WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER?

Top tax rates can be found here

http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php

Unemployment rates can be found here

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/UNRATE.txt

Lets look at the rates since the 1960s as you claimed. I will use December since the rate change happens during the year.

1964 - drop in top rate.. 1967 .. drop in unemployment
1965 rate drop 1968 unemployment drop
1968 rate drop 1971 unemployment increase
1970 rate drop 1973 drop in unemployment
1971 rate drop 1974 increase
1981 drop 1984 drop
1982 drop 1985 drop
1987 drop 1990 drop
1988 drop 1991 increase

So we have 9 drops in top rate with 6 drops and 3 increases. (Some of the drops were pretty small) Not exactly a ringing endorsement for your every 3 years. Some correlation perhaps but statistically hard to judge.

Lets look at the increases in the top rates now
1968 increase 1971 increase
1969 increase 1970 increase
1991 increase 1994 decrease
1993 increase 1997 decrease

There appears to be no correlation when it comes to increases.

Not really enough there to make your claim ican. Some of the drops in the top rate occurred when unemployment rates were uncharactistically high.

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http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=2332041#2332041

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parados wrote:

ican711nm wrote:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/fedstl/unrate
% Monthly Unemployment Rates 1948 to September 2006
...
Computed average unemployment rates for selected presidential terms, with lowest Max Tax Rate for that term.

JFK-LBJ: 77%
1961 = 6.7
1965 = 5.2

Nixon: 70%
1969 = 3.2
1977 = 7.1

Reagan: 28%
1981 = 7.6
1989 = 5.3

Bush41: 31%
1989 = 5.3
1993 = 6.9

Clinton: 39.6%
1993 = 6.9
2001 = 4.7

Bush43: 35%
2001 = 4.7: 39.1%
2002 = 5.8: 38.6%
2003 = 6.0: 35%
2004 = 5.5: 35%
2005 = 5.1: 35%
2006 = 4.7 for 9 months: 35%

I guess that Max Tax Rates per presidential term do not correlate well with Unemployent Rates 3 years later?

I don't know how you figure 3 years but giving an 8 year high and low doesn't give any 3 year turn arounds.

You are just making stuff up then posting numbers that in no way relate to it.

If a raised tax rate causes higher unemployment EXACTLY 3 years later then the 3rd year of Clinton's term MUST have a higer unemployment rate. It doesn't. There is no 3 year correlation. It is a figment of your imagination.

ican711nm wrote:

...

I guess that Max Tax Rates per presidential term do not correlate well with Unemployent Rates 3 years later?

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parados wrote:

...

There appears to be no correlation when it comes to increases.

Not really enough there to make your claim ican. Some of the drops in the top rate occurred when unemployment rates were uncharactistically high.

ican711nm wrote:

...

I guess that Max Tax Rates per presidential term do not correlate well with Unemployent Rates 3 years later?

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soooooooo, who's gonna win?

Cool

Quote:

WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER?

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ehBeth

Quote:

soooooooo, who's gonna win?

Those who get the most votes Rolling Eyes

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Don't roll your eyes at a Canadian lady, you...you...Brooklynite, you.

ps... on Nov 7, a bunch of a2k folks are coming over to our place (upper east side) to watch the results. You'd be welcome to join us.

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au1929 wrote:

ehBeth

Quote:
soooooooo, who's gonna win?

Those who get the most votes

I was kinda sorta hoping that someone'd be interested in discussing the topic suggested in the thread title.

oh well.

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pblatham

Quote:

s... on Nov 7, a bunch of a2k folks are coming over to our place (upper east side) to watch the results. You'd be welcome to join us.

Thanks for the invite. However, my physical condition precludes that possibility.Again thanks.

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I'm very sorry to hear it, au.

And to answer Bethie's question... congress will fall to the dems. I wouldn't bet on the Senate, but it will be close.

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Well for me, the election is over. In Florida, you can vote early, starting today. We have a dandy new regional library that just opened a few weeks ago (I have been there three times already), and I got to vote this afternoon.

We have those "touch screen" voting machines, and I am a bit leery about them. The damn thing didn't work unless I poked it with a pencil eraser. At one point near the end of my voting I just brushed the screen, and the whole thing went back to the first page.

I am all for technology and progress, but somehow those levers that I used to pull in NY seemed much more secure to me.

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ehBeth wrote:

au1929 wrote:
ehBeth

Quote:
soooooooo, who's gonna win?

Those who get the most votes

I was kinda sorta hoping that someone'd be interested in discussing the topic suggested in the thread title.

oh well.

