@centrox,
Ian McEwan said:
Quote:“By 2019 the country could be in a receptive mood: 2.5 million over-18-year-olds, freshly franchised and mostly remainers; 1.5 million oldsters, mostly Brexiters, freshly in their graves,” he said.
In that case, the difference in ages of the electorate alone won't put Remain over the top.
The difference in votes for the referendum is 1.3 Million votes for Leave.
If there are going to be 2.5 Million additional over 18 year olds, and they vote 60%-40% for Remain, that's 1.5 Million new Remain votes. However, it also means 1 Million new Leave votes, for a total gain of 0.5 Million net new Remain votes.
On the other side of the age spectrum, if there will be 1.5 fewer older voters who would have voted except for their passing away, that would be 0.9 Million fewer Leave votes but also 0.6 Million fewer Remain votes, for a net loss of the Leave side of 0.3 Million votes.
Add the two together, and it comes to a net gain of 0.8 Million Remain votes, which will cut the Leave margin down to 500,000 votes still. Which doesn't mean Leave would win again, only that there has to be other factors besides all the older mostly Leave voters passing on.
I believe there will be these other factors present, and that unless there is some drastic turn of events, Remain would win a second referendum, if only because how much the UK would lose economically would be brought out in such detail to the public during two years of negotiations.