Setanta: Inferring causation from two closely linked events is not fallacious per se. It is a logical fallacy, however, to assume that, when one event precedes another, the first must have caused the second. For instance, if I walk under a ladder and then am hit by a bus, it is fallacious to assume that the first event (walking under the ladder) had a causal relationship with the second (getting hit by a bus). On the other hand, it is perfectly proper to assume that there is a causal connection between events when that sequence of events can be plausibly explained by causation. Thus, ascribing one's violently retching after reading one of bernardogattochiczawhatever's posts to causation is certainly a plausible (if unproven) explanation for that sequence of events.
Joe is being scrupulously correct of course. More research needs to be done to prove causation. However, my
gut instincts are the same a Sets.
That was possibly the most erudite exchange of posts in this entire pathetic thread . . .
It is not often that Setanta and myself are in agreement but in this case I have to confess that we are not altogether at loggerheads.
spendi, Have you ever had a "not altogether at loggerheads' moment with anybody else?
nimh wrote:Anonymouse wrote:You cannot simply walk into Japan and 'be Japanese'. You can drink as much Sake and wear a kimono as long as you want, Japan has a very conscious idea of its ethnic make up. The same goes for the Koreas. Now contrast their cultural and national cohesion and low crimes with that of the West.
You have established that there is both relatively low crime and great homogenity in Japan. You have not established any cause and effect relation between the two.
From what I gather, you argument is that since there is A (low crime rate) and there is B (homogenous population), therefore A must be the result of B. That seems like a bit of a nonsequitur. There could be many other characteristics of Japanese society, or any combination of them, that might be equally or more responsible for the relatively low crime rate.
It's not just Japan though. It's also Korea, and we can also look at countries like Norway and Sweden and compare it to countries like France and see the differences. But Norway and Sweden are slowly changing as well. I was just there last year and in the one city I was, the one or two violent crimes that did occur were committed by immigrants.
"Racial differences may be genetically few, but human beings seem designed to attach importance to them."
Niall Ferguson in a comment in today's The Guardian:
We must understand why racist belief systems persist
Occom Bill wrote:
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BernardR wrote:
Since NIMH appears to be absymally ignorant about American Society, he does not know those things.
Bernard, we probably agree on a good deal of subjects, but on this you are as wrong as you can be. I would wager my Kingdom that Nimh is not only not ignorant about American Society but that he understands and is more knowledgeable than 95% of Americans about American Society in each and every measurable politically important way there is (that's not to say he isn't frequently wrong, politically ). A2K affords you the ability to click on a name and read every post said poster has ever written, should you choose to do so. I recommend you read a few of Nimh's before accusing one of the most informed members of A2K of ignorance again. The results will surprise you if you're coherent... and likely amaze you if you if you have anything resembling an open mind. Try it.
nimh wrote:
From what I gather, you argument is that since there is A (low crime rate) and there is B (homogenous population), therefore A must be the result of B. That seems like a bit of a nonsequitur. There could be many other characteristics of Japanese society, or any combination of them, that might be equally or more responsible for the relatively low crime rate.
Just pretending to understand those cool Greek words again and stuff... Do you mean Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc?
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He may know some things about American Society but he has shown himself in his writings to be quite envious of the USA. Asherman asked him if he really needed to post the findings about the CIA's activities DURING WORLD WAR II, in a previous post. Nimh apparently loves to throw mud at the USA. After the post where he excoriated the CIA, I wrote a reply in which I talked about the fact that all countries use organizations like the CIA in many ways and in apparent contradiction to what would seem to be logic. Some people actually think that the enemy of todau could not possibly have been the friend of last year. Others think that alliances last forever. I pointed this out to the learned NIMH and he did not answer.
Since he is so brilliant and knows so much about the USA, as you say, he could have destroyed my argument in two sentences. He did not!!
You say he knows the USA?
He only knows some things about the USA.
He has no depth of knowledge about the Educational System in the USA
He has no depth of knowledge about alleged racism in the USA
He knows little or nothing about the Supreme Court of the USA and its decisions.
He knows little or nothing about the History of the Ethnic Groups in the USA.
You are vastly overrated him. He is able, however, to call people names in his posts when he cannot respond to their arguments. That he can do!!!
Nimh belabors the obvious. He knows that in Social Science( and often in Science) it is impossible to set up a perfect correlation between one characteristic of a people and another one.
