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If Trump's Climate Change Withdrawal Pushes UK to Labour, can the UK un-Brexit?

 
 
centrox
 
  3  
Reply Tue 6 Jun, 2017 02:14 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

And now comes the rub, who do you want ******* up Brexit and looking hopeless, Corbyn or May?

Well, from where I'm standing, May looks pretty hopeless already. I kind of think that Jeremy is principled enough, and honest enough, to say "We've done our best and it isn't going to work, but we can fix up a compromise". If the economy really does look like tanking because of Brexit, maybe they'll all be begging the PM, whoever they are, to stop it. Look on the bright side, we might all be killed by terrorists by then anyway.

Blickers
 
  3  
Reply Tue 6 Jun, 2017 03:24 pm
@izzythepush,
Quote izzy:
Quote:
I don't want Brexit either but I can't see it not happening. Maybe it will all fall apart, but it will have to be set up first.

Don't underestimate politicians' ability to change little but re-label it as something big. After many months of extended negotiations about things the public doesn't understand, mindboggling details and nonstop tradeoffs, the end result might well turn out to be pretty much the same as now but with the nomenclature changed.

And people won't mind because by the end, the desire to get it over with will far outweigh any concerns about if anything is really different.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Tue 6 Jun, 2017 04:19 pm
@centrox,
Or Trump could have fucked the planet over by then.
Blickers
 
  3  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 08:22 am
I was just thinking that maybe the UK voters are beginning to consider that the right-wing extremism in the West, fueled partly by a reaction to Islamic terrorism and manipulated by Russia, was a one year phenomenon which had run its course. Brexit and Trump were victories for the right wing/Russian alliance, but then the defeat of Geert Wilders, the electoral slaughter of Le Pen, and the swift unravelling of Trump's Administration all indicate that Western voters are now going the other way.

If that's the case, if Corbyn actually does become Prime Minister, it's entirely possible that the Brexit might become so watered down in negotiations that everyone might wonder at the end what the fuss was about.
revelette1
 
  5  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 09:01 am
@Blickers,
Well, I hope you turn out to be right. I hope May does lose and this Brexit is at least slowed down.

Too bad it is not already time to replace Trump/Pence. While we on miracles, I hope there are more surprising decisions such as the USSC striking down NC redristicting between now and mid term elections.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  4  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 10:05 am
@Blickers,
Farage linked Brexit with Trump, but there's really no connection. Brexit did not bring in a far right party, it was mostly old gits voting for how things could be like the good old days again. The gutter press did their bit to reinforce Leave's lies and they were lies chief being extra money to the NHS.
eurocelticyankee
 
  3  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 10:29 am
@izzythepush,
I had hoped Labour would run on a anti-brexit platform, but not to be.
I don't believe a 52% to 48% majority would have been that hard to overturn.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 11:41 am
@eurocelticyankee,
You'd think so, but the news is full of interviews with Remain voters who, 'Just want to get on with it.'
centrox
 
  5  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 12:57 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:
You'd think so, but the news is full of interviews with Remain voters who, 'Just want to get on with it.'

Bloody fools, as my Dad would have said. I voted against leaving the EU because I thought it was a crazy and idiotic step, and the fact that the Leave campaign very narrowly won the vote doesn't stop me thinking that, and hoping that the consequences will be so daunting (as I believe they will be) that the damned fools will be put off.

0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 01:01 pm
According to an Exclusive report @ The Independent, an eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for gives Ms May a ten-point lead indicating an 74 seat majority.
centrox
 
  3  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 01:07 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

According to an Exclusive report @ The Independent, an eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for gives Ms May a ten-point lead indicating an 74 seat majority.

The Southampton University-based Polling Observatory pointed out that the variation in the size of the lead among the pollsters from 10 to 12 points on ICM and Comres to 2 to 4 points on Yougov and Survation is almost wholly down to the different adjustments being applied for turnout, particularly among younger and poorer voters. Whistling in dark, maybe, but I have talked to a lot of young people who have told me they have registered to vote for the first time, specifically to vote Labour. May got booed by butchers when she went to speak at a meat market.

YouGov’s poll published on Wednesday (today) – which does not adjust for lower historic turnouts for younger and poorer voters – put Labour just four points behind on 38% to the Tories 42% which would leave May 24 seats short of an overall majority in a hung parliament. The extent to which youngsters and poorer voters turn out will decide where, between 24 seats short, and a 70 seat majority, the final result will be for the Tories.




