0
   

THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, TENTH THREAD.

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 19 Jan, 2007 05:05 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi bad guys are still Iraqis.

Again, I'm not talking about rates. It's about country y vs country x.


Rolling Eyes WHAT IS ABOUT COUNTRY Y VS. COUNTRY X?

YOU REPEATEDLY WROTE:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


NOW WITH EMPHASIS:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


Since "maybe" is the key word; how can it be worth more American livds? IT IS WORTH MORE AMERICAN LIVES TO "MAYBE" SAVE MORE AMERICAN LIVES. Would you volunteer YES, IF I WERE YOUNGER, THIS OLD BUZZARD WOULD VOLUNTEER or send your family members for this "maybe?" NO! I WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO MY OWN FAMILY MEMBERS TO DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES RATHER THAN SEND THEM ANYWHERE.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 19 Jan, 2007 05:13 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi bad guys are still Iraqis.

Again, I'm not talking about rates. It's about country y vs country x.


Rolling Eyes WHAT IS ABOUT COUNTRY Y VS. COUNTRY X?

YOU REPEATEDLY WROTE:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


NOW WITH EMPHASIS:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


Since "maybe" is the key word; how can it be worth more American livds? IT IS WORTH MORE AMERICAN LIVES TO "MAYBE" SAVE MORE AMERICAN LIVES. Would you volunteer YES, IF I WERE YOUNGER, THIS OLD BUZZARD WOULD VOLUNTEER or send your family members for this "maybe?" NO! I WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO MY OWN FAMILY MEMBERS TO DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES RATHER THAN SEND THEM ANYWHERE.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 19 Jan, 2007 05:28 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi bad guys are still Iraqis.

Again, I'm not talking about rates. It's about country y vs country x.


Rolling Eyes WHAT IS ABOUT COUNTRY Y VS. COUNTRY X?

YOU REPEATEDLY WROTE:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


NOW WITH EMPHASIS:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


Since "maybe" is the key word; how can it be worth more American livds? IT IS WORTH MORE AMERICAN LIVES TO "MAYBE" SAVE MORE AMERICAN LIVES. Would you volunteer YES, IF I WERE YOUNGER, THIS OLD BUZZARD WOULD VOLUNTEER or send your family members for this "maybe?" NO! I WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO MY OWN FAMILY MEMBERS TO DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES RATHER THAN SEND THEM ANYWHERE.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 19 Jan, 2007 05:43 pm
============
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi bad guys are still Iraqis.

Again, I'm not talking about rates. It's about country y vs country x.


Rolling Eyes WHAT IS ABOUT COUNTRY Y VS. COUNTRY X?

YOU REPEATEDLY WROTE:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


NOW WITH EMPHASIS:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


Since "maybe" is the key word; how can it be worth more American livds? IT IS WORTH MORE AMERICAN LIVES TO "MAYBE" SAVE MORE AMERICAN LIVES. Would you volunteer YES, IF I WERE YOUNGER, THIS OLD BUZZARD WOULD VOLUNTEER or send your family members for this "maybe?" NO! I WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO MY OWN FAMILY MEMBERS TO DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES RATHER THAN SEND THEM ANYWHERE.

=========== repetitions if any, caused by able2know.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 19 Jan, 2007 05:54 pm
hamburger wrote:
Quote:

...
i did not know that there are enough criminals in the united states to spoil an election - i'm learning something new every day !
hbg

There aren't! But there are enough voters in the US who are opposed to the death penalty to spoil an election.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:05 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
The Iraqi bad guys are still Iraqis.

Again, I'm not talking about rates. It's about country y vs country x.


Rolling Eyes WHAT IS ABOUT COUNTRY Y VS. COUNTRY X?

YOU REPEATEDLY WROTE:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


NOW WITH EMPHASIS:
Quote:
The murder rate in the US is one of the highest in any industrialized country. Show this to be wrong.


Since "maybe" is the key word; how can it be worth more American livds? IT IS WORTH MORE AMERICAN LIVES TO "MAYBE" SAVE MORE AMERICAN LIVES. Would you volunteer YES, IF I WERE YOUNGER, THIS OLD BUZZARD WOULD VOLUNTEER or send your family members for this "maybe?" NO! I WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO MY OWN FAMILY MEMBERS TO DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES RATHER THAN SEND THEM ANYWHERE.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:16 pm
The above duplications of my posts to cicerone imposter were caused by my multiple failed attempts yesterday to complete my posts. The cause of that problem, whatever it was, appears to be corrected now.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:17 pm
Some people are just too dumb to have a discussion with. I give up!
0 Replies
 
xingu
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:23 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Some people are just too dumb to have a discussion with. I give up!


