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Results! Election night'04 ... your armchair expert analysis

 
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:34 am
Unreasonable is not impossible.

No room for uncertainty this year.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:35 am
Ohio can take up to eleven days, yes. But the race is over. As they've counted more votes, Kerry hasn't made up any ground. In fact from 93% to 100% (not counting provisional and absentee), he went backwards another 30,000. I heard on the news that many losers had much closer states at this point, but still had the grace to accept their fate. The longer they wait to throw in the towel, the more they'll be resented for it. Kerry's career has peaked anyway, but Edwards is still doing damage to his career.

Interestingly, the last thing Kerry said is that he didn't want a drawn out result. I guess this is his final flip-flop. Dry your eyes and show some dignity, John Kerry.
0 Replies
 
Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:36 am
I agree with Pan and CR.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:37 am
You can not WANT a drawn-out result and still feel the need to count every vote. I sure as heck don't want a drawn-out result.
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kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:38 am
gustavratzenhofer wrote:
And what could be more injurious to our nation than the presence of George W. Bush?


I'm with you Gus!
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:39 am
Me too.
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:43 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Interestingly, the last thing Kerry said is that he didn't want a drawn out result. I guess this is his final flip-flop. Dry your eyes and show some dignity, John Kerry.


Monitor your mouth and show some class Bill...for the sake of YOUR dignity
0 Replies
 
Thok
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:43 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Ohio can take up to eleven days, yes. But the race is over. As they've counted more votes, Kerry hasn't made up any ground. In fact from 93% to 100% (not counting provisional and absentee), he went backwards another 30,000. I heard on the news that many losers had much closer states at this point, but still had the grace to accept their fate. The longer they wait to throw in the towel, the more they'll be resented for it. Kerry's career has peaked anyway, but Edwards is still doing damage to his career.

Interestingly, the last thing Kerry said is that he didn't want a drawn out result. I guess this is his final flip-flop. Dry your eyes and show some dignity, John Kerry.


I suppose this statement is a replacment for McG who is absent so far.

In Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico there is the count still under way. In which the election could swing,yet.

If all votes are count, then I will congrats Bush.
0 Replies
 
Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:50 am
Thok wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Ohio can take up to eleven days, yes. But the race is over. As they've counted more votes, Kerry hasn't made up any ground. In fact from 93% to 100% (not counting provisional and absentee), he went backwards another 30,000. I heard on the news that many losers had much closer states at this point, but still had the grace to accept their fate. The longer they wait to throw in the towel, the more they'll be resented for it. Kerry's career has peaked anyway, but Edwards is still doing damage to his career.

Interestingly, the last thing Kerry said is that he didn't want a drawn out result. I guess this is his final flip-flop. Dry your eyes and show some dignity, John Kerry.


I suppose this statement is a replacment for McG who is absent so far.

In Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico there is the count still under way. In which the election could swing,yet.

If all votes are count, then I will congrats Bush.


Ohio is the only state that matters, at this point.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:51 am
panzade wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Interestingly, the last thing Kerry said is that he didn't want a drawn out result. I guess this is his final flip-flop. Dry your eyes and show some dignity, John Kerry.


Monitor your mouth and show some class Bill...for the sake of YOUR dignity
That may sound like gloating to you Panz, but it's not. I would hold Bush in no less contempt if the roles were reversed.

Thok, Ohio is all that matters. Bush wins a tie too. This delay is in vain. I think the 120,000,000 who took the trouble to vote deserved to wake up to some closure.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:52 am
I think the couple hundred thousand who voted in Ohio and whose votes might -- not a big chance, but a chance -- sway the election deserve to have their votes counted.
0 Replies
 
Thok
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 08:59 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:

Thok, Ohio is all that matters.


Ok...just saw it. Else is same as I wrote. If all votes are count and Bush wins, then I congrats him.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:02 am
Soz, that same argument could be made for every state in the Union (more realistically in some), in every election. If the remaining votes were Dane County, it would be no more realisitic.

Quote:
Dane 214/214 90,504
32.99% 181,271
66.07%


This one's over.
0 Replies
 
Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:05 am
http://www.coxandforkum.com/archives/04.11.02.AFreshStart-X.gif
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:06 am
Good morning everybody. Sorry I missed the party last night but was hosting one of my own that went from a solemn post mortum to cautious celebratory by the time I threw everybody out after midnight.

Some observations:

It appears that George Bush will mostly likely win with more votes than have ever been cast for the winning candidate and by a substantial majority of the popular vote.

It appears statistically highly improbable, if not impossible, for enough Ohio votes to be generated that would put Kerry over the top.

Though more cautious sources aren't yet calling them, it appears Bush has also won New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa.

The GOP has picked up seats in both the House and Senate which is further endorsement for the President and his policies.

I have never never seen the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P futures as high as they were this morning.

The Democrats and left wing media are already spinning that Bush's victory is so marginal as to be insignificant and no mandate.

The news media should fire their exit pollsters as this organization has proved to be pretty close to 100% incompetent. There is no way to determine how much, if any, their early leaked information affected the vote.

John Kerry could regain some of the respect he lost during the campaign by being magnanimous and graciously conceding at this point as 'it appears' ('appears' is his out in case the Ohio vote does turn the table for him) that Bush has prevailed. To again force the nation through another two weeks of uncertainty when his chances are slim to none is not the hallmark of a statesman.

George Bush and company should acknowledge that they did not get a large percentage of the vote and do a better job of educating and communicating this next four years.

Bill and Hillary Clinton are almost certainly turning cartwheels and breaking out the campagne to celebrate a discreet initiation for her run for the presidency in 2008.

The conventional wisdom is no longer reliable. The Washington Redskins cannnot dictate the outcome of an election with a win or loss and a high turnout is not an automatic win for the Democrats.
0 Replies
 
Thok
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:07 am
well, tsk.

They drew this very fast.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:09 am
Well, I am no longer curious as to why people with a higher IQ are more subject to depression.
0 Replies
 
Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:12 am
Quote:
Kerry Win Even Less Likely Now

Bush has increased his lead to more than 144 thousand in Ohio. Even hyper-partisan Kevin Drum sees little chance for Kerry:

Quote:


It is especially unlikely when one realizes that assuming that provisional ballots breaking for Kerry by 65% is beyon unlikely. If there are 175k provisional ballots, Kerry needs to win 158k (or 90%) of them to win. Unlikely is is too weak a word. Impossible is closer to reality.

Update: The spread keeps growing. It is up to 147k now. Here are the counties that have not completed counting:

Hamilton: 95% complete, 53% for Bush, almost 400k votes cast
Knox: 98% complete, 66% for Bush, 25k votes cast
Lucas: 95% complete, 60% for Kerry, 180k total votes cast

Given this, the more counting done means Bush is only going to pick up more votes.


Link
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:13 am
When Kerry resoundingly lost Florida last night, the election was over. I say, let's get over it.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Nov, 2004 09:16 am
If it's a statistical impossibility, I'm more amenable to that. Foxfyre's "appears" and then going ahead and counting the provisional ballots and seeing if there is a miracle would be OK.

So long as they're counted, and the results made known.
0 Replies
 
 

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