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Results! Election night'04 ... your armchair expert analysis

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 11:53 am
No, I am just about to leave for a work appointment, but the GOP does not want to eliminate the programs. It wants to make them practical, useful, expedient, and efficient. If I had had the right/ability to invest my social security all these years, I would be a multi-millionare today. GWB wants to give people a chance to invest at least 10% of their social security toward that end--to relieve the burden on the shrinking (proportionately) younger work force and enhance quality of life for seniors. If it is successful the entire program could gradually be changed over - or - in part left as it is for those who don't want the responsibility of self-determination. Because I didn't have the opportunity for self determination, my social security check is well below the poverty level and for any kind of quality of life has to be supplemented with something else.

Welfare was reformed in the 1990's through a GOP initiative and with cooperation from Bill Clinton, but it was an imperfect reform. It still does nothing to encourage self sufficiency and intact traditional families with a father in the home which is a child's best chance to escape poverty.

There is so much that can be done to help people live better. The difference between the parties is in the best way to do that. There is room for honest debate on these issues.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 11:53 am
He's the man. Period. The people of this country said so on 11/02/04.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 11:56 am
Quote:
He's the man. Period. The people of this country said so on 11/02/04.


51% of the country did. The rest of us still think he's an idiot.

Cycloptichorn
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:02 pm
I have suspicions about the privatisation plan. One is, that first and foremost it benefits investment firms. Second, how many people who work blue collar jobs are going to take advantage of it? Doesn't it require quite a bit of education to ensure that it's not done foolishly? And how many who work higher paying jobs need to? Don't most of those people have 401Ks anyway? What burden does it put on the government to sort it out? How will it affect people who are receiving benefits right now? Look, if it comes out good, I'll congratulate him for it, but right now I am mostly suspicious.

The biggest problem with the current social security system is that as we pay in, the government has taken out -- and spent. The benefits get cut and retirement ages extended because the money's been spent on other things. Period. This administration's first 4 years were no exception.

But what of the other programs? Will there be no cuts or eliminations of any social programs? What can you tell me that will relieve my uneasiness that this administration is trying to bankrupt us in order to cut these programs entirely?
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:04 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:
He's the man. Period. The people of this country said so on 11/02/04.


51% of the country did. The rest of us still think he's an idiot.

Cycloptichorn


51% of those who voted. <sigh>

Why don't more people vote? I'm not suggesting the result would be different, and I think the increase was good, but still, it's not a good turn-out.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:04 pm
It seems to me that the majority of Kerry supporters think Bush is a menace who needs to be stopped. And, since they are so much smarter than everyone else, I'm sure they all made it out to the polls. That would make 25% or so who think he's an idiot. 75% of the eligible voters didn't see the need to get rid of him at all. No wonder he's still the President.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:08 pm
Name any social program the GOP has cut, much less eliminated, in the last four years Freeduck? And name any anti-poverty program initiated by the Democrats that has eliiminated poverty for any but a tiny minority of the beneficiaries? There simply has to be a better way to do it.

If you feel you are too stupid to invest your social security wisely, the long range plan is for those who don't want to invest any of their social security to be able to stay on the existing system. How the government has used the social security fund is immaterial and has had zero affect on the beneficiaries of the program.

And if it is more important to you to punish investment firms or see that they do not benefit than it is to improve the quality of life for retiring seniors, I don't know what to say to that except that it sounds awfully irrationally liberal. Stocks and bonds invest in companies, services, and municipalities and help those who in turn provide the jobs and services for the people. It is simple economics. A rising tide does indeed lift all boats except those securely anchored to the bottom.

Obill is right. 75% of the people didn't see any reason to get rid of Bush and so they either voted for him or didn't vote against him. I would like to think at least some of those recognize that he does have s superior economic vision as well as being the superior leader and the best chance we have to keep the country safe.
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:24 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Name any social program the GOP has cut, much less eliminated, in the last four years Freeduck? And name any anti-poverty program initiated by the Democrats that has eliiminated poverty for any but a tiny minority of the beneficiaries? There simply has to be a better way to do it.


The questions I have are reasonable and legitimate ones to ask. You've chosen to answer them with questions of your own that aren't pertinent to this discussion.

Quote:

If you feel you are too stupid to invest your social security wisely, the long range plan is for those who don't want to invest any of their social security to be able to stay on the existing system. How the government has used the social security fund is immaterial and has had zero affect on the beneficiaries of the program.


This isn't about me. I don't count on having social security and so I've already made other arrangements. I wouldn't take advantage of a 'manage 10% of it' plan as I don't have time to deal with it.

Quote:

And if it is more important to you to punish investment firms or see that they do not benefit than it is to improve the quality of life for retiring seniors, I don't know what to say to that except that it sounds awfully irrationally liberal. Stocks and bonds invest in companies, services, and municipalities and help those who in turn provide the jobs and services for the people. It is simple economics. A rising tide does indeed lift all boats except those securely anchored to the bottom.


I don't know where you got the idea that I want to punish investment firms. In fact, you've flown back into your overly generalized invective. I am suspicious of this administration because everything they've done that was purported to be for the benefit of people has been a cleverly masked giveaway to his biggest contributors. I'm entitled to my skepticism. And I am suspicious of people who make insulting claims regarding what types of people voted Democratic, which is how this whole discussion came about.
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:32 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
I have suspicions about the privatisation plan. One is, that first and foremost it benefits investment firms. Second, how many people who work blue collar jobs are going to take advantage of it? Doesn't it require quite a bit of education to ensure that it's not done foolishly? And how many who work higher paying jobs need to? Don't most of those people have 401Ks anyway? What burden does it put on the government to sort it out? How will it affect people who are receiving benefits right now? Look, if it comes out good, I'll congratulate him for it, but right now I am mostly suspicious.