I know exactly how you feel.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:25 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Some people are just too dumb to have a discussion with. I give up!

You give up because you are too dumb?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:29 pm
xingu wrote:
cicerone imposter wrote:
Some people are just too dumb to have a discussion with. I give up!


I know exactly how you feel.

Are you too dumb too?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 05:40 pm
The New Bush Strategy in Iraq: Is Victory Still Possible?
A CSIS Report
Anthony H. Cordesman
Washington, DC, January 17, 2007
President Bush has presented a new strategy for the war in Iraq that may
be able to defeat the insurgency and reverse Iraq's drift towards large-
scale civil war. His speeches to date , however, raise many questions as
to both the risks it will create over the coming months and the
real-world ability to actually implement his plans.

The new Bush approach is considerably more sophisticated and
comprehensive than the one the President could fit into his 20-minute
address - which had been cut back from a longer 40-minute version. It
combines political, military, and economic action in ways that do offer
a significant hope of success.

The following analysis examines the strengths and weaknesses of the
proposals in the President's speech in detail, but also adds important
further details and clarifications by Secretary of State Rice, Secretary
of Defense Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Peter Pace, and MNF-I
commander General George Casey.

A reading of these additional details is more reassuring than the bare
bones of the President's speeches, but it is clear that the new strategy
and plan do involve critical risks, the most important of which are
political and military.

The most important such risk is that the success of his strategy depends
on the cooperation of a weak and divided Iraqi government that may not
agree with his desire to deprive Shi'ite militias of their growing
power, on Iraqi forces that so far have shown little fighting capability
and key elements of which are corrupt or allied with Shiite and Kurdish
militias, and on the acceptance of a major US urban warfare campaign by
a divided Iraqi people, many of which are hostile to the US and the
presence of US forces.

The overall changes in US deployment plans are complicated, since they
involve retaining and moving forces already in theater as well as adding
new forces, but involve some very high capability Army and USMC units.
Their stated mission is to, "help Iraqis clear and secure neighborhoods
while protecting the local population. These actions will build the
capacity available to commanders to 20 brigade or regimental combat
teams to assist in achieving stability and security and accelerate Iraqi
Security Force development."

The Bush plan will add two brigades and some 7,000 more combat troops to
the force in Baghdad relatively quickly. This will raise the 24,000 US
troops now in Baghdad to a total of 31,000. There are some three
additional brigade equivalents in the pipeline, with around 10,500 more
troops. These may deploy to Baghdad, to Anbar, or not at all depending
on the pace of events.

Even if all deploy, adding 17,500 more US troops into Baghdad might not
be enough. There were close to 50,000 US troops in Baghdad during the
peak of the fighting in 2004-2005, plus more than two brigades, covering
an area about half the size of the one that the US now plans to clear.
At most, the President's plan would provide 41,500.

In addition, the new plan raises serious political issues of a different
kind since both Prime Minister Maliki's advisors and those of Hakim's
SCIRI party have previously gone on record as opposing an increase in US
troops. It will almost certainly mean a major confrontation with Sadr
and the Mahdi militia, which can now draw upon up to 60,000 fighters
nationwide.

More generally, much depends on the overall ability of the Iraqi
government in achieving political conciliation in the entire country,
and removing much of the popular support for insurgents and militias,
and on the ability to coopt or disband the less extreme Shi'ite militias
and Sunni security forces.

The new Bush strategy focuses on Baghdad with a limited increase in US
forces in Anbar, and calls for Iraqi forces to take formal control of
the security mission in November. It is not clear that increasing US
military strength from 132,000 to 153,000 will be enough to win even in
Baghdad.

The combined total of US and Iraqi strength does not seem sufficient to
guarantee similar victory in the rest of Iraq, and particularly in Basra
(where the British will soon start making major cuts in their forces),
Kirkuk, Mosul, and Iraq's other major urban areas. Given the poor
performance of Iraqi forces in Baghdad even over the last 10 days, and
the failure of Iraqi forces to effectively take control of the security
mission in other provinces, it seems very doubtful that the Iraqi forces
can make the required progress by November.

