WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER?

FreeDuck wrote:

Thank you, ican. That will make it so much simpler to find your prediction after election day.

You're welcome, FreeDuck!

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Quote:

Democrats are within range of capturing a Senate majority, but face potentially decisive resistance from rural voters in three critical Republican-leaning states, a series of Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls have found.

If Democrats can't win the Senate races in at least two of those three states -- Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia -- they are unlikely to control the chamber.
The surveys of five hotly contested races show Democrats leading in bids to claim Republican-held seats in Ohio and Virginia. Republicans, however, lead in Missouri and Tennessee, both also held by the GOP.

In the fifth race surveyed, Democrats maintain a slim advantage in New Jersey, where Republicans are pressing their strongest bid to gain a Democratic seat.

Underscoring the election's volatility, the candidate leads in all of these contests fall within the margin of error for the polls.

Democrats need a net gain of six seats for a Senate majority. Polls in the other key Senate races show Democratic challengers holding consistent, though in some cases narrow, leads against GOP incumbents in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Montana.

If Democrats captured those three seats, won Ohio and held New Jersey, Senate control would hinge on the races in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.

If Democrats win two of these three races, they would have a 51-49 Senate majority. If they win just one, the Senate would be split 50-50 and Vice President Dick Cheney would provide the tie-breaking vote to organize the chamber for Republicans.

The new surveys underscore the trends creating opportunities for Democrats, particularly anxiety about the Iraq war and erosion of support for the GOP among centrists. But the poll findings also highlight the obstacles the Democrats face in converting the national current of discontent into gains in conservative-leaning states.

Especially challenging for Democrats is breaking the GOP grip on socially conservative voters in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. In each state, the surveys found that despite extensive doubts about the country's direction, Republicans are still amassing strong margins among rural voters and whites who regularly attend church.

The polls were conducted Friday through Monday.

In most of the states, results are generally in line with other surveys. But in Virginia, this is the first major poll to show Democratic challenger Jim Webb leading Sen. George Allen.

Democrats enjoy many of the same advantages across the five battlegrounds. Top among them are consistent strains of dissatisfaction with the country's direction and the war in Iraq.

In each of the states, three-fifths of the voters or more said they believe the country is on the wrong track. In each state, more voters said they preferred that Democrats rather than Republicans control a majority in Congress after the election.

Enduring Republican strengths remain a huge barrier for Democrats, especially in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, but even in these states, the Republican nominee is capturing a smaller share of support among conservatives than the Democrat is among liberals.
Quote:
Source

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(From page A4 of today's Chicago Tribune

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Thank God Bush has a plan for winning in Iraq ...
........

......
as long as we "stay the course"..

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parados wrote:

Thank God Bush has a plan for winning in Iraq ...
........

......
as long as we "stay the course"..

However, it will not be revealed until 2009

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Madison32 wrote:

RCP SENATE RATINGS_ REAL CLEAR POLITICS

Dems Need Six For Control

RCP Avgs Project: Dems + 4

---------------------------------

TOSS UPS
MO: Talent (R) | Chart
MT: Burns (R) | Chart
NJ: Menendez (D) | Chart
TN: Open (R) | Chart
VA: Allen (R) | Chart
LEANS DEMOCRAT
MD: Open (D) | Chart
MI: Stabenow (D) | Chart
OH: DeWine (R) | Chart
PA: Santorum (R) | Chart
RI: Chafee (R) | Chart
LEANS REPUBLICAN
AZ: Kyl (R) | Chart
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
MN: Open (D) | Chart
WA: Cantwell (D) | Chart
LIKELY LIEBERMAN
CT: Lieberman

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This year the U.S. ethanol industry will grow to provide more than 5 billion gallons of clean burning, renewable fuel to our country's supply.

Ethanol can be used as fuel for vehicles with spark ignition (not diesel) engines either alone (E100) or as an additive to gasoline. Special fuel system design is required to accommodate fuel with more than 10% ethanol, and in addition, for reliable starting at low ambient temperature, a special engine starting system is required to accommodate more than 30% ethanol. In the United States, the color yellow (symbolizing the color of corn) has become associated with the fuel and is commonly used on fuel pumps and labels.

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snood, you're killing me.

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What is that old saw? If someone is bent on hanging themselves, give them more rope? If someone wants to shoot themselves in the foot, get out of the way?

Well, just let Bush hold more news conferences and the Repugs play more ads like they did in Tennessee, and with ole Rush by their side - the Dems will surely win both houses.

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Not if they sit and try to coast. They - we - need to do something over the next two weeks. You better believe the Repubs will be working overtime.

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As God is our Witless, we will!

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Lash wrote:

As God is our Witless, we will!

That's funny Lash. (That was a typo, right?)

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Lash wrote:

As God is our Witless, we will!

√

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Was it a typo? Funny, in any case.

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Real Clear Politics- Poll

RCP HOUSE RATINGS

Dems Need 15 For Control
-------GOP HELD SEATS-------

LEANS DEMOCRAT (9)
TX-22: Open (DeLay)
AZ-8: Open (Kolbe)
FL-16: Open (Foley)
IN-8: Hostettler
PA-10: Sherwood
CO-7: Open (Beauprez)
IA-1: (Open (Nussle)
OH-18: Open (Ney)
PA-7: Weldon
TOSS UPS (15)
NY-24: Open (Boehlert)
OH-15: Pryce
IN-2: Chocola
NY-26: Reynolds
NM-1: Wilson
IN-9: Sodrel
NC-11: Taylor
CT-4: Shays
PA-6: Gerlach
IL-6: Open (Hyde)
MN-6: Open (Kennedy)
FL-13: Open (Harris)
CT-2: Simmons
PA-8: Fitzpatrick
WA-8: Reichert
LEANS REPUBLICAN (21)
FL-22: Shaw
OH-2: Pryce
OH-1: Chabot
CO-4: Musgrave
KY-4: Davis
WI-8: Open (Green)
CT-5: Johnson
VA-2: Drake
NV-2: Open (Gibbons)
NY-20: Sweeney
CA-11: Pombo
NY-29: Kuhl
NJ-7: Ferguson
AZ-1: Renzi
CA-4: Doolittle
NH-2: Bass
PA-4: Hart
NV-3: Porter
AZ-5: Hayworth
MN-1: Gutknecht
KY-3: Northup
-------DEM HELD SEATS-------
LEANS DEMOCRAT (5)
IL-8: Bean
GA-12: Barrow
GA-8: Marshall
VT-AL: Open (Sanders)
IA-3: Boswell

