HofT wrote:Foxfyre - please cut nimh some slack. Keep in mind the basic rule of mathematical modelling (the robustness of a model is proportional to its predictive value) and consider that not only did nimh's model get the US election wrong (as previously posted by Timber) but it also got the EU constitutional referenda wrong.
Models which reliably predict the opposite of the observed result have their uses, too!
I'm glad that you've all gotten the "nimh's wrong inferences" bit out of your system. I know you must have been itching to say something of the sort and gotten increasingly frustrated over the years about not actually having been able to find any such wrong inferences.
Still, not to want to spoil your pleasure, but ehm, if I may ask, how
did I actually get the US election and EU constitutional referenda wrong?
On the
European Constitution, specifically, since you bring it up
HofT, can you remind me when I ever predicted the French and Dutch would vote in favour of it? Cause I sure cant remember that I did.
Actually, I dont think I ever made any prediction on the French referendum. And the only one I ever made on the Dutch one was:
Quote:I do predict the numbers will shift quickly towards approval once the campaign for the constitution starts up, with both all three right-wing government parties and two of the three leftwing opposition parties putting themselves on the line for it. But there's always the off-chance that this is exactly what will trigger a Fortuyn-type protest against "the establishment" and its regentesque "old politics".
Sounds like exactly what happened, to me.
As for the US election, I listed my successive predictions
in this post here, which HoT must have overlooked. As the elections drew nearer I got to have things closer than they turned out to be, it's true; but I dont see how I was much surprised by Bush's victory itself there, all in all - alas.
I'm guessing Timber and HofT mistook me for PDiddie. It wasnt me who was confidently doing the rounds predicting a Kerry victory - I had my own
Kerry-bashing thread. But I know - us liberals all look the same. Hard to keep track and all that.
See - I'll let you folks in on a little secret. It's possible to separate personal preference from (more) objective analysis. Like: I would
like this to happen or be true, but if I step away from my personal political passion for a moment, I can see that realistically, this is more likely.
Its not always as much fun as the glee-and-scorn stuff, true. But still, it comes warmly recommended!