As for the new "battle of Baghdad," everything hinges on whether the
Iraqi government will appoint a military commander and two deputy
commanders for their capital who will actually fight, and can or will
deploy three more Iraqi Army and National Police brigades across
Baghdad's nine districts.

The President's plan calls for a total of 18 Iraqi Army and National
Police brigades, but many of these units can't or won't really fight,
and many are at only a fraction of their authorized manning. There are
currently 42,000 men in these Iraqi forces in Baghdad. Adding two
brigades will add at most 8,000 men, bringing the total to 31,000.

The plan also relies heavily on the 30,000 men in the Baghdad police
forces in Baghdad, These Iraqi forces are to operate from local police
stations - conducting patrols, setting up checkpoints, and going
door-to- door to gain the trust of Baghdad residents. The reality is
that the National Police still have ties to Shi'ite militias and death
squads, and the regular police are ineffective, corrupt, and not
properly trained or equipped for the mission. In reality, even if all
the planned US forces, and Iraqi Army, National Police, and regular
police forces do show up, the total mix of forces may still be
inadequate to bring lasting security to a greater urban area with 5-6
million inhabitants.

The President also was scarcely realistic in saying that US troops would
support or "help" Iraqi forces, rather than lead them and bear the brunt
of combat. Iraqi army forces previously only deployed two of six
promised battalions at the start of Operation Together Forward and took
months to build up to around 7,000 troops. Putting a US battalion of
400- 600 men as embeds in each of the nine Military Districts in Baghdad
may help, but it is still US forces that will do almost all of the hard
fighting. This is likely to sharply increase US casualties, at least
initially.

As for national efforts, the President's plan to increase the embedding
of American advisers in Iraqi Army units - and partner a Coalition
brigade with every Iraqi Army division, and giving US commanders and
civilians greater flexibility to spend funds for economic assistance may
also help. There are, however, many questions as to the real world
ability to deploy enough qualified US advisors and translators, and
increase the effectiveness of Iraqi forces. At the end of December, the
Iraqi Army had trained and equipped 132,700 men, but many had deserted,
many of the remainder were ineffective, and even effective units were
often largely Shi'ite or Kurdish and had mixed loyalties.

It is far from clear that the US can rapidly succeed in raising Iraqi
army division strength from 10 to 13, brigades from 36 to 41, and
battalions from 112 to 132. Out of the 92 Iraqi brigades now said to be
"in the lead," as few as 10 may have high effectiveness, although some
experts say 20-30. The President did not discuss the problems in
reforming the police, or reforming the Ministry of the Interior to
increase transparency and accountability and transform the National
Police. These are all "high risk" measures.

The Iraqi Army is also only part of the story. The 24,400 man National
Police will present a major force development problem because of its
ties to Shi'ite militias and extremists. No one knows how many of the
135,000 men trained and equipped for the police remain in service but
absentee and desertion rates often ranged from 25% to 50%, and the same
is true of the 28,900 men trained for other MOI forces. Further problems
exist in dealing with the 135,000 armed security personnel in the
various facilities protection forces, many of which are loyal to Sunni,
Shi'ite, or Kurdish factions rather than the central government.

The President's use of benchmarks and the implied threat that the US
will leave if Iraqi does not support it and cannot takeover security
responsibility by November may backfire. It creates a strong incentive
for the elements hostile to the US to keep up military pressure, and for
Sadr and other Shi'ites hostile to the US to push the Maliki government
to not cooperate. The Maliki government may also react by trying to use
the US increase in forces in Baghdad and Anbar to focus on Sunni
insurgents and defeat them, while leaving Shi'ite militias and forces
intact, creating constant tension between the US and Iraqi governments.

That said, these very real risks in the President's new strategy do not
mean it cannot succeed over time. They simply mean the odds of success
are probably less than even. The President did make it clear that he
expects much more intense urban fighting, and understands that a more
powerful and proactive US military effort to "win, hold, build" in
Baghdad could significantly increase US casualties. What is not clear is
what will happen if the Iraqi people turn against US forces, or the
insurgents simply lie low and outwait the US and government forces in
what is fundamentally a long war of attrition.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 06:01 pm
TALK IS CHEAP:
By RALPH PETERS

January 17, 2007 -- WASHINGTON'S elite may disdain religious believers, but its own bizarre dogma is far more irrational than faith in God: The D.C. establishment worships the imaginary power of negotiations to make peace in the Middle East.