0 Replies
 
centrox
 
  5  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 01:09 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:
Remain voters who, 'Just want to get on with it.'

They are like someone saying "I voted against being executed, but now I've lost the vote, please hurry up and cut my head off"
0 Replies
 
Below viewing threshold (view)
centrox
 
  4  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 03:51 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

According to an Exclusive report @ The Independent, an eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for gives Ms May a ten-point lead indicating an 74 seat majority.


The Independent also said yesterday:

Quote:
Survation poll suggests election race is neck and neck

The Survation poll for Good Morning Britain (GMB) put the Tories on 41.5 per cent with Labour on 40.4 per cent.

If such a result were replicated on Thursday it would put the Conservatives' majority in Parliament in jeopardy.


1.1% !!!

Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 06:33 pm
The Brexist vote was a referendum and the majority of UK voters chose to leave.

If the Labour Party gains power and overturns the expressed will of the people by fiat they will not remain in power for long.

Calling for a second referendum is a possibility though.
camlok
 
  -3  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 07:54 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
The Brexist vote was a referendum and the majority of UK voters chose to leave.

If the Labour Party gains power and overturns the expressed will of the people by fiat they will not remain in power for long.

Calling for a second referendum is a possibility though.


Doesn't what is contained in the last sentence mean the same as that of the second?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 7 Jun, 2017 10:58 pm
@centrox,
Much will depend on last-minute decisions and the turnout, especially by younger voters.
0 Replies
 
Rudolph Hucker
 
  -3  
Reply Thu 8 Jun, 2017 01:29 am
What do pollsters know?

Corbyn and team do not stand a chance, as the ordinary voter, whatever their persuasion, will ask themselves one question when in the ballot box, voting slip in hand:

Could this bunch of idealistic numpties organise a piss up in a brewery, let alone run a country?

Landslide for the Tories I forecast. Shame really, because a decent opposition is a healthy thing.

105 tory majority.

centrox
 
  3  
Reply Thu 8 Jun, 2017 02:37 am
@Rudolph Hucker,
Is your name rhyming slang?
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Thu 8 Jun, 2017 03:00 am
@centrox,
I think it might be another one of Romeo's sockpuppets.

Good opinion piece in today's Grauniad.
Quote:

For the fourth time in three years, Britain is once again at a moment of reckoning. Since 2014, powerful forces have threatened to pull us apart. Bonds of trust and respect have been damaged by a series of votes that have divided us from each other and the rest of the world. Next week, the British people have a chance to change that: to begin unwinding a political project of isolationist policies that with Brexit has seeded a fear of the future; to dispense with an economy where chief executives’ pay races ahead while the poorer half of the population sees income fall; to jettison the Victorian idea that moral courage and enterprise could replace the state in securing people’s freedom from want, ignorance and disease. The opportunity to reverse direction is the outcome of a series of votes that have shaken post-crash Britain. These started with SNP dominance in the wake of the Scottish independence referendum. The vote last year on Britain’s membership of the European Union has also shrunk, for very different reasons, Ukip and the Liberal Democrats. The result is that, in England and Wales, we have the return of two-party politics and a straight choice between a Labour or a Conservative government.

These votes have shown an undoubted, if perhaps inchoate, wish for a different, fairer, better and more decent Britain – one that is less divided and more socially just; one that is more hopeful and less fearful. People are worn down by an economy that depends on stagnating pay to shore up employment and a hollowing out of civic life.

The Conservatives do not deserve our vote. Their claim that they will use the power of the state to help people and promise to raise the living wage, build affordable housing and deal with spiralling energy prices is a welcome development but one not matched by their policies. Their uncosted manifesto is a diversion from the consistently callous and negligent record in office. This has seen food banks become a feature of our communities, seen school budgets cut for the first time for 20 years and left patients waiting longer than ever in hospitals that are mired in deficits. Tory economics has created a new working class of people with jobs but in poverty. Instead of being serious about rebuilding the public finances without loading the costs on to the poor, the Tory party wants to bring back foxhunting and ask new mothers who have been raped for verification if they wish to claim benefits for more than two children.