I don't think Anonymouse was trying to do that and neither was I.
The response by the lawyer who graduated from Harvard Law School, Summa Cum Laude, Mr.Joe From Chicago( His handsome face was able to be admired by all on these threads in some of the pictures taken at the May reunion) is nasty and shows that he sometimes becomes involved in puerile activities which, of course, would never be accepted in the halls at 26th and California.
But, since all Joe From Chicago did, was say that aPost hoc, ergo Propter Hoc is not acceptable, he is carrying coals to Newcastle. But I will give him a finding which he may term "Post Hoc ergo Propter Hoc" and it is no such thing. It merely states that there is a correlation between one fact and another fact.
I look for the learned Joe from Chicago( certainly Harvard Law School Graduates are highly trained) to inform me that the correlation between Crime in Japan and the fact that the Population is Homogeneous does not exist. If he can do that, perhaps I can learn something from the learned barrister.
Thanks for the correction Joe!
BernardR, I am less impressed with your knowledge of the USA than Nimh's (increase by a factor of 100 for a mannerism comparison.
)
BernardR wrote:The response by the lawyer who graduated from Harvard Law School, Summa Cum Laude, Mr.Joe From Chicago( His handsome face was able to be admired by all on these threads in some of the pictures taken at the May reunion) is nasty and shows that he sometimes becomes involved in puerile activities which, of course, would never be accepted in the halls at 26th and California.
Now, now,
Bernardogatto, I've told you before that I didn't go to Harvard Law School (not that there's anything wrong with Harvard -- I would have been proud to have graduated from there, but I didn't). Of course, that was about five or six screen name changes ago -- I'm not sure how those sorts of things affect your memory.
BernardR wrote:I look for the learned Joe from Chicago( certainly Harvard Law School Graduates are highly trained) to inform me that the correlation between Crime in Japan and the fact that the Population is Homogeneous does not exist. If he can do that, perhaps I can learn something from the learned barrister.
No doubt there is a correlation between low crime and ethnic homogeneity in Japan. Correlation, after all, is just a particular similarity between two facts. There are correlations everywhere. Whether a given correlation can be explained by causation, however, is another question entirely.
Joe from Chicago wrote:
No doubt there is a correlation between low crime and ethnic homogeneity in Japan. Correlation, after all, is just a particular similarity between two facts. There are correlations everywhere. Whether a given correlation can be explained by causation, however, is another question entirely.
Yes. Mr. Attorney from Chicago. And I will state EVEN BEFORE I FIND EVIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION BETWEEN SOCIETIES THAT HAVE A HOMOGENOUS POPULATION AND ALSO HAVE LOW CRIME RATES.
Now, there is no way to PROVE that the Homogenous Populations caused the low crime rates just as there is no way to PROVE that people with normal blood pressure do not have as many heart attacks as people with high blood pressure BUT THE CORRELATION IS SIGNIFICANT.
You did not go Harvard? I thought you did. Your arguments on the law in other posts sounded as if you were speaking from on high.
Did you go to John Marshall? You need not be ashamed. It is a good law school.There are more John Marshall shysters in the halls at 26th and California taking speeding ticket cases than any other group!
Bernard you really are quite unpleasant.
Try picking on me, you up for it?
It was quite neat I thought Steve.
It made me laugh at least. It is mere intellectual arm wrestling. It's actually a compliment to Joe because Bernard treats him almost as a rival.
Did you remember to follow my hint about Italy. They were about 10s or 12s at the time. I hope you took my advice about the Czech Republic.
Wanna go to a flag burning do.
Anyone treated as a rival by Italgato/Massagato/Chiczaria/Mortkat/Bernard can hardly be said to have been complimented. It's rather like the old dictum about wrestling with a pig--you get dirty, but the pig enjoys it.
spendius wrote:It was quite neat I thought Steve.
It made me laugh at least. It is mere intellectual arm wrestling. It's actually a compliment to Joe because Bernard treats him almost as a rival.
Did you remember to follow my hint about Italy. They were about 10s or 12s at the time. I hope you took my advice about the Czech Republic.
Wanna go to a flag burning do.
No sadly Spendius I did not take your advice. On the other hand I never bought Czech.
Mrs S is ectatic that the Azzurris won, especially that boy from Ashton under Lyne. But I had a feeling for France and Zidane...both wildly off target of course, apart from the head butt
