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Oil, will it be the last straw for America?

 
 
Acquiunk
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Apr, 2006 07:48 pm
Mass transit works best when the population is concentrated. Around 1900 the northeast had a very cheap and efficient interurban (trolly) system But the population out side of cities was concentrated in villages and towns. Beginning in the 1920'sa the automobile and cheap gasolene allowed people to spread out over the country side. By the 1950'sa the system of interurban transportation was dead. We are now stuck with an infrastructure, suburban and exurban sprawl, that assumes private transportation,. If you want to revive the interurban, or something like it you will have to revers the process of population spread and concentrate people in compact towns and villages again. To service a dispersed population is both too expense and inefficient.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Apr, 2006 11:19 pm
To follow up on my suggestion to run the numbers on mass transit bus systems, I surfed the internet for a while before I could find anything much, finally concerning I think Portland in this site:

http://www.saveportland.com/Car_Vs_Tri-Met/energy-cost-death-02d.htm

Reading through their numbers it appears that after diesel is equated to gasoline and looking at number of passenger miles, one figure in their tables indicate the buses achieved 34.96 passenger miles per gallon. Now, obviously some cities might be better while others perform worse, but here's my thoughts on it if we simply look at the 34.96. First of all, how many people can catch a bus that goes directly where they wish to go as you would by driving your own car? I tried taking the bus once to work, and ended up going in a zig-zag route that probably was 50% further than I would need to go directly by car, plus it took about 3 times as long to get there with all the stops. So I will be lenient and not factor in 50% further, but let us guess that the 34.96 would translate lower to at least somewhere between 25 and 30 passenger miles per gallon.

This exercise simply confirms the suspicions, and supports McGentrix observations. Buy an economical car that gets 30 mpg or better and it is possibly or probably just as economical or moreso than riding the bus, depending on where you live. Plus look at all the prevention of black clouds of poisonous, polluting diesel smoke that are spewed throughout cities every day. Plus save paying the drivers, buying the buses, supporting the management, and the millions that go into running the systems. Plus by removing the buses, we could remove a traffic blocker, as they stop all the time. Also factor in the help driving to work, heating their offices and bus garages and the like, and things really start looking bad for any possible energy savings by bus systems.

My guess is that many systems are less efficient than Portland's system and would therefore be obvious bureaucratic boondoggles that accomplish exactly the opposite of what they are designed to do, or at least accomplish very very little in terms of saving energy. And has anyone computed the tons of pollutants emitted by diesel powered buses in cities for an entire year?

If I can figure this out in 30 minutes of research on the internet, how come cities with all of their transit experts can't figure this out and tell the people the truth? The answer is probably they don't want to be out of a job, just like every bureaucrat.

I realize bus systems will probably exist simply as a convenience for some people that may not have cars or cannot drive cars. That is fine, but perhaps the people advertising bus mass transit as an energy saver need to face the truth, that it may not be much of a saver, and in fact probably is an absolute waste of energy for some cities.

McGentrix deserves an apology.

P.S. I equated the bus to a car that gets 25 to 30 mpg, I admit, so if everybody's car averages 20 or 18, then the Portland bus system might save a tiny bit of gasoline, but it all depends on a personal basis what kind of car you have as to whether the bus saves. A Toyota Prius would put the buses to shame. And if you carpool with only one other person, you really put the buses to shame. And in other cities where bus ridership is alot less, any kind of gas hog might be more economical.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Apr, 2006 11:47 pm
okie has a one-track mind. Not all busses running in cities today run on gas or diesel, many are now electric. While you factor in the cost of the car, gas, maintenance, and insurance, you must also factor in the stress associated with driving during commute hours, and the cost of road maintenance/repair. I'm not sure how to put a price tag on that! Many take the train; some are express trains while others are locals.

Show us your numbers now - by making some real comparisons in cost.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 12:01 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
okie has a one-track mind. Not all busses running in cities today run on gas or diesel, many are now electric. While you factor in the cost of the car, gas, maintenance, and insurance, you must also factor in the stress associated with driving during commute hours, and the cost of road maintenance/repair. I'm not sure how to put a price tag on that! Many take the train; some are express trains while others are locals.

Show us your numbers now - by making some real comparisons in cost.


