xingu wrote:
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There is no reason to suspect that what the NYT reported is inaccurate. Does your source give the Baghdad morgue figures for June and July?
I have encountered too many examples of NYT pseudology (i.e., falsities or lies), to trust their reporting on anything.
IBC has not given the Baghdad morgue figures since sometime before May. I'm thinking they discovered that doing that previously led them to count large numbers of Baghdad violent deaths twice.
Also, as I posted weeks ago, I think that despite claims otherwise, many of those morgue counts included non-violent death counts. During the years 2003, 2004, 2005 there were 455,366 total Iraq deaths of which 418,507 were none violent and 36,859 were violent. So it would have been easy for some reporters and some morgue officials alike to confuse some of the non-violent deaths with violent deaths. In 2006, I think that pseudology has occurred more frequently.
Gelisgesti wrote:
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Ican .... what possible macabre interest could you have in dead Iraqis? If you could get an accounting with 100 % accuracy ........ wtf would you do with it.
Just curious
I've answered a question like this before. First of all, I've merely been explaining why I trust the leftist IBC counts more than the leftist NYT counts.
Secondly, my interest in the IBC counts, whether they be 100% or 50% or some-where-in- between % of the actual figures, is strictly in terms of their long term trend. A good trend (i.e., improving trend) is obviously a decreasing trend, and a bad trend (i.e., worsening trend) is obviously an increasing trend. I'm looking for and rooting for a good trend. So far, there does not appear to me to be any definite increasing or decreasing long term trend.
NEGOTIATION WITH IT
A three act play on negotiations with IT: the Islamo-Totalitarians.
Act I.
Scene 1: At the American Embassy in Paris.
Jack: As you know, our objective here is completion of discussion of our responsibility for negotiating here in Paris tomorrow at the Swiss embassy with IT. Together, we three have complete responsibility for representing the USA.
Jill: I have one question. How do we know that whatever we end up negotiating with IT will be acceptable to our Congress and President?
Wizo: This is crazy!
Jack: The Congress passed a law that says so, and the President refused to veto it.
Wizo: They're all nuts.
Jill: Let's go over one more time what our initial position will be.
Jack: We will require IT to denounce any future killing or making war against non-combatants, and any continuation of current killing or making war against non-combatants. Also, we will require IT to completely disarm.
Wizo: In your dreams!
Jill: What are we going to offer them in return?
Jack: We will pullout all our military from Afghanistan and Iraq except the usual dozen Marines in each embassy.
Wizo: Do you really think IT will agree to that? Bah!
Jack: OK! we'll meet with IT tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. in the Swiss embassy.
Scene 2: At the Swiss Embassy in Paris.
Jack: Good Morning! I'm Jack, this is Jill and this is Wizo.
Moh: I am Moh. They are Osa and Ram.
Osa: We want all Americans to leave Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine including Sinai.
Ram: We want all coalition forces to be no closer than 1,000 miles from the borders of any of these countries.
Jack: We want you to stop killing non-combatants wherever they are and disarm.
Moh: We will not stop the killing until all Americans leave our lands.
Wizo: We will not leave until you stop killing and disarm.
Jill: My dear God, surely we can come to some kind of agreement.
Osa: You Americans must accept our devotion to Allah and our one-world religion and culture, and eventually convert to it.
Moh: Today's meeting is over.
Jack: We will meet here tomorrow at 9 a.m.
Scene 3: Later at the American Embassy in Paris.
Wizo: I told you guys all this is futile.
Jack: We shall see. I'm not ready to conclude that.
Jill: There must be something they want that we can give them to get what we want and end the terror of IT.
Jack: OK! See you tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. at the Swiss Embassy.
Act II.
Scene 1: At the Swiss Embassy in Paris.
Moh: Well what have you Americans ...
Osa: You 300 million Americans have spent more than 300 billion on the first three years of your fruitless escapades in Iraq and Afghanistan. That's more than $333 per American per year. Collectively, we are a population of say 100 million. So instead pay us 100 billion dollars over three years, and we will save you lots of money, and stop the killing, if you move your troops at least 1,000 miles from the borders of any of the countries we specified yesterday.
Wizo: You're all nuts! And you haven't even promised to disarm. That's extortion. Why do you think we should pay you and trust you to do what you say?