In the tradition of intolerant believers everywhere, our governing elite rejects all evidence that its faith in diplomacy might be misplaced. Now the pagan priests on the Potomac are chanting, Only negotiations can fix Iraq.

It's possible that nothing is going to fix Iraq, but "Why can't we all just get along" parleys have about as much chance of bringing the factions together and ending Iranian and Syrian mischief as a rabbi has of being elected king of Saudi Arabia.

There is no hope of pacifying Iraq through negotiations. None. Zero. The country has no tradition of inter-communal compromise - and the fighting factions and foreign governments involved have no incentive to compromise, so there is no way short of the massive use of force to bully them into compromising. Even if we got them all to agree to a patched-together accord, each faction would only honor it as long it seemed to be to its advantage.

But they're not going to agree, anyway, until a great deal more blood has been shed. The window for peace has closed.

Shia Arabs are convinced that they're destined to be the winners who take all. Iraq's Sunni Arabs believe they can regain power through violence. The Kurds won't give up what they've gained, and they'd like a bit more, thanks.

Iran believes the United States is ready to quit, leaving Tehran the new hegemon in Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oh, and the religious fanatics in power will soon have nukes.

The lesson Syria drew from Iraq is that America has forgotten what it takes to win wars and falters when the going gets tough. Even the Israelis have lost their guts. With Hezbollah up and Lebanon sinking, Damascus thinks it just has to keep on making mischief.

The only party interested in a compromise settlement in Iraq happens to be us.

Where have negotiations led to lasting peace in the Middle East? Even the surly accord between Israel and Egypt only came about because both sides were worn out - and the Sinai still requires armed peacekeepers, more than three decades later.

The important point about that one reasonably successful Mideast settlement is that the players on both sides understood that they'd reached the end of the game. That's when Washington-brokered talks can help - when those involved all want an agreement, but need a fig leaf they can wear domestically ("The Americans made me do it . . . ").

Otherwise, the fate of negotiations in the Middle East has been consistent failure. Can anyone honestly claim that the region's better off today because of our diplomacy?

Lately, pundits have cited Churchill's line that "to jaw-jaw is better than to war-war." But Winnie was no Neville Chamberlain: He understood that only a position of strength makes jaw-jaw a viable option. And he certainly understood that wars had to be won.

Negotiation only comes into its own when the fighting's essentially over. And this war's barely begun.

So why, despite overwhelming empirical evidence that talks won't solve Iraq's problems, do politicians, diplomats, profs and pundits unite to insist that "negotiations are the only answer"?

It's not because they're visionaries smarter than the rest of us. The Washington establishment is composed almost exclusively of people who've built successful careers on words, not deeds - on negotiations, not action.

We're all prisoners of our experience to some degree. Stir in the massive egos crowding out common sense in D.C., and personal histories come with titanium bars.

Diplomats, of course, negotiate for a living - but so do lawyers. (Most legal affairs end in compromise settlements, not courtroom fireworks.) And our elected politicians are, overwhelmingly, lawyers. Academics also talk for a living (primarily to each other), while pundits live off words, criticizing the deeds of others. Even political appointees tend to have law or business backgrounds - career paths where successful negotiations lead to wealth and prestige.

And none of these various players believe they need guidance from the janitorial staff or the blue-collar workers down on the production line.

That means they don't want military advice. With no meaningful experience of the world's physical savagery, the Washington elite can't conceive of a problem that can't be solved the way its members always solved problems in law offices, legislatures, corporate offices and plum embassy jobs: by talking. Those pesky generals just complicate things.

Of course, all of those legislators with law degrees, business execs filling Cabinet posts, career diplomats, think-tank academics and journalists who kid themselves that they're D.C. insiders all have one other thing in common: They were much too important to serve our country in uniform.

So we're left with the cult of jaw-jaw - which just leads to more (and worse) war-war. For all of the advanced degrees in town, Washington doesn't really think, but accepts the doctrine laid down by the commissars. And the bipartisan party line runs that there's no problem diplomacy can't solve.

Talks won't fix Iraq - indeed, attempts to placate our enemies will certainly make things worse. That doesn't mean that military force will solve Baghdad's problems, either. But unrestricted force has a better chance than a special ambassador's blather.

Talkers dominate Washington, but the world is changed by doers. At present, the doers are on the side of our enemies. Negotiations have no power to fix Iraq or the greater Middle East. The series of debacles ahead, from Beirut to Baghdad and from Tel Aviv to Tehran, is going to prove just that. Again.