I didn't address electric or light rail. I only looked at diesel bus systems which are pretty common. Light rail in certain areas may be a good thing and an energy saver. I like it because it gets cars off the highways and don't clog them with buses and bus lanes. I don't know about electric buses in terms of energy consumption. Your comment about cost of the car, insurance, etc. does not seem to have much to do with comparing fuel consumption and saving gasoline does it? I don't know about buses, but we know trucks tear up highways at an exponentially more serious manner than cars because of their weight, so your argument concerning buses saving road repairs might be just the opposite of what you might think.

As far as showing my numbers, how about showing your numbers? I've made a contribution to the debate here with some numbers, but I don't have to be the source now for all of them.

As for stress for driving rush hour, I chose driving to get there in 1/3 the time much preferable to a stinky bus bouncing along in the right lane. Also, I chose to live within about 17 minutes from work.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 12:09 am
Besides that cars driven by Europeans generally have a better average mph (because they are smaller), it seems we have got better Diesel engines in the busses as well. (Besides, busses in cities, quite often use gas engines nowadays.)
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 12:18 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Besides that cars driven by Europeans generally have a better average mph (because they are smaller), it seems we have got better Diesel engines in the busses as well. (Besides, busses in cities, quite often use gas engines nowadays.)


How does an American distinguish a gas-powered motor from a petrol-powered one?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 12:27 am
I mean a "gaseous-fuel engine" or however that'll translate to American English :wink:


Just adding that I wouldn't like to ride an hour in a bus myslef (and noone here does). So, we've got a good system of "city trains", light railways, trams as well.
0 Replies
 
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 06:13 am
Acquiunk wrote:
Mass transit works best when the population is concentrated. Around 1900 the northeast had a very cheap and efficient interurban (trolly) system But the population out side of cities was concentrated in villages and towns. Beginning in the 1920'sa the automobile and cheap gasolene allowed people to spread out over the country side. By the 1950'sa the system of interurban transportation was dead. We are now stuck with an infrastructure, suburban and exurban sprawl, that assumes private transportation,. If you want to revive the interurban, or something like it you will have to revers the process of population spread and concentrate people in compact towns and villages again. To service a dispersed population is both too expense and inefficient.


Stuck indeed. Urban planners are still thinking like it's 1964. So now it may be market forces, god help us, that provide the answers, if not the pleasant solutions.

At what price does the sojourner from outside Syacruse start looking for a carpool? At what price does the carpool start looking for a bigger van to take them and some others from a nearby company? At what price do the members of the pool say the hell with it and try to find a property(or properties) within walking distance from where they work. (Bundle up in December!)

Meanwhile, the oil companies know what going on, they are running out of product and they intend to wrest every nickel of value out of every last drop. Luckily, American companies have two oil executives leading their nation's military forces in the fight to secure greater production, meanwhile the companies will continue to ratchet up the price of gas.

Remember being shocked at $1.00 a gallon?? How naive were we? Remember being relieved when gas went back down to $1.89 a gallon? How sweet we were.

And now, when gas "drops" to $2.93, we will breathe a sign of relief and so will the oil executives in their offices and in the offices of the White House. Cheney's plan is working.

Joe(Are the rubes still buying it? Yes, George, go to sleep)Nation
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 06:16 am
Petrol (gasoline) and diesel oil prices in the UK are roughly three times US prices. Not many Hummers over here.

Hello Joe (ships that pass in the night) Nation
0 Replies
 
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 06:25 am
Cheers, McTag.

The truly laughable thing is that American car companies are going broke by continuing to sell SUVs.

Joe(Americans are the biggest brats on the planet)Nation
0 Replies
 
cavolina
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 07:43 am
Joe

I couldn't agree more. It mystifies me why Bush chose Iraq as the WMD(nonexistent) target when Korea had proven WMD. I guess it had to do with the Iraq underground. You know the crude underground.

Iran is next. Even though they don't have a WMD yet, they also have an underground. And, it's as crude as Iraq's.

The cost of gasoline at the pump is a small part of the price we will pay in lives and destruction as Bush and his oil company friends greedily and blindly waltz us toward WWIII. We move on Iran and China for all its talk will see its opportunity for the oil it needs in jeopardy. They will supply Iran to make it difficult for us to win and control Iran. If that fails and they feel threateneed enough they will give military support with troops. If that pushes us to the edge with our already depleted military, tactical nukes come to the table.

