Foxfyre wrote:I thought on another thread, the graph showed that it was mostly likely Democrats jumping ship and voting for Bush that was the deciding factor though.
Yeah, it's both true.
The Independents in the end broke almost equally. So what made the difference in the end was the difference between the lock Democrats and Republicans had on their respective voter bases.
More Democrats voted for Bush than Republicans voted for Kerry. Thats one thing that decided these elections.
There's two ways of looking at that: you can say that Bush won thanks to making some Democrats vote for him; or that he won by stopping (m)any Republicans from voting for Kerry. Either way, the conclusion is that "Bush succeeded better in mobilising partisan Republicans than Kerry managed to mobilise partisan Democrats."
Comparing how Bush did it now compared with how he did it in 2000 though, it needs to be noted that
fewer Democrats voted for Bush now than back in 2000. Its just that in turn fewer Republicans voted for Kerry than for Gore in 2000.
The Republican camp remains more solidified behind their candidate than the Democrats are behind theirs, but both camps solidified and brought more of their voters 'home'. And thats where the second thing that decided the elections comes in and thats turnout.
Compared to 2000, the Republicans actually increased their turnout more than the Democrats did. So they simply weighed in more heavily than in 2000. Same with conservatives, but much more strongly still. (There's also the possibility that some of the same voters turned out but now more often defined themselves as conservative or Republican.)
So even though Kerry won the moderates and liberals, Democrats and Independents, and got a larger share of each of those groups' votes than Gore had gotten in 2000, it didn't do him any good, because he got fewer votes than Gore from Republicans and conservatives - and those groups weighed in more heavily than in 2000.
Does that help?