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I hope the Dems have learned that lesson well. Merely being reactive is the kiss of death. Have to be proactive all over the place in these last two weeks, and never let more than 24 hours go by without responding, forcefully, to everything and anything that needs a response or rebuttal.

Ford ad responded well to RNC's ads - an opening to him which would not have occurred without those ads of theirs in the first place. Well played.

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ehBeth wrote:

au1929 wrote:
ehBeth

Quote:
soooooooo, who's gonna win?

Those who get the most votes

I was kinda sorta hoping that someone'd be interested in discussing the topic suggested in the thread title.

oh well.

Have you seen the prediction threads? People make their prediction of what the numbers will be. Cyclo started a good one on behalf of realjohnboy, called something like Putting your money where your mouth is; Joefrom Chicago also started one, on the same day, that got a few other predictions.

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WASHINGTON - The 2006 election is shaping up to be a repeat of 1994. This time, Democrats are favored to sweep Republicans from power in the House after a dozen years of GOP rule.

Less than two weeks before the Nov. 7 election, the latest Associated Press-AOL News poll found that likely voters overwhelmingly prefer Democrats over Republicans. They are angry at President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress, and say Iraq and the economy are their top issues.

At the same time, fickle middle-class voters are embracing the Democratic Party and fleeing the GOP ?- just as they abandoned Democrats a dozen years ago and ushered in an era of Republican control.

"I don't think the Republican Party represents what I stand for. The guys I golf with, we're in the middle class, we're getting hurt," says Joseph Altland, 73, a retired teacher in York, Pa. He is a registered Republican but says he is considering becoming an independent.

The AP-AOL News telephone poll of 2,000 adults, 970 of whom are likely voters, was conducted by Ipsos from Oct. 20-25.

In it, 56 percent of likely voters said they would vote to send a Democrat to the House and 37 percent said they would vote Republican ?- a 19-point difference. Democrats had a 10-point edge in early October.

"I don't care if I vote for Happy the Clown, just so it's not who's there now," said Mary Nyilas, 51, an independent voter from Cologne, N.J. She said she would do everything she could to "vote against the powers that put us in this situation" in Iraq.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061027/ap_on_el_ge/election_ap_poll

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The divisive debate over gay marriage, which played a prominent role in 2004 campaigns but this year largely faded from view, erupted anew on Thursday as President Bush and Republicans across the country tried to use a court ruling in New Jersey to rally dispirited conservatives to the polls.

Wednesday's ruling, in which the New Jersey Supreme Court decided that gay couples are entitled to the same legal rights and financial benefits as heterosexual couples, had immediate ripple effects, especially in Senate races in some of the eight states where voters are considering constitutional amendments to ban gay marriage.

Bush put a spotlight on the issue while campaigning in Iowa, which does not have a proposal on the ballot. With the Republican House candidate, Jeff Lamberti, by his side, Bush ?- who has not been talking about gay marriage in recent weeks ?- took pains to insert a reference into his standard stump speech warning that Democrats would raise taxes and make America less safe.

"Yesterday in New Jersey, we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage," Bush said at a luncheon at the Iowa State Fairgrounds that raised $400,000 for Lamberti.

The president drew applause when he reiterated his long-held stance that marriage was "a union between a man and a woman," adding, "I believe it's a sacred institution that is critical to the health of our society and the well-being of families, and it must be defended."

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I posted this on another thread, but I wanted to make sure everyone (especially anyone who's a Democrat and still needing impetus to get to the voting booth) gets to see it...

BE EVER VILIGANT.

Over the next ten days there will be an altogether too familiar and sordid attempt to get out the vote. This will be done by inserting wedge issues like gay marriage, flag-burning or wars against Christmas to incite the base; push-polling, like asking voters if they would vote for John McCain for President if they knew he had fathered a black baby; intimating that a black politician, like say, Harold Ford, might know a "naked" white woman intimately or that House candidate Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, WHO LOST BOTH LEGS IN IRAQ, is a "cut and runner." They might even being very scary letting the folks know that those Hate America Democrats want the terrorists to win. Or even worse...Nancy Pelosi...BOO!

Part and parcel of that effort will be an effort to keep certain people from voting. Poll tax, voter IDs, Diebold, less voting machines in certain voting precincts, longer lines and scrubbed registration rolls. In Ohio it's called Ken Blackwell. On radio, it's Sean Hannity simply telling Democrats to stay home (Patriotic, dis New Media, ain't it?).

What would really be fun this November 7th is that instead of sitting on our asses and allowing this gang of thugs from stealing the mid-term election, Americans use every one of these attempts to manipulate the voter, not as a deterrant to vote, but as an incentive to throw them out of office by voting. Perhaps that will send out a message strong and clear...THAT CRAP DON'T WORK 'ROUND HERE NO MORE!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-young/getting-the-right-people-_b_32617.html

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WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER?

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