The rest is too horrible to imagine.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 09:02 am
McGentrix wrote:
cicerone imposter wrote:
The US has one of the worst public transportation system in all the developed countries, so most must rely on their cars. Unless our government begins to imporove public transportation, we will continue our demand on oil. It's that simple.


That's because we have people spread out all over the suburbs. Our large cities have excellent mass transit (at least til you get to the mississippi river).

Public transportation is not the solution. What difference does it make if a bus takes me to work the 25 miles, or my car does?


McGentrix, has anyone apologized to you yet for ridiculing your statements about buses? Several hinted you had lost your mind or at least were totally wrong. Well, I did the math on an example bus system found on the internet and found that indeed if everyone drove an economical car of 25 to 30 mpg or more, they would likely not use any more gasoline than the buses do. I pointed out that they all needed to apologize to you for their sneering remarks, as they were the ones with the misconceptions about mass transit.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 09:16 am
cavolina wrote:
Joe

I couldn't agree more. It mystifies me why Bush chose Iraq as the WMD(nonexistent) target when Korea had proven WMD. I guess it had to do with the Iraq underground. You know the crude underground.

Iran is next. Even though they don't have a WMD yet, they also have an underground. And, it's as crude as Iraq's.

The cost of gasoline at the pump is a small part of the price we will pay in lives and destruction as Bush and his oil company friends greedily and blindly waltz us toward WWIII. We move on Iran and China for all its talk will see its opportunity for the oil it needs in jeopardy. They will supply Iran to make it difficult for us to win and control Iran. If that fails and they feel threateneed enough they will give military support with troops. If that pushes us to the edge with our already depleted military, tactical nukes come to the table.

The rest is too horrible to imagine.


If the war was about oil, it doesn't seem to be working very well in that regard with the prices going out of sight?

Do you advocate attacking North Korea? And now that Iran is close to having nuclear missile capability, do you advocate attacking them? Is WMD the only criteria that you consider?
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 09:51 am
okie wrote:
Reading through their numbers it appears that after diesel is equated to gasoline and looking at number of passenger miles, one figure in their tables indicate the buses achieved 34.96 passenger miles per gallon. Now, obviously some cities might be better while others perform worse, but here's my thoughts on it if we simply look at the 34.96. First of all, how many people can catch a bus that goes directly where they wish to go as you would by driving your own car? I tried taking the bus once to work, and ended up going in a zig-zag route that probably was 50% further than I would need to go directly by car, plus it took about 3 times as long to get there with all the stops. So I will be lenient and not factor in 50% further, but let us guess that the 34.96 would translate lower to at least somewhere between 25 and 30 passenger miles per gallon.

No, it doesn't. It might be somewhat less fuel-efficient for you, but I'm sure that the Portland numbers are system-wide, i.e. it's an average of all riders on the system. There's no point in applying a discount factor -- it has already been accounted for in arriving at the average.

okie wrote:
This exercise simply confirms the suspicions, and supports McGentrix observations. Buy an economical car that gets 30 mpg or better and it is possibly or probably just as economical or moreso than riding the bus, depending on where you live. Plus look at all the prevention of black clouds of poisonous, polluting diesel smoke that are spewed throughout cities every day. Plus save paying the drivers, buying the buses, supporting the management, and the millions that go into running the systems. Plus by removing the buses, we could remove a traffic blocker, as they stop all the time. Also factor in the help driving to work, heating their offices and bus garages and the like, and things really start looking bad for any possible energy savings by bus systems.

I would say this is analysis is simplistic, but that would be unfair to all the other simplistic analyses out there. Here are just a few problems that I can identify:

1. While the pollution caused by one bus is probably greater than that caused by one car, a bus holds far more people than a car, so the per-person pollution is greater for cars than buses. Replacing buses with cars, then, will increase pollution, not decrease it.

2. The money that would be saved by eliminating mass transit would simply go into paying for more roads, which would be needed to accomodate all the extra cars. No savings there.

3. Removing buses wouldn't "remove a traffic blocker." If a bus is replaced by the thirty or forty cars that would be needed by the passengers of that bus, then traffic would be worse, not better. The next time you're stuck behind a bus, think about being stuck instead behind a line of cars filled by the passengers on that bus.

okie wrote:
If I can figure this out in 30 minutes of research on the internet, how come cities with all of their transit experts can't figure this out and tell the people the truth? The answer is probably they don't want to be out of a job, just like every bureaucrat.

