Bush supporters' aftermath thread

Parsing the Polls: A New Fix Feature
Beginning today, The Fix debuts a weekly feature -- Parsing the Polls -- aimed at highlighting a handful of important (or just plain interesting) political surveys over the last week and providing context and commentary about them.

With polling playing an ever-increasing role in the business of politics and policy, it's important to not only understand what the numbers say but also the story behind them. We'll look at national polling as well as surveys conducted in individual House, Senate and gubernatorial races each week in an attempt to give Fix readers a sense of what the mood is not only in your state but also across the country. As with all Fix features, we want your feedback on the polls mentioned (and those we didn't mention but should have). Feel free to either post in the comments section or drop me an e-mail.

To the data!

* CNN/USA Today/Gallup (In the field from Nov. 11-13, testing 1,006 adults with a 3 percent margin of error): This is the most recent in a series of national surveys showing President George W. Bush in freefall -- just 37 percent of respondents approved of the job he is doing compared to 60 percent who expressed disapproval. This mimics the results found in the Washington Post/ABC News poll released earlier this month. (This great chart tracks the president's falling favorability rating as measured by the Post/ABC surveys.)

The CNN poll also shows that Bush seems to have no major issue where he is winning a majority of the public's support. On the handling of terrorism, which has been Bush's strong suit since the Sept. 11 attacks, 48 percent approve while 49 percent disapprove. The numbers are considerably more stark on Bush's handling of the economy (37 percent approve/61 percent disapprove) and Iraq (35 percent approve/63 percent disapprove).

One note of caution: The poll tested "adults" -- the broadest of potential samples. Within the polling business, tests of either registered or likely voters are seen as a better predictor of the mood among those who will vote in future elections.

* Newark Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers (Nov. 8-11, 444 voters, 4.69 percent margin of error): This poll, taken in the immediate aftermath of Sen. Jon Corzine's gubernatorial victory last Tuesday, provides an interesting window into why voters picked the Democratic senator over Republican businessman Doug Forrester.

The top reason cited was "the candidate's political party" -- a significant advantage for Corzine given that John Kerry won the Garden State by seven points last November. The second most important factor for voters was "Forrester's association with President Bush," which was cited as a motivating factor by 40 percent of the sample.

Issues seemed to play a lesser role in determining which candidate voters chose; Forrester led Corzine as the person more able to lower property taxes and deal with corruption in the state's government -- the two issues 57 percent of those tested said were most important for the next governor to address. Forrester was unable to turn that support into a overall victory in last week's election.

* Siena Research Institute (Nov. 9-11, 622 registered voters, 4 percent margin of error): The latest poll in the 2006 New York Senate race seems to indicate that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) is headed for an easy reelection win, a victory that many expect to be the precursor to a 2008 presidential bid.

In a head-to-head matchup with former Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the likely Republican nominee, Clinton held a sizeable 59 percent to 31 percent edge. The 28 percent margin is unchanged from an October survey also done by Siena. Clinton enjoyed strong favorability ratings (60 percent) and a manageable unfavorable rating (34 percent). Nearly six-in-10 voters said they would vote to reelect her compared to just 36 percent who would "prefer someone else."

If her poll numbers continue to stay at this level, you can start breaking out the "Hillary '08" bumper stickers.

About 50 percent of people polled said they disliked Bush, with 6 percent claiming to hate the president.

Bush's overall approval mark matched the 37 percent rating of newly elected President Clinton in June 1993. (Interactive: Second-term slump)

When asked if they trust Bush more than they had Clinton, 48 percent of respondents said they trusted Bush less, while 36 percent said they trusted him more and 15 percent said they trusted Bush the same as Clinton.

For the first time, more than half of the public thinks Bush is not honest and trustworthy -- 52 percent to 46 percent.

A week ago, President Bush campaigned for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore, who lost the election a day later to Democratic Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine. (Full story)

In the poll, 56 percent of registered voters said they would be likely to vote against a local candidate supported by Bush, while 34 percent said the opposite.

Only 9 percent said their first choice in next year's elections would be a Republican who supports Bush on almost every major issue.

Forty-six percent said the country would be better off if Congress were controlled by Democrats, while 34 percent backed a GOP majority.

A large majority of Republicans -- 80 percent -- approve of Bush's performance, compared with 28 percent of independents and 7 percent of Democrats. Those results had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

<snip>

November 16, 2005, 8:38 a.m.
Selective Memories
The Dems remember what they want to about the road to war in Iraq.

bluesgirl wrote:

<snip>

bluesgirl: I realize you are new and all, but kindly recognize that the title of this thread begins "Bush Supporters ...." I know it can be confusing seeing Blatham et al. making all their unsolicited anti-Bush postings, but please don't take that as license for you to follow suit in this thread. It is not appreciated or welcome. I consider it SPAM.

However, that does not mean you aren't welcome to participate and contribute to the thread .... but it does mean that images from the movie "Clueless" posted contiguous to an image of Bush, is off-topic and is not contributing to anything being discussed -- even though you may find it tremendously clever.

I realize you have an urge to display your dislike of Bush. Please feel free to use any of the many anti-Bush threads there are at this site, including any of the many you have started yourself.

Tico is being all sweet and nice, but his rules for this thread don't prevent him from breaking them on the Democract thread and others. What a hypocrite.
---BBB

Ticomaya wrote:

bluesgirl wrote:

<snip>

bluesgirl: I realize you are new and all, but kindly recognize that the title of this thread begins "Bush Supporters ...." I know it can be confusing seeing Blatham et al. making all their unsolicited anti-Bush postings, but please don't take that as license for you to follow suit in this thread. It is not appreciated or welcome. I consider it SPAM.

However, that does not mean you aren't welcome to participate and contribute to the thread .... but it does mean that images from the movie "Clueless" posted contiguous to an image of Bush, is off-topic and is not contributing to anything being discussed -- even though you may find it tremendously clever.

I realize you have an urge to display your dislike of Bush. Please feel free to use any of the many anti-Bush threads there are at this site, including any of the many you have started yourself.

When asked if they trust Bush more than they had Clinton, 48 percent of respondents said they trusted Bush less, while 36 percent said they trusted him more and 15 percent said they trusted Bush the same as Clinton.

For the first time, more than half of the public thinks Bush is not honest and trustworthy -- 52 percent to 46 percent.

The Iraq invasion was supposed to help Israel.
(Although whether this is a likely outcome in the long run is debatable)
And it was designed to do so IMO.
I imaging Senator Lieberman is not declaring all his interest here.

blatham wrote:

When asked if they trust Bush more than they had Clinton, 48 percent of respondents said they trusted Bush less, while 36 percent said they trusted him more and 15 percent said they trusted Bush the same as Clinton.

For the first time, more than half of the public thinks Bush is not honest and trustworthy -- 52 percent to 46 percent.

Ok, I gotta comment on this. Where in this quote is the public asked whether or not Bush is honest and trustworthy? The only thing that can be derived from this posting is that more than half the public thinks Bush is at least as trustworthy as Clinton.

Seems to me that is a good thing, not a bad thing as blatham is trying to make it by changing what is being said.

Foxfyre

Your citing of my post just demonstrates how wild your imagination has become. If you think my post violated the TOS, then report me.

BBB

Tico is being all sweet and nice, but his rules for this thread don't prevent him from breaking them on the Democract thread and others. What a hypocrite.
---BBB