Ralph Peters' latest book is "Never Quit The Fight."
0 Replies
 
Wilso
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jan, 2007 07:52 pm
Quote:
Christopher Layne: Plotting a course for Middle East disaster

The US President's troop build-up in Iraq is a prescription for more sectarian violence and terrorism



DURING his recent prime-time address, in which he announced that US troops in Iraq would be increased by 21,500, President George W. Bush rightly observed that his administration had made mistakes during the nearly four-year occupation. His decision to escalate the war is the most recent example. But the biggest mistake by far was Bush's decision to invade Iraq in the first place. Because of that decision, the US finds itself trapped in a war it cannot win, and one which - according to Bush - it cannot afford to lose.



The US also finds itself caught in a crossfire, both politically and literally. After supporting the Shi'ites initially and helping them come to power, the US has tacked back to the Sunnis in hopes of ending the insurgency (which was directed both at the US occupation and, self-defensively, against the Shia-dominated Government in Baghdad) and to stay on the good side of Washington's regional allies (thereby restraining them from intervening in support of their Sunni brethren). This is why the US demands that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki establish a unity government and seek reconciliation with the Sunnis.

Here, Bush's agenda conflicts directly with that of Maliki and the Shia political elite. Despite his pledges, Maliki will not meet the benchmarks that Bush says are vital to his latest victory plan, nor will he keep his pledge to go after the Mahdi Army loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr. Maliki owes his premiership to his political alliance with al-Sadr. The Shi'ites want US troops to crush the Sunnis and win their civil war for them. But they do not want the US getting in the way of their own power grab in post-war Iraq.

Bush's threat to pull the rug from under Maliki is hollow, because the Shi'ites can turn to Iran for support (and already have done so). The Bush administration simply does not grasp the political realities in Iraq. The Sunnis and Shi'ites are locked in a Hobbesian struggle: a bloody civil war seen by both sides as a zero-sum game. This is a war in which neither side's agenda accords with Washington's but in which both are adept at playing the Bush administration to further their ambitions.

Before his speech, Bush told Maliki that he must either play ball with the US administration or "you're out". If Maliki fails to keep his promises to Bush, plan B is to replace Maliki and his cabinet with a presumably more pliant Iraqi government.

So much for the fiction that Iraq is, as Bush repeatedly claims, a sovereign democracy.
In effect, Iraq has become an American colonial dependency. There is no end state in the foreseeable future that will permit the withdrawal of US troops. There is only the prospect of an endless, costly war in the pursuit of an objective that cannot be gained.

Or, if Bush's threats against Iran are to be taken seriously - and they should be - the prospect of a wider regional war that will turn the Islamic world decisively against the US in a true clash of civilisations.

Pandering to public fears - and again invoking the spectre of 9/11 - Bush claims that if the US leaves Iraq, terrorists will use that country as a safe haven to attack the American homeland. Here, the administration has utterly failed to understand the roots of terrorism. It is the American presence in the Middle East - a region with profound resentment towards the imperial overlordship of the Western powers - that drives terrorism, not its lack of democracy. The US indifference to attaining a just peace between Israel and Palestine (an issue that went unmentioned in Bush's speech), support for authoritarian regimes in the region (Saudi Arabia, Egypt) and the occupation of Iraq are what fuels terrorism.

If Bush is serious about reducing the terrorist threat, he should realise that US policy in the Middle East needs a drastic overhaul.

First, the US must begin to free itself from dependence on hydrocarbons (read Middle Eastern crude oil).
Second, it needs to reduce its military footprint in the region, including a phased, orderly withdrawal of troops that would result in all US forces being out of Iraq by mid-2008. The US should rely on naval and air power alone to prevent the emergence of an oil hegemon in the Persian Gulf, and it should stay out of the region's intractable internal politics.

If the US withdrawal leads to a bigger war in Iraq, Washington should let nature take its course. It is not in the US's interest to be caught in the middle of a Sunni-Shia power struggle in Iraq. In the real world - obviously a different place from that in which the administration lives - the US is not going to stay in Iraq forever and, when it leaves, a conflict may ensue in which Saudi Arabia and others aid the Sunnis as Iran is already aiding the Shi'ites. Bush is only postponing the day of reckoning, not averting it.