Ram: You Americans are nuts about money... right? Well we have offered you billions of dollars in savings if you'll just get out of our countries and leave us alone. That's incentive enough for you to trust us.
Jill: Hmmm ...
Jack: We'll think it over. This meeting is adjourned. See you tomorrow.
Scene 2. Later at the American Embassy in Paris.
Wizo: It's extortion damn it! And later, like extortionists everywhere, they will extort us all the more to get what more they want to get them to continue to keep their promises. Hell, that Osa bastard told us "Americans must accept our devotion to Allah and our one-world religion and culture, and eventually convert to it." I believe that would-be tyrannical piece of ... pig-poop--I chose that word out of respect for your feelings, Jill--I believe he means every word he said.
Jill: We'll save a huge number of American lives and a lot of money, if we accept their offer. I think we should accept their offer and take a chance they will keep their promises.
Jack: But they haven't agreed to disarm. That could mean they intend to build up their weapons for a later war using the 33 billion a year we pay them.
Jill: Look! Just like we weakoned the will and self-reliance of major segments of our population with welfare, this measily 33 billion a year will do the same to them. Let's agree!
Wizo: Agree? Like hell! Like hell it will weakon the will and self-reliance of these fanatics! It will merely enable them to arm themselves to the point where they can subsequently blow away our major population centers and populations.
Jack: You exaggerate! Besides by that time, we will all be dead from natural causes. I think Jill is right. Two out of three of us agree. That's what we're going to do.
Wizo: I quit! I've got great grandchildren to think of. Don't you care about your posterity?
Jack: You cannot quit without breaking the law! See you all tomorrow at the Swiss embassy.
Act III.
Scene 1: at the Swiss embassy
(Write it yourself and don't forget to write Scene 2 in which the agreement is signed, and Scene 3 about three years after Scene 2.) ...
Scene 2: ...
Scene 3: ...
Iran's ally, Iraq, says Iran is not interfering in Iraq. This contradicts Brig. Gen. Michael Barbero, deputy director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said Iran is heavily involved in funding and arming Iraqi Shiite militias. Who do we believe, the Bush administration who sold us a bill of good about WMD or Abdul Aziz al-Hakim?
ican
No one is saying we should negotiate with Osama bin Laden or the Teliban. They are conservatives and like most all conservatives they are stuck in an illogical rut when it comes to ideology and beliefs.
What must be done is to conduct ourselves in such a way so as not to create new terrorist. Invading Muslim countries, killing their women and children and looking for excuses to invade more countries is not the way to defeat terrorism. But it is an excellent way to perpetuate the wars we're fighting and dragging them on forever.
We negotiate with the Muslim societies that harbor the terrorists, not with the terrorists themselves. How hard is that to understand?
We have to remove their base of support. The average Muslim doesn't want to see the US turned to Islaam by force, they just want us to stop propping up their dictators and killing their kids; as well as stop riling up the assholes in their society!!!
Cycloptichorn
Quote:
It's easy to understand your opinion. It is difficult to understand why you hold that opinion. Why do you think we can negotiate with Muslim societies that harbor terrorists without negotiating with the IT(i.e., Islamo Totalitarians) who via fear control both the terrorists and the people in those societies.
I think this because hope is stronger than fear.
Fear will only keep people down for so long. If we can convince Muslims in general that cooperating with the US will be better for them in the long run than cooperating with terrorists, then we will have won.
We won't be able to do this while we are killing people left and right, while we ignore international laws, while we plunder their land for oil and profit. It is going to take concessions on our part, which is a part of any serious negotiation.
I also believe that many Muslims are not controlled by the terrorists and fundamentalists in their midst, but instead somewhat agree with what they are doing: fighting to end the American and Israeli occupation. It would be similar to how a crime-ridden neighborhood would feel about a vigilante or two: you may not agree with the methods, but you agree with the cause. We need to show them that the cause is bad, not because of fear of reprisal from us, but because working with us is far more profitable than working with the terrorists when it comes to accomplishing goals.
You seem to operate off of a model in which peace will be achieved once the average Muslim fears us more than they fear the terrorists, and therefore does what we say (put the terrorists out of their societies) instead of what the terrorists say. I think this attitude shows a real lack of understanding about how people and societies respond to pressure and threats.
Cheers
Cycloptichorn
xingu wrote:ican
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What must be done is to conduct ourselves in such a way so as not to create new terrorist.
...
