans.
The new surveys underscore the trends creating opportunities for Democrats, particularly anxiety about the Iraq war and erosion of support for the GOP among centrists. But the poll findings also highlight the obstacles the Democrats face in converting the national current of discontent into gains in conservative-leaning states.
Especially challenging for Democrats is breaking the GOP grip on socially conservative voters in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. In each state, the surveys found that despite extensive doubts about the country's direction, Republicans are still amassing strong margins among rural voters and whites who regularly attend church.
The polls were conducted Friday through Monday.
In most of the states, results are generally in line with other surveys. But in Virginia, this is the first major poll to show Democratic challenger Jim Webb leading Sen. George Allen.
Democrats enjoy many of the same advantages across the five battlegrounds. Top among them are consistent strains of dissatisfaction with the country's direction and the war in Iraq.
In each of the states, three-fifths of the voters or more said they believe the country is on the wrong track. In each state, more voters said they preferred that Democrats rather than Republicans control a majority in Congress after the election.
Enduring Republican strengths remain a huge barrier for Democrats, especially in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, but even in these states, the Republican nominee is capturing a smaller share of support among conservatives than the Democrat is among liberals.
snood, you're killing me.