Unlike Bush, Americans understand that the US needs a new approach to the Middle East. A recent Pew Charitable Trust survey found that "by a 45 per cent to 32 per cent margin, more Americans believe that the best way to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks on the US is to decrease, not increase, America's military presence overseas". The same Pew survey also found that "an increasing number of Americans see non-military approaches, such as decreasing US dependence on Middle East oil and avoiding involvement with the problems of other countries", as effective strategies for reducing the terrorist threat to the US.

Similarly, polls taken immediately after Bush's speech show that, just as before it, a majority of Americans oppose his plan to escalate the Iraq war.

Perhaps the US is following the wrong policy. Instead of trying to export democracy to Iraq, the US needs to import democracy into its own foreign policy process. It remains to be seen whether Congress has the courage to compel the administration to adhere to the popular will.

But one thing is clear: if it continues on the course that Bush has charted, the US is headed for disaster in Iraq, probable war with Iran and catastrophe in the Middle East. When asked why his latest plan for victory will succeed, Bush responded: "Because it has to." That is not the way the real world works. But then, the line between a faith-based foreign policy and a delusional one is very thin.

Christopher Layne, a contributing editor of The American Conservative, is associate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University's George Bush School of Government. He is author of The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present (Cornell University Press).

0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 21 Jan, 2007 02:42 am
From today's WaPo, page B 6

http://i18.tinypic.com/333yc7m.jpg
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Sun 21 Jan, 2007 04:35 am
ican wrote:
TALK IS CHEAP:
By RALPH PETERS


Peters bases his argument for slaughter and destruction on faulty logic, and a disregard for the facts.

He begins with saying that, "it's possible that nothing is going to fix Iraq," and then goes into bringing the Iraqis together, not by his straw man "Why can't we all just get along," but by the massive use of force to bully them into compromising." Well, if it's possible that nothing is going to fix Iraq, then bringing the Iraqis together would be futile to that end, whether it's done by his straw man, or by more slaughter and destruction.

It seems to me that he's merely wanting to indulge his blood lust at the hands of the US and co's. forces.

He then goes on to say that, "the only party interested in a compromise settlement in Iraq happens to be us." Contrary to his assertions, the Iraqi government is attempting a compromise settlement involving oil revenue distribution in a law that has just been drafted. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the parties involved will accept the law. Most likely, it's going to be revised, and personally I don't hold much expectation for a breakthrough through this law, wether it or some alteration of it is passed or not. The mere fact that this bill has been proposed flies in the face of Peters' conviction that "the only party interested in a compromise settlement in Iraq happens to be us."

To further his obtuse point he asks that, "where have negotiations led to lasting peace in the Middle East?" and goes on to state, "even the surly accord between Israel and Egypt only came about because both sides were worn out - and the Sinai still requires armed peacekeepers, more than three decades later." Peace has lasted between Egypt and Israel so far since their 1979 peace treaty. And I am not aware of any " required armed peacekeepers" there since the last of the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF), which was established by the UN in 1956, vacated the Sinai in 1967.

He also failed to point out the 1994 peace treaty between Israel and Jordan that has since then held peace between those two nations. And neither required his supposed "fig leaf to wear domestically ('The Americans made me do it. . .')" But then again, these facts would get in the way of his rant for blood.

So then, he comes to the conclusion that, "otherwise, the fate of negotiations in the Middle East has been consistent failure," and further asks, "can anyone honestly claim that the region's better off today because of our diplomacy?"

In what instances other than the failed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians has "the fate of negotiations in the Middle East has been consistent failure?"

A better question for him to ask is "can anyone honestly claim that the region's better off today because of our general meddling in the region, and our pro-Zionist favoritism at the expense of the human rights of the Palestinian people?

Peters goes on to offer a false aphorism by saying that, "negotiation only comes into its own when the fighting's essentially over," ignoring the instances of stalemate, which were the situations between Israel and Egypt and Jordan that led them to sign their respective peace treaties. But for Peters what's more important is more blood letting, "and this war's barely begun." He evokes the ghost of Churchill and spins a quote from him, that "to jaw-jaw is better than to war-war," adding his qualifier, "but Winnie was no Neville Chamberlain: He understood that only a position of strength makes jaw-jaw a viable option. And he certainly understood that wars had to be won." Obviously, ol' Winnie didn't live to see the spectacle of VietNam and the war that wasn't won. Had he lived to now, he'd have seen the US and VietNam enter into friendly trade negotiations some forty years subsequent.

