Cycloptichorn wrote:Imagine that this case is still going on; that Rove is indicted soon; that Iraq fails to get substantially better in the next six months. How is it possible that the Republicans aren't going to get creamed in '06? Unless the Dems f*ck it up terribly, I believe they will pick up some seats.
I have another question: what else is the NY Times not telling us for 'national security' reasons?
Cycloptichorn
cyclo
There are several fundamental barriers to change.
1) note how the folks here, like tico, foxfyre, JW, lash, timber, georgob, McG, MM and others have been moved really not at all by anything that has been revealed from WOMD through the incompetent managing of war and deaths of 2100+ military, torture, propaganda, indictments, incompetent crony appointments, the ubquitious loss of esteem and affinity for America throughout the western world, the present revelations on assaults on civil liberties and the constitution...and very much more.
2) note how these chaps turn daily to there own 'media outlets' for information and viewpoint-justification. That media machine, funded and put in place to propagate
only conservative (meaning Republican) views and spin won't disappear, and it has proved very effective.
3) the increasing corporate consolidation of mainstream media outlets seems likely to itself forward coverage of political matters in a manner highly susceptible to bullying and to forwarding viewpoints that maintain the status quo.
4) the Orwellian or 'wag the dog' dynamics facilitated through promotion of never-ending war against a mainly invisible 'enemy' (not a state, but an 'ism') along with the effectiveness of manipulating a frightened populace.
5) the designed resistance to change in electoral outcomes through redistricting and campaign financing.
6) ideological extremism of the sort where all those things in point 1) become possible (eg, it's now OK to torture humans without trial) and where dissent against the sitting powers is commonly seen as treasonous, and where leaked revelations of dishonorable or criminal activities of the administration are commonly perceived as further instances of treason or, at the very least, prima facie instances of bias. Such ideological extremism puts previously unimaginable possibilites into play - spying on citizens, Diebold electoral fraud, etc.
7) the huge shift in wealth from the lower and middle class to the wealthiest minority (in large part, the same minority class that wields power) along with the decline in organizational bodies and institutions (eg unions, independent press) which acted towards assistance for those less powerful as checks on abuses of power by the powerful.
8) the purposive concentration of power in the executive branch and the diminishment of the congress and independent judiciary.
9) the purposive defunding and disempowerment of those groups within the polity which had traditionally voted Democrat and the corollary growth in funding/organization of new groups and institutions (large what faith-based is really all about) designed to forward Republican policy/ideas.
So, the good guys (moderates, progressives, social democrats) are up against some real barriers to regaining power in the US.
It seems very unlikely to me that the status quo (meaning the present situation as I describe above) will provide enough of a tipping point to really overturn what the right has achieved in the last thirty years. I think it will take a combination of substantial and undeniable negatives, almost surely including some serious scandal, to sufficiently discredit and disempower the new conservative movement and its machinery.
But that may happen. The Abramoff scandal, which really only politically educated Americans have in sight at all presently, could blow up and hit this machine with some deep effect. Increasing economic hardship across the middle class is almost certainly needed too. Growing perception of this administration and what it represents, that is, the new conservative movement, as being dangerously extremist and fundamentally anti-American will have to come to pass. Further understanding across the electorate of the dishonesty of these guys too will be necessary.