The biggest problem with the current social security system is that as we pay in, the government has taken out -- and spent. The benefits get cut and retirement ages extended because the money's been spent on other things. Period. This administration's first 4 years were no exception.

But what of the other programs? Will there be no cuts or eliminations of any social programs? What can you tell me that will relieve my uneasiness that this administration is trying to bankrupt us in order to cut these programs entirely?


Freeduck - I suggest you talk with your CPA. If he knows his stuff, he could most probably enlighten you. This is, of course, assuming you have no prejudice against wealth in your future. It won't be all that complicated and there will be checks and balances in place for those that are too nervous to attempt it.

The stock market and the investment firms will profit regardless, but more so with Bush's plan...that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Speaking of the stock market....with the Republican victory, many of us have already made some serious money (including George Soros, no doubt). :wink:
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:35 pm
Well I was only responding to your own comments Freeduck, and I long ago accepted that you are anti Bush, anti GOP, and anti conservative policies. I for many MANY reasons believe my side is more right than yours for reasons stated here. I base my opinions on long experience and observations about what works and what doesn't. I believe you're wrong on almost all counts, and I believe you are sincere in your beliefs while you do not care to challenge them.

And I am now late for my appointment and must go. Will be back later.
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 12:53 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Well I was only responding to your own comments Freeduck, and I long ago accepted that you are anti Bush, anti GOP, and anti conservative policies. I for many MANY reasons believe my side is more right than yours for reasons stated here. I base my opinions on long experience and observations about what works and what doesn't. I believe you're wrong on almost all counts, and I believe you are sincere in your beliefs while you do not care to challenge them.

And I am now late for my appointment and must go. Will be back later.


Sorry, where I'm from a sighing I'm right and your wrong doesn't cut it. I think we would get a lot further in all of these discussions if you did a lot less assuming -- it's extraordinarily distracting.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 09:30 pm
FreeDuck, you're a floating voter right? I mean, you actually did vote for the GOP didn't you - or just for Ross Perot?

Anyway, I came in here to post a "fact of the day" on the results:

Quote:
here's an extremely telling piece of exit polling data from yesterday: Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, [Kerry] also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000--a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.)


(Above quote from TNR, but you can doublecheck the numbers here, look for "vote by ideology")
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 09:38 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
I hope somebody was able to come up with a good demographic map that will show how mainstream most the GOP vote is and out of the mainstream most of the Dem vote is.

Whats your definition of mainstream? If the elctorate splits up in two halves of almost the same size (say, 48 out of 100 people on one side, 51 out of 100 people on the other), how can you say one is "mainstream" and the other is not?

And talking of mainstream ... <looks back up at previous post which explains how Bush got a 51% majority of all voters even while he lost among both liberals and moderates>
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 09:40 pm
That's interesting, nimh. Yeah, I'm a floaty votey. I have no party loyalty. I vote mostly third party and independent, but now and again I dance with the elephant and the donkey.

I was talking to dtom on another thread about how I thought that a lot of independents walked on the left side this election partly because of the galvanizing rhetoric on the right. It looks like, from your data, that might be the case.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2004 09:45 pm
Yes, I'm just now looking at other basic breakdowns and it looks like not just moderates, but independents, too, gave the nod to Kerry (be it by a very narrow margin, 49%/48%). But the effect of that was outdone by how Bush succeeded better in mobilising partisan Republicans than Kerry managed to mobilise partisan Democrats.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Nov, 2004 12:01 am
I thought on another thread, the graph showed that it was mostly likely Democrats jumping ship and voting for Bush that was the deciding factor though.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Nov, 2004 09:13 am
Foxfyre wrote:
I thought on another thread, the graph showed that it was mostly likely Democrats jumping ship and voting for Bush that was the deciding factor though.

Yeah, it's both true.

The Independents in the end broke almost equally. So what made the difference in the end was the difference between the lock Democrats and Republicans had on their respective voter bases.

More Democrats voted for Bush than Republicans voted for Kerry. Thats one thing that decided these elections.

There's two ways of looking at that: you can say that Bush won thanks to making some Democrats vote for him; or that he won by stopping (m)any Republicans from voting for Kerry. Either way, the conclusion is that "Bush succeeded better in mobilising partisan Republicans than Kerry managed to mobilise partisan Democrats."

Comparing how Bush did it now compared with how he did it in 2000 though, it needs to be noted that fewer Democrats voted for Bush now than back in 2000. Its just that in turn fewer Republicans voted for Kerry than for Gore in 2000.

The Republican camp remains more solidified behind their candidate than the Democrats are behind theirs, but both camps solidified and brought more of their voters 'home'. And thats where the second thing that decided the elections comes in and thats turnout.

Compared to 2000, the Republicans actually increased their turnout more than the Democrats did. So they simply weighed in more heavily than in 2000. Same with conservatives, but much more strongly still. (There's also the possibility that some of the same voters turned out but now more often defined themselves as conservative or Republican.)

So even though Kerry won the moderates and liberals, Democrats and Independents, and got a larger share of each of those groups' votes than Gore had gotten in 2000, it didn't do him any good, because he got fewer votes than Gore from Republicans and conservatives - and those groups weighed in more heavily than in 2000.

Does that help?
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Nov, 2004 09:18 am
Meanwhile, a Dutch paper reported that Dallas elected a black lesbian as their new sheriff?

Wowza! Very Happy
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Nov, 2004 09:26 am
Wowza, indeed! She must be pretty tough.
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Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Nov, 2004 09:29 am
FreeDuck wrote:
Wowza, indeed! She must be pretty tough.


That is fine, it is not unconstitutional and reflects the community values of that particular electorate.

It is the way of our Republic.
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