The Republicans will add 2 seats in the House and 1 seat in the Senate, because the voters will by election day realize that the psychotic Democrats are a far greater threat to our security than the neurotic Republicans.

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ican711nm wrote:

ehBeth wrote:
au1929 wrote:
ehBeth

Quote:
soooooooo, who's gonna win?

Those who get the most votes

I was kinda sorta hoping that someone'd be interested in discussing the topic suggested in the thread title.

oh well.

The Republicans will add 2 seats in the House and 1 seat in the Senate, because the voters will by election day realize that the psychotic Democrats are a far greater threat to our security than the neurotic Republicans.

Wanna bet?

ps... I recommend you familiarize yourself with the symptoms/definitions of neurosis and psychosis.

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blatham wrote:

ican711nm wrote:

...
The Republicans will add 2 seats in the House and 1 seat in the Senate, because the voters will by election day realize that the psychotic Democrats are a far greater threat to our security than the neurotic Republicans.

Wanna bet?

ps... I recommend you familiarize yourself with the symptoms/definitions of neurosis and psychosis.

"been there, done that" :wink:

DEMOCRATS ARE PSYCHOTICS

Quote:

http://www.m-w.com
Main Entry: psy·cho·sis
Pronunciation: sI-'kO-s&s
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural psy·cho·ses -"sEz/
Etymology: New Latin
: fundamental derangement of the mind (as in schizophrenia) characterized by defective or lost contact with reality especially as evidenced by delusions, hallucinations, and disorganized speech and behavior

REPUBLICANS ARE NEUROTICS

Quote:

http://www.m-w.com
Main Entry: neu·ro·sis
Pronunciation: nu-'rO-s&s, nyu-
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural neu·ro·ses -"sEz/
Etymology: New Latin
: a mental and emotional disorder that affects only part of the personality, is accompanied by a less distorted perception of reality than in a psychosis, does not result in disturbance of the use of language, and is accompanied by various physical, physiological, and mental disturbances (as visceral symptoms, anxieties, or phobias)

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Poll: Voters doubt either party has plan; Democrats seen as stronger leaders
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Headed into the midterm elections, Americans are skeptical about whether either Democrats or Republicans have a clear plan to solve the country's problems, but more people think Democrats can provide stronger leadership, according to the results of a new CNN poll released Tuesday.

Asked if the Democrats had a clear plan, just 38 percent said they did, while 58 percent said they did not. Republicans fared worse, with 31 percent saying they had a clear plan and 67 percent saying they did not.

However, 63 percent of poll respondents said they believed Democrats could provide strong leadership, compared to just 49 percent who said Republicans would. And while 50 percent said they doubted the Republicans' leadership capacity, only 35 percent expressed the same doubts about Democrats. The sampling error in the poll, conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corporation, was plus or minus 3 percentage points. (Posted 7:55 a.m.)

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Independent Voters Favor Democrats by 2 to 1 in Poll
Iraq War Cited Most Often As Top Issue for Elections

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, October 24, 2006; Page A01

Two weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans are losing the battle for independent voters, who now strongly favor Democrats on Iraq and other major issues facing the country and overwhelmingly prefer to see them take over the House in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The new poll underscores how much of a drag the war threatens to be on Republican candidates in competitive races. With debate underway in Washington about possible course changes in Iraq, Americans cite the war as the most important issue in determining their vote next month more often than any other issue, and those who do favor Democrats over Republicans by 76 percent to 21 percent.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102300766.html?referrer=email

These are to voters that tip elections one way or the other. The question is not who will win. But rather whether anyone no matter who is elected undo the damage that Bush and his trolls have visited on this nation and the world.

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Phoenix32890 wrote:

Well for me, the election is over. In Florida, you can vote early, starting today. We have a dandy new regional library that just opened a few weeks ago (I have been there three times already), and I got to vote this afternoon.

We have those "touch screen" voting machines, and I am a bit leery about them. The damn thing didn't work unless I poked it with a pencil eraser. At one point near the end of my voting I just brushed the screen, and the whole thing went back to the first page.

I am all for technology and progress, but somehow those levers that I used to pull in NY seemed much more secure to me.

Speaking of the new machines:

Potential problems loom in election voting

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I say again:
The Republicans will add 2 seats in the House and add 1 seat in the Senate, because the voters will by election day realize that the psychotic Democrats are a far greater threat to our security than the neurotic Republicans.

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Thank you, ican. That will make it so much simpler to find your prediction after election day.

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WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER?

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