A more prudent approach would be to see the impasse between the various factions in Iraq for what it is: a stalemate, and proceed with negotiations from this point, instead of proceeding with more slaughter and destruction, which admittedly, won't satisfy that pang for spilt blood felt by some of our more sanguine compatriots, wich will in any case, as Peters has inadvertently pointed out, lead to negotiations, talks.

What's funny is that he calls his illogical points and outright fallacious historical instances "overwhelming empirical evidence that talks won't solve Iraq's problems," and then goes on to ask his rhetorical straw man, why "do politicians, diplomats, profs and pundits unite to insist that 'negotiations are the only answer'? Politicians, diplomats, profs and pundits united don't insist that negotiations are the only answer necessarily. Some of them have come to realize that slaughter and destruction have run their course in Iraq, and the prudent thing left is negotiation, "jaw-jaw," as he so derisively quotes, in all irony, his hero Winnie.

He then goes on to make the obligatory insinuations, more straw man arguments, more illogical thinking, e.g. "massive egos crowding out common sense," and "none of these various players believe they need guidance from the janitorial staff or the blue-collar workers down on the production line. That means they don't want military advice." "Those pesky generals just complicate things." He ignores, of course, those generals that argue for diplomacy and negotiations over more slaughter and destruction. They'd just get in the way of his rant for more war.

Penultimately he says that, "talks won't fix Iraq - indeed, attempts to placate our enemies will certainly make things worse," failing to realize that the people we are trying to placate are the people of Iraq themselves, many of whom have been driven to violence because of the stinking mess we have made of the place. Further, he says, 'that doesn't mean that military force will solve Baghdad's problems, either. But unrestricted force has a better chance than a special ambassador's blather," contradicting his assertion at the beginning of his rant that, "it's possible that nothing is going to fix Iraq." Hmm, "unrestricted force has a better chance than a special ambassador's blather" at not fixing Iraq. Ok. At the very least it may have a better chance of satisfying Peters' thirst for carnage and destruction.

Ultimately Peters' states that, "talkers dominate Washington, but the world is changed by doers," ignoring the fact that "talkers"--his contemptuous term for diplomats--are doers also. Diplomacy is an act. Slaughter and destruction aren't the only acts available to the situation in Iraq. He further states, "at present, the doers are on the side of our enemies," ignoring the fact that of our Shia and Kurdish friends that are the powers that be in Iraq are also doers, doers of oppression and disenfranchisement of, as well as violence against the Sunni minority in that country. The only way to bring peace by violence to Iraq and maintain the present status quo is to slaughter the entire Sunni population, because even if the Shia and Kurds were to attempt to sledge the Sunni into submission, they would still put up a fight, as witnessed by the Israelis through their own oppression and subjugation of the Palestinian people. Peters goes on to say, "negotiations have no power to fix Iraq or the greater Middle East," contrary to the historical examples I've summarized above. "The series of debacles ahead, from Beirut to Baghdad and from Tel Aviv to Tehran, is going to prove just that. Again." What the series of debacles from Beirut to Baghdad and from Tel Aviv to Tehran has proven is that military measures will not solve the problem of injustice, oppression and subjugation in any of those places in the Middle East, and that ultimately only negotiated terms of justice, freedom and enfranchisement can reverse those transgressions.

Slaughter and destruction are expensive.
0 Replies
 
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Sun 21 Jan, 2007 06:35 am
Infrablue:

Excellent, excellent post.

Thank you.

Joe Nation
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Sun 21 Jan, 2007 07:59 am
Ditto
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Sun 21 Jan, 2007 08:07 am
Iraq Shi'ites reach political deal

Quote:
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The political movement of Iraqi cleric and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr said it would end a two-month boycott of parliament on Sunday, smoothing over a rift with its Shi'ite allies in the U.S.-backed government.


The political reconciliation with a group viewed with suspicion in Washington came the day after U.S. forces suffered one of their deadliest days in Iraq. A total of 19 soldiers were killed, including 12 on a helicopter and five in a clash in a Shi'ite holy city that the U.S. military blamed on militiamen.

Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has been under pressure to crack down on the Mehdi Army, a militia loyal to Sadr that the United States sees as the biggest threat to security in Iraq. But his past dependence on Sadr's political support has made that difficult.

The Sadrists announced a boycott in November to press their demand for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and to protest against a meeting between Maliki and President Bush.

"We are ending our boycott of the ministries and the parliament," Bahaa al-Araji, a senior member of the Sadrist group, told a news conference with the ruling Shi'ite Alliance.