The Conservatives have also opted for an overtly hardline approach on Brexit – driving their support with a false claim that Britain is under attack by either internal or external enemies. It ends up with the Tories promoting the worst possible outcome for Brexit Britain: walking away from the EU without a deal and an immigration policy that will undermine growth not create it. This would be a disaster for all of us, cutting us off from our biggest export market and neighbours with whom there are bonds of common endeavour. It is the intertwining of austerity with a hard Brexit that renders the Conservatives unfit for office. The Tory plan to win the election was for it to be a presidential contest, one centred on personalities rather than policies. The idea was to present Theresa May as a strong leader who would be better at getting a good deal for Britain from Brussels than Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn. She chose to hold an unnecessary election for which there was no appetite.
Her campaign has been grimly negative and entirely joyless. Her jumpy U-turn on her social care proposals revealed Mrs May to be a poor judge of campaign tactics. It was especially foolish because it was presented as part of an intergenerational conflict over shrinking resources. Mrs May is reluctant to risk much interaction with voters and is evasive with journalists. Her failure to call out Donald Trump’s destructive impulse over the climate change accord speaks volumes. We should disregard the propaganda masquerading as news from the acolyte press: as Mrs May’s credibility on the campaign has withered, Mr Corbyn’s has grown. Mr Corbyn unquestionably has his flaws. Many see him as a fluke, a fringe candidate who stole the Labour leadership while the rest of his party was asleep. In parliament he failed to reach beyond his faction. He is not fluent on the issues raised by a modern, sophisticated digital economy. His record of protest explains why some struggle to see him as prime minister.

But Labour’s leader has had a good campaign. He has been energetic and effective on the stump, comfortable in his own skin and in the presence of others. He clearly likes people and is interested in them. He has generated an unfamiliar sense of the possible; once again, people are excited by politics. The campaign itself has been unexpectedly strategic, based on a manifesto adroitly pitched both at energising Labour’s base and the under-35s, who have responded with rare enthusiasm. That manifesto quickened political pulses. It’s not perfect – it over-emphasises the state and fails to tackle Tory benefit cuts – but it is a genuine attempt to address a failing social and economic model. In many ways, it is a painful reminder of how much of our collective sense of social justice and community spirit has been lost since 2010. Labour has set the terms of the political debate: most notably with a Keynesian response of increasing public investment, and increasing public spending financed by higher taxes, to stimulate the economy so that the country ends up wealthier than anything proposed under Tory plans.


If centre-left politicians want to regain support for their policies, they must find ways of engaging with provincial Britain – with its economic needs, its sense of place, and its estrangement from the corridors of power – as well as courting urban citadels. In talking about the big questions – about the inequality of wealth and power – in moral terms, of what is right and wrong, Mr Corbyn is on to something resonant, something common, something good. If he were to win, then he must respect all of the party’s traditions, rebuild the Labour coalition in the Commons and recruit the party’s best talents into government. Labour needs to find a convincing voice to conduct tricky Brexit talks. Mr Corbyn would need to stick to the manifesto: most important, given Labour’s economic reputation, to show that his party can unlock growth through careful and prudent stewardship to pay for the public goods it wishes to deliver.

Our desire is for a Labour government, but our priority is to stop the Conservatives. All politics is local and there are unique dynamics in Britain’s 650 constituencies. The electoral script in Scotland is now plainly different and we will consider the options there in a separate editorial. Similarly, Northern Ireland has its own narrative. There are many reasons to vote Lib Dem, not least their campaign for membership of the EU’s single market and reform of the voting system. Likewise, the Green party – and the epoch-shaping concern over the environment – should not be dismissed. Our support for Labour does not mean a “progressive alliance” of like-minded parties should be discarded. It should be embraced as an idea, but one whose time has not come. To limit the Tories by tactical voting makes sense.

Forecasts in politics are based on the premise “if present trends continue” and it is in the nature of trends to change. That is what makes this election so interesting. We do not know what political groups are coalescing, what realignments are taking place. Politics is changing. What seems important today, history may well judge irrelevant. An election is a chance to snatch a cup from the stream of public opinion. While we stare into its depths, the river rushes on. Most pundits think the voters will repudiate Mr Corbyn’s Labour party. They may do so. But Mr Corbyn has shown that the party might be the start of something big rather than the last gasp of something small. On 8 June, Labour deserves our vote.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2017/jun/02/the-guardian-view-on-our-vote-its-labour
 

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