No, the answer is that anyone can come up with some half-assed research in thirty minutes that is completely and unquestionably wrong.

okie wrote:
I realize bus systems will probably exist simply as a convenience for some people that may not have cars or cannot drive cars. That is fine, but perhaps the people advertising bus mass transit as an energy saver need to face the truth, that it may not be much of a saver, and in fact probably is an absolute waste of energy for some cities.

Next you'll be telling us that trees cause more pollution than cars.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 10:18 am
joefromchicago wrote:
No, it doesn't. It might be somewhat less fuel-efficient for you, but I'm sure that the Portland numbers are system-wide, i.e. it's an average of all riders on the system. There's no point in applying a discount factor -- it has already been accounted for in arriving at the average.


Wheres your numbers to dispute my calculation? My numbers are system wide with all riders on the system; isn't that the obvious way to look at the efficiencies of a bus system? Discount factor? If you are referrring to my discount from the approximately 35 mpg per passenger mile to be likely equivalent to 25 to 30 mpg per passenger mile for a personal car, based of the fact that no bus would likely go directly the shortest route from your house to exactly where you want to go, I do not see where that factor would be accounted for in their figures? I admit my factor is an estimate, but surely nobody would suggest there would not be a factor. Provide evidence if thats what you believe.

I know its not easy to re-examine the validity of the long held traditional belief that all mass transit saves energy, as drummed into people and therefore accepted and used in arguments all the time, but if the truth is possibly different based on actually running the numbers, then I'm sorry.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 10:23 am
okie, You manage to "discount" the number of average passengers by what account? Give us some evidence that your discounting has some support for it. Your assumptions are only your personal opinion without anything to support it.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 10:25 am
Common sense deduction. Have you ever ridden a bus system? By the way, I am not discounting average passengers. I am factoring in the extra distance a bus system likely travels over and above what it would require you to drive directly to your destination, instead of zigzagging on a bus system to your destination.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 10:27 am
"Common sense" by whose standard? Yours? LOL
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 10:34 am
I've not even mentioned the obvious fact that some people do not walk to a bus stop, some drive their personal cars to a parking area, which might be in the opposite direction or at an oblique angle to their ultimate destination, which is an additional factor of gasoline usage.

Cicerone imposter, are you unable to grasp the concept explained about buses not likely going in the exact most efficient route that you would take if you drove your personal car? What is it about that idea that seems impossible for you to understand?
0 Replies
 
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Apr, 2006 10:40 am
Okie wrote:
Quote:
If the war was about oil, it doesn't seem to be working very well in that regard with the prices going out of sight?
In the dream world of the BoyKing JesusBelieverGeorge and Donald(We can do this on the cheap)Rumsfeld, they still think the folks with the bouquets of flowers are just around the corner or maybe that's them holding the light at the end of the tunnel. At any rate, the plan, you remember the plan, don't you?, was to pay for the Iraq regime change with the revenues from the liberated oil fields. So far, not so much.

Okie wrote (Part Deux):
Quote:
Do you advocate attacking North Korea? And now that Iran is close to having nuclear missile capability, do you advocate attacking them? Is WMD the only criteria that you consider?


No, I advocate doing what we should have been doing the last god-knows-how-many-years the righteous have been in power, to wit: Talk, gather ALLIES (oh, and value their opinions, that would be nice), and find ways of achieving our goals as a nation without having to resort to blowing up people.

North Korea is very dangerous because it is close to collapse, don't ask the CIA, they think the ChiComs, as they STILL refer to the Chinese will handle it for George. Don't bet on it. The Chinese meanwhile are very concerned about another nation which seems bent on a policy of invading countries unilaterally. That would be us, Okie, that would be us.

The Chinese have far more leverage over both North Korea and us than we have our them. (Follow the trade deficit money.)

Meanwhile, Iran, where we should have focused along with capturing or killing Osama, five years ago, has gotten ahead of the debate. We need strong allies in the form of Russia, France and Germany to work out ways to calm this situation down. Turkey would be an asset too. Now if the Bush Administration could just get over it's "We're God's people complex" and get back to reality....

Joe(don't bet on that either)Nation
0 Replies
 
 

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