Parliament speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani said an all-party committee would discuss calls for a timetable for U.S. troops to withdraw and the renewal of the U.N. mandate for the U.S. presence in Iraq, which has in the past been at the request of Baghdad.

"This is a new beginning," he told the news conference. "We want to say to the world that an Iraqi solution for Iraqi problems is the key, and others must support these solutions."

DEADLY DAY FOR U.S. FORCES

The U.S. military on Sunday revised the number killed in Saturday's Black Hawk helicopter crash from 13 to 12. It said another five soldiers were killed and three wounded in the clash at a government building in Kerbala.

It was unclear whether the helicopter was shot down. U.S. military spokeswoman Lieutenant-Colonel Josslyn Aberle said the cause was still under investigation.

Two other soldiers were killed elsewhere on Saturday.

It was the deadliest day for U.S. forces since Bush announced he was sending about 20,000 more troops to Iraq to try to prevent all-out sectarian civil war between Shi'ite Muslims and the once-dominant Sunni Arab minority.

His plans have run into resistance from opposition Democrats who now control Congress and skepticism in Washington about how far Maliki can make good on promises to disarm Shi'ite militias.

The U.S. military said on Sunday a brigade of around 3,200 soldiers had arrived in Baghdad, the first of some 17,000 planned reinforcements for the city, and it would be fully operational by the start of February.

The Kerbala clash came as pilgrims converged on the city 110 km (70 miles) south of Baghdad at the start of the 10-day rite of Ashura, a high point of the Shi'ite calendar and a previous target for attacks by al Qaeda and other Sunni militants.

"The Provincial Joint Coordination Center in Kerbala was attacked with grenades, small arms and indirect fire by an illegally armed militia group," the U.S. military said in a statement, apparently blaming Shi'ite militiamen rather than Sunni insurgents to whom it usually refers as "terrorists."

"Five U.S. soldiers were killed and three wounded while repelling the attack," it said without mentioning attackers killed or detained.

U.S. officials said no more about the identity of the assailants. "We do know they're militiamen but we're not going to go any further than that," Major Steven Lamb said, adding investigations were continuing.

Kerbala Governor Aqil al-Khazali said it appeared the attackers were masquerading as Americans, but did not identify them. He said 8,000 police and soldiers were on hand to provide security for Ashura.

Relations have become strained between Washington and the Iraqi government as the United States presses Baghdad to rein in Shi'ite militias blamed for death squad killings and tries to limit the influence of neighboring Shi'ite Iran.

Maliki vowed this month to crack down on both Shi'ite and Sunni gunmen in a major U.S.-backed operation. Sadr enjoys a mass following in Iraq and some backing from Iran.

In other violence on Sunday, a roadside bomb killed one British soldier and wounded four in the southern city of Basra, the British military said.


Iraqi draft oil law gives central government revenue control

Quote:
An Iraqi cabinet-level committee proposed a draft law Friday that would allow the national government in Iraq [JURIST news archive] to control oil revenues. Negotiations concerning the draft law have been a source of tension [JURIST report] in Iraq for months as most Kurds and many Shiites want to retain control of the country's oil resources [Global Policy backgrounder]. On the other hand, Sunni Arabs, who do not dominate the oil-rich regions of the country, insist on central oversight.

Recent debate has centered on the establishment of a federal committee, called the Federal Oil and Gas Council, to review oil contracts. Kurds did not want to give the committee the power to "approve" contracts, so the draft law instead allows regions to initiate and guide the process of awarding oil contracts and gives the committee the power to review and reject contracts. The Iraqi cabinet and the country's parliament [official website, in English] must approve the draft before it becomes law. If the draft passes, enforcement might prove difficult in Iraq's wartime environment. The New York Times has more.


It seems to me that Maliki may be trying to heal rifts; if he is, it is a good move. (of course I could be all wrong)
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 21 Jan, 2007 01:00 pm
What most Bush supporters fail to understand is the simple fact that 21,500 more troops doesn't mean that many more "fighting" troops. A good portion of those will be "support." To keep it simple, let's just that 25 percent will be support, then 16,125 will actually be there to engage in warfare for six months or less. Some professionals have already said they are ill equipped and prepared.

Another fact; over 60 percent of Iraqis support the killing of American troops.

The "temporary" assignment of 16 thousand troops on the ground will not quell the civil strife, but will instead get more of them killed and maimed.
0 Replies
 
 

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