cavolina wrote:In most businesses, the rising cost of supplies is passed on to the customer as rising prices.
I disagree with this basic premise. The price customers pay is based on supply and demand. A good example of this is the airline industry. Their costs were going up, but they could not pass on those costs. Rising airfare led to more people driving or low cost competitors. Soda is another good example. Coke and Pepsi would love to raise prices, but when a 2 liter goes over a dollar, people stop buying, so you end up seeing in on sale for 99 cents every time you go to the store. It's been that price for over a decade. Your seven times multiplier is probably a good rule of thumb based on assumptions that supply can exceed demand. If the world's oil producers can easily jack up the flow, then everything is stable. It is apparent that this is increasing not true. The Saudis do not seem able to increase flow sufficiently to balance the market and provide stability. Or maybe they are doing it on purpose and that would support your point, but not that US companies are gouging.
So if prices are driven by supply and demand, where are we today? There is more demand today, both from the ever voracious US market or from rapidly growing economies in Asia. Add to that production upsets in Iraq and Niger and the occasional weather related hit in the Gulf and the supply looks questionable as well. It makes sense that prices are going up and that those who own the supply will do well in that market. In this, it is exactly like real estate. Fixed or decreasing supply, increasing demand -> big profits for sellers and pain for buyers. Real estate is not going up because the owners are passing on expenses.
I agree with your original premise about energy policies. I believe the way for us to get out from under this cycle is to:
- Develop a reasonable and consistent energy policy for the country based on reduction of consumption and developing other sources of energy.
- Raise awareness of the population on the importance and impact of energy consumption.
- Institute policies that reward those who save and penalize those who consume excessively.
What I don't support is the red herring that oil companies are evil and are responsible for our problems. We are responsible for our problems. We did it. These prices are due to our demand for gas and oil, our SUVs, our heated outdoor swimming pools, our houses with the AC at 68 degrees in the summer. Everyone is looking for a scapegoat instead of looking in the mirror.