THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, TENTH THREAD.

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Wednesday that Iraqi forces are capable of taking control of security throughout the country within 18 months, but still need more recruits, training and equipment.

I have been wondering what would happen if the day ever came when those that are in the leadership position in Iraq (whoever they happened to be at the time) asked or told the US to leave. Maybe it is getting closer?

WASHINGTON, Jan. 27 - President Bush said in an interview on Thursday that he would withdraw American forces from Iraq if the new government that is elected on Sunday asked him to do so, but that he expected Iraq's first democratically elected leaders would want the troops to remain as helpers, not as occupiers.

If a new president doesn't listen to the majority of the public's wishes on pulling out from Iraq, and the new president ignores it, I doubt the president will last very long as an effective one.

If they wish to match GW Bush's performance rating, they are free to make any choice. We'll have to wait and see.

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We all know how small such a pullout will be and what verbal scrambling will take place to describe it as (a) a relocation or redistribution of troop force or (b) a major pullback from the Iraq war zone now that the Iraqi security forces have shouldered a larger portion of policing the country.

US, Britain to start Iraq exit in July
Correspondents in Baghdad
May 24, 2006
US President George W.Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair will meet in Washington this week to discuss plans for an accelerated withdrawal of troops from Iraq, starting in July.

Reports in London said that in a phased pullout, in which the two countries would act in tandem, Britain would hand over to Iraqi security forces in Muthanna province in July and the Americans would follow suit in Najaf, the Shia holy city.

Other withdrawals would follow quickly over the remainder of the year in a much faster and more ambitious withdrawal than expected.

The reports came after Mr Blair paid a surprise visit to Baghdad to meet Iraq's new Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki.

US and British officials hope Britain's 8000 troops in Iraq can be cut to 5000 by the end of the year and the US's 133,000 troops to about 100,000. Iraqi security forces could be in charge of much of the country by the year's end.

Buoyed by the formation of Iraq's new unity Government at the weekend, senior officials travelling with Mr Blair said all foreign troops should be out of the country within four years.

Mr Blair is to hold further discussions on withdrawal at a White House summit with Mr Bush later this week.

Mr Blair flew in to support the new Government as Mr Maliki embarked on the daunting task of rescuing the country from spiralling violence and the threat of sectarian partition.

Mr Blair declined to give a precise countdown for the removal of the British forces in Iraq, saying only that "we want to move as fast as we can" without jeopardising security.

But loose timetables were beginning to emerge. In a joint statement, the two prime ministers said that "by the end of this year, responsibility for much of Iraq's territorial security should have been transferred to Iraqi control".

Mr Maliki went further. He said Muthanna and Maysan, two of the four British-run provinces in the south, could be handed over to Iraqi forces by July, and by the year's end only Baghdad and the Sunni insurgent stronghold of Anbar in the west might remain under US control.

British sources agreed that Muthanna and Maysan provinces could be transferred, freeing up about 1500 British troops, but a US defence official was more cautious about Mr Maliki's prediction for the rest of the country.

He said: "There is no formal agreement on this. This is an aspiration, not a declaration. If everything continues well, maybe it can happen ... (but) conditions on the ground will be the final determinant."

The four-year target came from a senior Blair aide.

"The aim is to take Iraq to a position where the multinational force is able to withdraw during (the new Government's) period in office," he said.

However, he said a far smaller number of British forces would remain for training purposes.

Mr Blair used his fifth trip to Iraq since the invasion to topple Saddam Hussein three years ago to hail the formation of a permanent government representing the Shia, Kurdish and Sunni communities.

He admitted that the three-year battle to establish democracy had "been longer and harder than any of us would have wanted it to be", but continued: "There isnow no excuse for people to carry on with terrorism and bloodshed."

Referring to the multinational force, he said: "It's the violence that keeps us here. It's the peace that will let us go. We want to move as fast as we can, but it has to be done in a way to preserve the security of the Iraqi people."

Mr Blair spent several hours meeting Mr Maliki and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone. Elsewhere, as if to underscore the challenge facing Mr Maliki's new Government, at least 20 Iraqis were killed in gun and bomb attacks.

The handover process is being planned by the Joint Committee to Transfer Security Responsibility, on which British, American and Iraqi officials sit.

It is working on a "traffic light" system, marking in green those provinces where Iraqi forces are ready to take over and the insurgent threat is low. Its first assessment last month rated none of the 18 provinces green.

This month's assessment, yet to be completed, is believed to have earmarked Muthanna and Maysan for possible handover, as well as the Kurdish provinces in the north.

Muthanna, which includes the town of Samawa, is a large area of desert in the west of the British area. Maysan, which includes the town of al-Amarah, is in the northeast of the British sector adjoining the border with Iran.

British officials said withdrawing from Maysan would be harder because of the border problem. However, one added: "We certainly hope at least one of ours is able to transfer during the course of the summer."

British military and diplomatic sources said it was far too optimistic to talk of handing over Basra, where most British troops are based and security is deteriorating, in the foreseeable future.

AFP, The Times