I think platitudes will not solve the IT (i.e., Islamo Totalitarian) problem.
How shall we "conduct ourselves ... so as not to create new terrorist[s]"
Cycloptichorn wrote:
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If we can convince Muslims in general that cooperating with the US will be better for them in the long run than cooperating with terrorists, then we will have won.
I think that outcome from your approach is improbable in the lifetimes of any of our contemporaries. I do wish reality were otherwise.
...
You seem to operate off of a model in which peace will be achieved once the average Muslim fears us more than they fear the terrorists, and therefore does what we say (put the terrorists out of their societies) instead of what the terrorists say. I think this attitude shows a real lack of understanding about how people and societies respond to pressure and threats.
You have accurately described my model as far as your description goes. Subsequent to the Muslims coming to fear us more than the IT, and "put the terrorists out of their societies," we provide the help they request for keeping "the terrorists out of their societies" and for rebuilding the basic infrastructure of their societies (e.g., water, electricity, comunications, roads, railways, waterways, airways). That is, do the kind of stuff we did in Japan and Germany after WWII.
Cheers
Cycloptichorn
"We did it before and we can do it again."
"You can, I can, we all can!"
Success!
But, it will never happen. They will never cooperate with us if fear is the lever used.
I wouldn't, for sure. I would pretend to, make noises about cooperating, and work hard at sabatoging the efforts of him who was trying to keep me down through fear. And that's exactly what is happening.
Quote:I think that outcome from your approach is improbable in the lifetimes of any of our contemporaries. I do wish reality were otherwise.
Gotta start working on it sometime. I could easily live another 80 years; that's long enough to see a great deal of change happen.
Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn wrote:But, it will never happen. They will never cooperate with us if fear is the lever used.
When sufficient fear was used as the lever before it worked fine (e.g., WWI, WWII, Bosnia, Kuwait). Why not this time? And insufficient fear didn't work before (e.g., Korea, Vietnam)
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Gotta start working on it sometime. I could easily live another 80 years; that's long enough to see a great deal of change happen.
Cycloptichorn
Go for it! Maybe you'll live to 113! I'm guessing that will give you another 93 years.
Success!
Want to know why we're losing the war in Iraq?
Rummy will tell you.
ican711nm wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:But, it will never happen. They will never cooperate with us if fear is the lever used.
When sufficient fear was used as the lever before it worked fine (e.g., WWI, WWII, Bosnia, Kuwait). Why not this time? And insufficient fear didn't work before (e.g., Korea, Vietnam)
...
Gotta start working on it sometime. I could easily live another 80 years; that's long enough to see a great deal of change happen.
Cycloptichorn
Go for it! Maybe you'll live to 113! I'm guessing that will give you another 93 years.
Success!
Haha, I'm older than
[that.
Quote:When sufficient fear was used as the lever before it worked fine (e.g., WWI, WWII, Bosnia, Kuwait). Why not this time?
Different situations. We weren't threatening any of those nations, but responding to the agression of others. We didn't win any of those situations through intimidation.
Cycloptichorn
US view of Iraq: we can pull out in a year
The view on the ground: unbridled savagery
Julian Borger in Washington
Thursday August 31, 2006
The Guardian
Anybody here believ that crap?
This month McDonald's is giving away toy Hummers with every Happy Meal. Let's help American industry; buy a Hummer.
Cycloptichorn wrote:
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When sufficient fear was used as the lever before it worked fine (e.g., WWI, WWII, Bosnia, Kuwait). Why not this time? And insufficient fear didn't work before (e.g., Korea, Vietnam)
...
Different situations. We weren't threatening any of those nations, but responding to the agression of others. We didn't win any of those situations through intimidation.
Cycloptichorn
We threatened those nations that were the agressors!
We applied
sufficient fear:
in WWI to Germany;
in WWII to Germany & Japan;
in Bosnia to Serbia;
in Kuwait to Iraq.
We applied
insufficient fear:
in Korea to North Korea;
in Vietnam to North Vietnam.
We now must apply sufficient fear to IT (i.e., Islamo Totalitarians) and those nations that harbor IT. A nation that harbors IT, our enemy, is an ally of our enemy until such time as that nation begins working to purge itself of IT.
A nation that harbors IT and is not working to purge itself of IT will not be able to purge itself of IT no matter what such nations promise us or any other nations in negotiations with us or any other nations.